First off, I'll admit I'm a Conner fanboy. He's the most promising American marathon star we have at this point, in my opinion.
In a podcast that just came out, he said he's been doing 4:45 to 4:46 pace for marathon effort tempos at altitude and it feels comfortable. He also says sub 2:08 isn't even his A goal for Chicago and coach Eyestone likely wants him to go out at 1:03. That seems probably too quick on his debut and for anyone else a guaranteed recipe for disaster, but this is Conner Mantz and he's tough as nails. He's proven time and again he is strong and consistent. If anyone can go out in 1:03 and tough out a 1:04 second half it's him.
What does everyone think? Does he break the 2:07:56 debut American record at the Chicago Marathon this weekend? Is he the future? Or overhyped?
I love it, dude has balls. American runners too often run conservatively, happy to run 2:11.
Japan, with 1/3 the population, had 30 guys last year run 2:08 or faster, the US had 1. Everybody goes out at sub 64 in Japan, we need an attitude change in the marathon.
But who does the US have currently running on the roads that has done anything recently that indicates they can run sub 2:08?
First off, I'll admit I'm a Conner fanboy. He's the most promising American marathon star we have at this point, in my opinion.
He's more promising the Fisher? Are you crazy?
Should I not even read the rest of the thread?
Near-term, yes, because Fisher is not stepping up to the marathon anytime soon. I specifically said most promising MARATHON star. Mantz is our most promising up and coming marathoner for the 2024 Olympics. Fisher will remain on the track.
I feel like I am reading one big joke I am not in on. The things in this thread are outrageous.
Every data point we have on him is a good runner (13:11, 27:25, 60:55 in the super shoe era) but signifigantly less accomplished than Rupp/Hall were at the same age. Hall had run 59:43 and Rupp had run 26:48.00.
Yet Mantz is gonna run 2:06!?!?! Come on be realistic here. Nothing in the data supports that. Give him 4-5 more years of development.
It's a good thing this board wasn't around when college student Alberto Salazar looked at the NYC Marathon and said he'd win and run under 2:10 in 1980.
I am glad he is making his marathon debut early instead of spending 6-10 years trying to chase a spot in the 5/10k for WCs or the Olympics. We need more distance guys and girls going to the marathon early.
There have been too many similarly situated US distance runners who were good on the track and had a promising half who then ended up tanking their marathon debut that I am very pessimistic that Mantz will be able to pull off a 2:06 debut. There is no evidence that Mantz is that much better than all who came before him. I would much rather see him debut at the USATF marathon championships and go for the win rather than time trial his first marathon at a best of all possible worlds pace that will take him to the limits of his ability. Even many of the top E. African marathoners make their debut at B level races to get a win and learn the distance before going to WMMs.
I love it, dude has balls. American runners too often run conservatively, happy to run 2:11.
Japan, with 1/3 the population, had 30 guys last year run 2:08 or faster, the US had 1. Everybody goes out at sub 64 in Japan, we need an attitude change in the marathon.
But who does the US have currently running on the roads that has done anything recently that indicates they can run sub 2:08?
What has anyone in Japan done before running sub 2:08? Look at all these guys that ran the Biwa Mainichi Marathon in 2021
Kengo Suzuki (National record holder) went from 2:10 to 2:04. (13:57/27:49 prs)
Hidekazu Hijikata went from 2:09:50 to 2:06:26. (14:03/28:03)
Kyohei Hosoya went from 2:28 to 2:06. (13:38/28:05 prs)
Masato Kikuchi went from 2:11 to 2:07. (13:35/28:04 prs)
Shuho Dairokuno went from 2:11 to 2:07. (13:28/27:46)
These guys would all be 2:10-2:11 guys in America. We'll never know who is capable of this in the US because guys are too scared to go outside their comfort zone through halfway.
It's a good thing this board wasn't around when college student Alberto Salazar looked at the NYC Marathon and said he'd win and run under 2:10 in 1980.
Great comparison. They share 5/10K PRs and both have/had questionable efficiency at the marathon distance. Mantz seems smoother than Saladbar so I say sub 2:08:13.
It would be great to have someone in the US run 2:06. We need to get someone in that range to increase the confidence with the other US pros that it can be done.
206 does seem a bit ambitious but maybe he can hold on for a respectable 207 or 208. There's been guys with better credentials not break 210 but this guy seems built for the long distances.
First off, I'll admit I'm a Conner fanboy. He's the most promising American marathon star we have at this point, in my opinion.
In a podcast that just came out, he said he's been doing 4:45 to 4:46 pace for marathon effort tempos at altitude and it feels comfortable. He also says sub 2:08 isn't even his A goal for Chicago and coach Eyestone likely wants him to go out at 1:03. That seems probably too quick on his debut and for anyone else a guaranteed recipe for disaster, but this is Conner Mantz and he's tough as nails. He's proven time and again he is strong and consistent. If anyone can go out in 1:03 and tough out a 1:04 second half it's him.
What does everyone think? Does he break the 2:07:56 debut American record at the Chicago Marathon this weekend? Is he the future? Or overhyped?
I love it, dude has balls. American runners too often run conservatively, happy to run 2:11.
Japan, with 1/3 the population, had 30 guys last year run 2:08 or faster, the US had 1. Everybody goes out at sub 64 in Japan, we need an attitude change in the marathon.
One of the problems of marathoners in the US is that people honestly think the main difference between USA and Japan when it comes to marathon is their attitude and how fast they go out.
You don’t become a world class marsthoner by just willing it at raceday.
Maybe its not attitide but the training and the amount of people running. Or maybe the Japanese just "grit their teeth" really and "put their whole hearth in it".
I think he's capable of it, but hitting a 2:06-07 in his first attempt would be huge. In terms of probabilities agree with those saying 1:03/1:05 for 2:08xx.
