He's very solid and consistent, but still probably more likely he doesn't make the 2024 team than he does. With all of the top Americans in one race it's likely a few will have a good day, so he'd have to have a great day to be top 3. I'd still take Mantz before Fauble, if Rupp was racing to be top American instead of top individual I think he'd still beat Fauble. If Rupp goes out in 66 like Fauble then he'd beat Fauble. Same can probably be said for Leonard. At the trials those two guys will have no reason to go out crazy fast, making it more likely they have a decent day for themselves instead of blowing up. So I'd say Rupp/Korir/Mantz are all more likely still, and can't forget about Kibet. And then some of the recent 2:09 guys from Chicago have entered the chat. And as I said earlier, there are a lot of guys in the 2:11-2:13 range, it wouldn't be crazy for a couple of them to bump up into the 2:09-2:10 range in the next 14 months before the trials and become a real contender to be top 3. No one is a lock to be top 3, and I wouldn't say Fauble is at the top of the list of most likely. But he's clearly in the running.
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November 06, 2022
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The Pro Runners Speak at 2022 New York City Marathon Media Day
November 03, 2022
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Scott Fauble First American thread
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Argue better wrote:
Fauble did what he does…Ran a race that ensured he wouldn’t blow up and he can walk away happy and with $. It’s more the other Americans were a disaster. Mentioning his time as a disappointment is a joke…this race, with the weather was clearly 5-6+ min slower than a fast course on a nice day. Just go through PBs of the top finishers.
All Fauble does is (more often than not) run himself into the Top 10 at each World Marathon Major that he does. Such a tragedy.
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crazzzzzzy wrote:
Was it about shoes? wrote:
He didn't say he ditched Hoka because of the shoes. Rory hinted that it was one of the reasons he did. Not the only one; the main reason was the training program, which was very marathon-specific. He preferred more faster stuff, like 10k-specific intervals. But Faubs didn't mention shoes in any press I read. He'd be able to wear the new Hoka now if he'd stayed.
And more importantly, he didn't leave Hoka FOR NIKE. He didn't have any deal with them at the time or until last night. He simply went back to the brand he ran his first 20k miles in. He came from a Nike school and NAZ was probably the first time he had another brand on his feet given that high schoolers are 99% Nike shod. I'm just saying it's not a huge Nike endorsement when a guy who started in them and is used to them (but without a deal) wears them. And he actually trained in something else, it seems from that recent 12-mile video and his comments on needing to get a Nike trainer last night would suggest.
Incidentally, his Vaporflies gave him about 1 second per mile in Boston compared to the Carbon Rocket - not the Rocket X, which was quite a bit better. So, it doesn't seem like a Nell Rojas situation, where she'll wear Nike and only Nike no matter what. He was open to contracts from anyone, it seemed listening to him talk. Not sure how proud Uncle Phil shoulf be of him or how loyal he really is to them.
You all are crazy if you think he's being paid well. As soon as he left Hoka he was in Nike. They knew he was going to race in them and knew the Americans were weak and he would most likely be the first across the line. I'm sure the base is tiny with bonuses, which he probably earned today. Ask OLY gold medalist Gwen how much she got paid by Nike. 5k. He's certainly not getting 100k. Maybe 10-20.
I wrote the post you responded to and I don't think we disagree. He's not getting much. I mentioned he's different from Nell in that he seemed to be open to Saucony's phone call, but they are very similar in this way:
She's going to race in Nike, period. They can pay her $1M a year and she will be swoosh-loyal for life. They can pay her $0 and she will be too. If I'm Nike, I'm going much closer to the latter.
Faubs was going to, for this race at least, wear them. If they give him some enourmous multi-year contract, or if they don't give him anything. He's wearing them unless Saucony or whoever opens the checkbook.
And although it's true that he immediately put on a pair of VFs after ditching Hoka (and got 1 second per mile compared to what Hoka had 4 years ago - presumably less compared to what they sell now, and even less compared against what Ali wore yesterday) I still believe that's not necessarily a huge endorsement.
Nike is so ingrained in American culture that high school runners are unwilling to wear anything else. Peer pressure - very inportant to teenagers - requires it. Look at Newbury Park. Nico actually continued to wear Nike for his first year at NAU, an adidas-sponsored school. The also have to NCAA pretty well under control. I think the entire P5, but certainly the Pac-12, from which US distance runners seem to come (and have for decades - look at the results of the big race in RWTB). NAU is the only exception I'm aware of with a meaningful distance impact.
When you see post-collegiate non-sponsored Americans lurking around, they're often just wearing what they know. If you got out of Stanford or BYU a couple years back, you've never worn a non-Nike shoe unless you're a star and attracted a sponshorship. It's what all of OAC wore before joining them. (And for a year after, too.) When On said 'wear whatever you want,' none of them wore adidas. Even Ritz ran 90% of his lifetime miles with the swoosh on foot. It's the starting point.
Rojas further poisoned the waters for guys like Faubs when she took adidas money, lived on it for a buildup, got her bills paid up for the next year, then ditched them before race day to wear Nike. No one else is touching her again. They don't trust she'll actually still be with them on the NY or Boston start line. She really is so Nike-loyal that she will under no circumstance race in anything else. After Nell scamming adidas for half a year of living expenses, every company in the industry knows 2 things:
1. Super loyal Nike wearers are not worth paying if you're any other brand. They're going to wear what they're used to even if you pay them not to. (Josette Norris)
2. If you're Nike, you don't have to pay them much. They'll be your biggest cheerleaders for free. They will actually pay you to buy shoes. (Again, Norris)
This is why it is clear Faubs is not getting 100k/year.
36 -
It’s time Scott Fauble gets the letsrun clout and respect he deserves. Galen’s washed up you nerds. Someone put faubs in the bubble house
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Wise Old Man wrote:
Argue better wrote:
Knocking Fauble for being top American is strange. It’s not his fault every other American fell apart. The race was hyped as the deepest American field ever. Korir has run 2:07 and finished 3rd American. Shadrack Kipchirchir, a 27:07 10k guy, ran 2:28!!! Rupp DNF. Martin Hehir 2:35.
Fauble did what he does…Ran a race that ensured he wouldn’t blow up and he can walk away happy and with $. It’s more the other Americans were a disaster. Mentioning his time as a disappointment is a joke…this race, with the weather was clearly 5-6+ min slower than a fast course on a nice day. Just go through PBs of the top finishers.
I’m not knocking Fauble at all. He’s a guy maximizing his talent. As you point out, he’s smart and consistent. I’m knocking the state of US marathon racing at the elite pro level. If your satisfied with it, good for you. Yes, I’m just a fan and hobby jogger, but think we should expect better across the board, tough not necessarily from Fauble.
Right, don’t get it twisted. Knocking starting a thread for lauding the “top American finisher at NYCM” who was nowhere close to contending for the podium isn’t by extension knocking Fauble. His prize money and bonus aren’t diminished because of any reply on here. It’s just not something a lot of fans deem remarkable with performances from Rupp, Ryan Hall, Meb, and even Mantz in recent memory. Fauble isn’t in their class, I’m sure there’s no disagreement on that. Even if he makes the team for Paris, so what? What we’re saying is this is an omen of a slump in domestic marathon development.
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^^^
I wouldn't really say we're in a slump. We've got four separate individuals who finished top 10 at either Boston/Chicago/New York (Fauble/Kibet/Mantz/Fisher) and several others just outside 10th, and a record number of sub 2:10's in a single year (Mantz/Fauble/Kibet/Rupp/McDonald/Panning, maybe missed one or two more?), and also a record number of sub 61 half marathon guys with Mantz/Lara/Simbassa/Erassa in one year. And Rupp isn't even in these stats that I just mentioned because he dropped out of New York and didn't race any other world major or half marathon races. Simbassa will likely be in the 2024 marathon trials and should be yet another sub 2:10 guy, probably by quite a bit. And then one of our next great marathoners, Joe Klecker, is just a couple years away from entering the discussion. He'll likely be a 2:07 guy if I had to guess and a consistent top 10 finisher in races like Chicago/New York/Boston... We haven't had any consistent podium people in the past couple decades, so just because we didn't have someone on the podium this year doesn't mean we're worse than normal.
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I think the situation that the US system runs into is that it takes time and money to train for a pro marathon. It takes years of post collegiate running to knock out a quality marathon. Most runners don’t have the luxury of waiting that long, life is too expensive these days. Healthcare, rent, cars, travel to meets is all sky high. A couple of chosen ones can get sponsored out of college but rarely do the shoes companies go for exclusively road racers. We want someone to transition from the track to the roads.
There is a limit on the talent pool at 23 years old and hopefully those people make it work.
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Not Nell wrote:
Nell I’m guessing $24,000 base. She signed with Adidas for more, then paid them back to get out of her contract, stating she wanted to run in Nike and she has family support. I think Nike sees some promise in her and her ability to market herself. She’s very personable, unlike Fauble who is not.
Nell has a very successful coaching business where I'd say she makes low 6-figures. Hence why she felt comfortable dropping Adidas: sponsorship is not her primary source of income
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Time and Money wrote:
I think the situation that the US system runs into is that it takes time and money to train for a pro marathon. It takes years of post collegiate running to knock out a quality marathon. Most runners don’t have the luxury of waiting that long, life is too expensive these days. Healthcare, rent, cars, travel to meets is all sky high. A couple of chosen ones can get sponsored out of college but rarely do the shoes companies go for exclusively road racers. We want someone to transition from the track to the roads.
There is a limit on the talent pool at 23 years old and hopefully those people make it work.
Most road races with elite athletes pay for travel/lodging. Especially races like New York marathon where they also get food stipend and many athletes get 'appearance fee' contracts and some performance incentives.
And unpopular opinion, but what healthcare? Most people in their 20's never use their health insurance, and you can buy your own for a few hundred dollars a month. You can work a part time job and train a couple hours a day (which is a lot of training). Elite athletes are doing easy runs at 7 minute pace and workouts way faster. 90 minutes of running per day gets them 100 mile weeks. Let's not act like it takes all day to train, there is plenty of time to work. And most top 10-15 ranked US marathoners have contracts and don't have to work much if at all.
Let's not act like a ton of countries are way better than the US in the marathon. You've got a couple African countries and Japan. It's worth mentioning that most of the fastest marathons in the world are not in the United States. You see a lot of 2:03-2:06 times in the world run every year, but not many of them are on US soil, where most Americans are running their races.
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Makes Paper wrote:
Argue better wrote:
Fauble did what he does…Ran a race that ensured he wouldn’t blow up and he can walk away happy and with $. It’s more the other Americans were a disaster. Mentioning his time as a disappointment is a joke…this race, with the weather was clearly 5-6+ min slower than a fast course on a nice day. Just go through PBs of the top finishers.
All Fauble does is (more often than not) run himself into the Top 10 at each World Marathon Major that he does. Such a tragedy.
You've got an incredibly low standard for what constitutes a tragedy.
31 -
Hot Takes wrote:
Time and Money wrote:
I think the situation that the US system runs into is that it takes time and money to train for a pro marathon. It takes years of post collegiate running to knock out a quality marathon. Most runners don’t have the luxury of waiting that long, life is too expensive these days. Healthcare, rent, cars, travel to meets is all sky high. A couple of chosen ones can get sponsored out of college but rarely do the shoes companies go for exclusively road racers. We want someone to transition from the track to the roads.
There is a limit on the talent pool at 23 years old and hopefully those people make it work.
Most road races with elite athletes pay for travel/lodging. Especially races like New York marathon where they also get food stipend and many athletes get 'appearance fee' contracts and some performance incentives.
And unpopular opinion, but what healthcare? Most people in their 20's never use their health insurance, and you can buy your own for a few hundred dollars a month. You can work a part time job and train a couple hours a day (which is a lot of training). Elite athletes are doing easy runs at 7 minute pace and workouts way faster. 90 minutes of running per day gets them 100 mile weeks. Let's not act like it takes all day to train, there is plenty of time to work. And most top 10-15 ranked US marathoners have contracts and don't have to work much if at all.
Let's not act like a ton of countries are way better than the US in the marathon. You've got a couple African countries and Japan. It's worth mentioning that most of the fastest marathons in the world are not in the United States. You see a lot of 2:03-2:06 times in the world run every year, but not many of them are on US soil, where most Americans are running their races.
Exactly!
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It IS crazy wrote:
crazzzzzzy wrote:
You all are crazy if you think he's being paid well. As soon as he left Hoka he was in Nike. They knew he was going to race in them and knew the Americans were weak and he would most likely be the first across the line. I'm sure the base is tiny with bonuses, which he probably earned today. Ask OLY gold medalist Gwen how much she got paid by Nike. 5k. He's certainly not getting 100k. Maybe 10-20.
I wrote the post you responded to and I don't think we disagree. He's not getting much. I mentioned he's different from Nell in that he seemed to be open to Saucony's phone call, but they are very similar in this way:
She's going to race in Nike, period. They can pay her $1M a year and she will be swoosh-loyal for life. They can pay her $0 and she will be too. If I'm Nike, I'm going much closer to the latter.
Faubs was going to, for this race at least, wear them. If they give him some enourmous multi-year contract, or if they don't give him anything. He's wearing them unless Saucony or whoever opens the checkbook.
And although it's true that he immediately put on a pair of VFs after ditching Hoka (and got 1 second per mile compared to what Hoka had 4 years ago - presumably less compared to what they sell now, and even less compared against what Ali wore yesterday) I still believe that's not necessarily a huge endorsement.
Nike is so ingrained in American culture that high school runners are unwilling to wear anything else. Peer pressure - very inportant to teenagers - requires it. Look at Newbury Park. Nico actually continued to wear Nike for his first year at NAU, an adidas-sponsored school. The also have to NCAA pretty well under control. I think the entire P5, but certainly the Pac-12, from which US distance runners seem to come (and have for decades - look at the results of the big race in RWTB). NAU is the only exception I'm aware of with a meaningful distance impact.
When you see post-collegiate non-sponsored Americans lurking around, they're often just wearing what they know. If you got out of Stanford or BYU a couple years back, you've never worn a non-Nike shoe unless you're a star and attracted a sponshorship. It's what all of OAC wore before joining them. (And for a year after, too.) When On said 'wear whatever you want,' none of them wore adidas. Even Ritz ran 90% of his lifetime miles with the swoosh on foot. It's the starting point.
Rojas further poisoned the waters for guys like Faubs when she took adidas money, lived on it for a buildup, got her bills paid up for the next year, then ditched them before race day to wear Nike. No one else is touching her again. They don't trust she'll actually still be with them on the NY or Boston start line. She really is so Nike-loyal that she will under no circumstance race in anything else. After Nell scamming adidas for half a year of living expenses, every company in the industry knows 2 things:
1. Super loyal Nike wearers are not worth paying if you're any other brand. They're going to wear what they're used to even if you pay them not to. (Josette Norris)
2. If you're Nike, you don't have to pay them much. They'll be your biggest cheerleaders for free. They will actually pay you to buy shoes. (Again, Norris)
This is why it is clear Faubs is not getting 100k/year.
They aren't giving a guy who finished 12th at trials and 9th at NYC 5 minutes behind the winner 100k. No one outside of LR knows who Scott Fauble is. On Strava he has 13,000 followers. Jim Walmsley, the "hobbyjogger" who finished like 2 minutes behind him at trials has 97,000 followers (7.5x). No one cares about Fauble.
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Jumbo207 wrote:
AP5000 wrote:
In what world would anyone think him capable of running 2:08 anywhere, let alone NYC?
The world where he ran 2:08:52 at Boston in the spring.
It's downhill. It's doesn't count. Why do you think the same guy who has both Boston and NYC course records ran over 2 minutes faster at Boston. Apply that to someone as slow as Fauble and that expands to 3-4 minutes which is exactly what you saw yesterday.
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Hot Takes wrote:
Time and Money wrote:
I think the situation that the US system runs into is that it takes time and money to train for a pro marathon. It takes years of post collegiate running to knock out a quality marathon. Most runners don’t have the luxury of waiting that long, life is too expensive these days. Healthcare, rent, cars, travel to meets is all sky high. A couple of chosen ones can get sponsored out of college but rarely do the shoes companies go for exclusively road racers. We want someone to transition from the track to the roads.
There is a limit on the talent pool at 23 years old and hopefully those people make it work.
Most road races with elite athletes pay for travel/lodging. Especially races like New York marathon where they also get food stipend and many athletes get 'appearance fee' contracts and some performance incentives.
And unpopular opinion, but what healthcare? Most people in their 20's never use their health insurance, and you can buy your own for a few hundred dollars a month. You can work a part time job and train a couple hours a day (which is a lot of training). Elite athletes are doing easy runs at 7 minute pace and workouts way faster. 90 minutes of running per day gets them 100 mile weeks. Let's not act like it takes all day to train, there is plenty of time to work. And most top 10-15 ranked US marathoners have contracts and don't have to work much if at all.
Let's not act like a ton of countries are way better than the US in the marathon. You've got a couple African countries and Japan. It's worth mentioning that most of the fastest marathons in the world are not in the United States. You see a lot of 2:03-2:06 times in the world run every year, but not many of them are on US soil, where most Americans are running their races.
What?? Nobody running 100+ miles per week is only training for 90 minutes per day. Elites spend 90 minutes just doing warmups and conditioning before they run a step. Travel to and from altitude camps, tracks, group workouts, etc.
Then there’s post run conditioning, maybe massage, and other non running activities. Ask Rupp/Farrah during his peak years how long he trained each day, both running or otherwise. It’s an entire lifestyle if you’re a professional at the top level.
Pro cyclists routinely are training 7-8 hours per day when you include all the off the bike required activities.
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Hot Takes wrote:
^^^
I wouldn't really say we're in a slump. We've got four separate individuals who finished top 10 at either Boston/Chicago/New York (Fauble/Kibet/Mantz/Fisher) and several others just outside 10th, and a record number of sub 2:10's in a single year (Mantz/Fauble/Kibet/Rupp/McDonald/Panning, maybe missed one or two more?), and also a record number of sub 61 half marathon guys with Mantz/Lara/Simbassa/Erassa in one year. And Rupp isn't even in these stats that I just mentioned because he dropped out of New York and didn't race any other world major or half marathon races. Simbassa will likely be in the 2024 marathon trials and should be yet another sub 2:10 guy, probably by quite a bit. And then one of our next great marathoners, Joe Klecker, is just a couple years away from entering the discussion. He'll likely be a 2:07 guy if I had to guess and a consistent top 10 finisher in races like Chicago/New York/Boston... We haven't had any consistent podium people in the past couple decades, so just because we didn't have someone on the podium this year doesn't mean we're worse than normal.
Meb has won NYC and Boston without ultrafast PRs. Oh yeah, plus an Olympic medal plus 3 other WMM podiums. Hall made podiums at NYC and OT, plus 5th or better at 5 other WMM. This was the era of peak Mammoth TC and Hansons. Then came Rupp.
The Marathon Project produced 7 sub-2:10s in 2020, how many top 5s at WMMs have resulted in the following two years? 2:10 is no longer a significant benchmark in the supershoe era. As for Klecker or Simbassa, no counting marathon chickens until they've hatched.
I'd love for you to be correct about the promise of the sub-61 half-marathon guys. Again, it's far more normal in the supershoe era.
I stand by my view that we're in a slump relative to the Aughts and Teens.
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Gentleman Savage wrote:
Hot Takes wrote:
^^^
I wouldn't really say we're in a slump. We've got four separate individuals who finished top 10 at either Boston/Chicago/New York (Fauble/Kibet/Mantz/Fisher) and several others just outside 10th, and a record number of sub 2:10's in a single year (Mantz/Fauble/Kibet/Rupp/McDonald/Panning, maybe missed one or two more?), and also a record number of sub 61 half marathon guys with Mantz/Lara/Simbassa/Erassa in one year. And Rupp isn't even in these stats that I just mentioned because he dropped out of New York and didn't race any other world major or half marathon races. Simbassa will likely be in the 2024 marathon trials and should be yet another sub 2:10 guy, probably by quite a bit. And then one of our next great marathoners, Joe Klecker, is just a couple years away from entering the discussion. He'll likely be a 2:07 guy if I had to guess and a consistent top 10 finisher in races like Chicago/New York/Boston... We haven't had any consistent podium people in the past couple decades, so just because we didn't have someone on the podium this year doesn't mean we're worse than normal.
Meb has won NYC and Boston without ultrafast PRs. Oh yeah, plus an Olympic medal plus 3 other WMM podiums. Hall made podiums at NYC and OT, plus 5th or better at 5 other WMM. This was the era of peak Mammoth TC and Hansons. Then came Rupp.
The Marathon Project produced 7 sub-2:10s in 2020, how many top 5s at WMMs have resulted in the following two years? 2:10 is no longer a significant benchmark in the supershoe era. As for Klecker or Simbassa, no counting marathon chickens until they've hatched.
I'd love for you to be correct about the promise of the sub-61 half-marathon guys. Again, it's far more normal in the supershoe era.
I stand by my view that we're in a slump relative to the Aughts and Teens.
There isn't anyone even remotely exciting running the marathon in the US. Rupp is done at the global level and there's no one even remotely fast behind him. 2:05 is the new 2:10 and we are nowhere close...and 2:05 isn't all that anymore given how many guys have run 2:03. Even Rupp couldn't touch 2:05, so that's how sad the state of US marathoning in. Now we have to wait for 2 years for the pathetic "MF" titles from trials for all 3 guys who go and maybe one runs under 2:09.
46 -
This thread is the equivalent to celebrating the men’s soccer team making the quarterfinal of the World Cup. It’s fine, but nothing to make a fuss about.
60 -
Lower standards wrote:
This thread is the equivalent to celebrating the men’s soccer team making the quarterfinal of the World Cup. It’s fine, but nothing to make a fuss about.
I like the anology but the US men's Olympic marathon team is somehow even worse than the soccer team. The more accurate one would be to just make the World Cup let alone advance is nothing to fuss about. It's not like any of them even have a prayer of making the podium.
40 -
On more ideal weather conditions, he is probably good for 2:09.xx on NYCM course. That is nothing shabby at all. That time is good enough to win most NYCM back in the day.
03 -
Gentleman Savage wrote:
Hot Takes wrote:
^^^
I wouldn't really say we're in a slump. We've got four separate individuals who finished top 10 at either Boston/Chicago/New York (Fauble/Kibet/Mantz/Fisher) and several others just outside 10th, and a record number of sub 2:10's in a single year (Mantz/Fauble/Kibet/Rupp/McDonald/Panning, maybe missed one or two more?), and also a record number of sub 61 half marathon guys with Mantz/Lara/Simbassa/Erassa in one year. And Rupp isn't even in these stats that I just mentioned because he dropped out of New York and didn't race any other world major or half marathon races. Simbassa will likely be in the 2024 marathon trials and should be yet another sub 2:10 guy, probably by quite a bit. And then one of our next great marathoners, Joe Klecker, is just a couple years away from entering the discussion. He'll likely be a 2:07 guy if I had to guess and a consistent top 10 finisher in races like Chicago/New York/Boston... We haven't had any consistent podium people in the past couple decades, so just because we didn't have someone on the podium this year doesn't mean we're worse than normal.
Meb has won NYC and Boston without ultrafast PRs. Oh yeah, plus an Olympic medal plus 3 other WMM podiums. Hall made podiums at NYC and OT, plus 5th or better at 5 other WMM. This was the era of peak Mammoth TC and Hansons. Then came Rupp.
The Marathon Project produced 7 sub-2:10s in 2020, how many top 5s at WMMs have resulted in the following two years? 2:10 is no longer a significant benchmark in the supershoe era. As for Klecker or Simbassa, no counting marathon chickens until they've hatched.
I'd love for you to be correct about the promise of the sub-61 half-marathon guys. Again, it's far more normal in the supershoe era.
I stand by my view that we're in a slump relative to the Aughts and Teens.
I know 2011 was a big year because Hall (who never made a WMM podium) was 4th at Boston with his windy 2:04. That was a big year for American running with a 4th, 5th, 6th and 9th at WMM races, two by Hall one by Meb and . But USA only had 3 guys put up times that made top 300 in the world that year. This year we have 7th, 7th, 9th, 10th at WMM races but 8 guys in the top 300 and we don’t even think it’s a great year. I’d say we’re trending better. We were one good Rupp race away from being better than 2011, a year that most would say was really good. When Hall ran 2:04 at Boston the next American was 2:16, pretty sad that we didn’t have anyone within two miles from a guy who wasn’t even on the podium
61