Tell me about Jared Ward

I'm not trying to be a jerk in return, but that's why I posted the link. Rather than nit picking and stating it wasn't 80, why not just go recalculate it yourself at 72???

seriouslyyo wrote:

heyyo wrote:

The Daniels VDOT Calculator estimates the impact of an 80F temperature during the marathon as 9.9 seconds per mile or almost 4:30 total over the course of the marathon. That would make this a huge improvement.

http://www.runsmartproject.com/calculator/#modEasy

I am not trying to be a jerk but it was not 80 degrees for most of that race. Maybe about half? I thought I heard them say it was 72 somewhere near the hour mark but I could be making that up. Regardless, that calculation assumes it is 80+ for all 26.2 miles.

I live in LA area. The race started with overcast and mid to upper 60s. By the time they were done, it may not have been 80 yet.

Because I don't really care what a table says his time equates to? I was just making a point for anyone thinking "OMG, he ran 2:08!" (Surprised it hadn't been said previously)

NBD, dude. To each his own.

Thanks for the info.

Looks like it will be a competitive trials at LA next year.

I haven't looked into it. Is the trials going to be held as part of LA next year or will it be the day before on a looped course? What are the logistics?

Well just say that then and say what you actually mean rather than pointing out things unrelated to your intent. That's lesson 101 in communication.I see the flaw in the entire Jack Daniels tables interpolation but was merely putting it out there to compliment the wild guesses also being thrown out there. The same flaw that applies to Jack's tables applies even more so to the stick a finger in the air and pull out a time out of thin air method that everyone else is using. So 1) either you have a problem with using a time set in one set of conditions to predict a time set in ideal conditions, which is again fine, so just say that, or2) you have a problem with using methodology with some sense of rigor to make time conversions and would prefer to make up times off the top of your head. I assume that 2) is not the case for you, but given that your not also taking the time to critique individual guesses of "its probably worth 2:10-2:11", it appears that you may fall into bucket 2). That's strange, but given the amount of crazy in this country I expect people to think like you. i.e. I'm going to criticize this table and this analysis that purposes thought but I'll leave untouched wild guesses and statements without any support. NBD, kid. To each her own.

seriouslyyo wrote:

Because I don't really care what a table says his time equates to? I was just making a point for anyone thinking "OMG, he ran 2:08!" (Surprised it hadn't been said previously)

NBD, dude. To each his own.

And people say NFL fans are reactionary. Let's calm down a bit. It was one race. I would be willing to be now that Ward finishes out of the money.

His improvement is not astronomical. At some point, it will slow down.

I think if Estrada wants to run for the US and wants to do the marathon he has a way better shot than Ward.

hello for the win. wrote:

And people say NFL fans are reactionary. Let's calm down a bit. It was one race. I would be willing to be now that Ward finishes out of the money.

His improvement is not astronomical. At some point, it will slow down.

I think if Estrada wants to run for the US and wants to do the marathon he has a way better shot than Ward.

I like his odds, his coach Ed Eyestone knows the marathon game well. Running this course gives him a feel of what he has to do to prepare.

Estrada has excellent coaching with Coach Vigil, Vigil will have him ready.

Meb is on track, Hall not so much, Ritz will have to have the longest string string of non injury time to make it to the trials he has had in years, odds are against it. Lots of wild cards beyond that...

I'm wondering which of the contenders will make the mistake of going for a payday at a summer or fall marathon? Outside of guys chasing standards, the U.S. will be light, so I could see some of the bigger marathons throwing money at them, therefore jeopardizing there Olympic chances?

Does Hall, Ritz, or Meb return to NY again? Maybe Vail or Ward?

Possibly Chicago?

Shimmy Mack wrote:

...and you guys can all still sleep on Max King.

Dude begged to get into the elite field (wasn't invited), drove himself to the start and didn't get any special "elite water bottles on the table" treatment.

Another year of solid training, he'll be right there around 2:12-2:11

nobody is sleeping on max king. i doubt max even wants to be on the team. he hasn't said anything about going for the team, although he has the standard now so that may change.

but the fact is, you can't make the switch from ultras to a marathon that quickly. hasn't worked out for canaday either.

Dr. Van Nostrand wrote:

Bumbi maybe? Nice debut in the half Sunday beating Ritz and meb

Someone's HM result tells absolutely nothing about their marathon potential. HM is closer to 10k than marathon in terms of the required ability. Running out of fuel is never an issue in HM, at least at the elite level. But that's the biggest obstacle in marathon.

Haha, oh, he had to drive himself to the start and didn\'t get \"special water bottle treatment\"??

Poor baby...

Guys sleeping on Arciniaga

heyyo wrote:

NBD, kid. To each her own.

My friend, you are in left field. Albeit intentionally, I am sure. I do have to applaud your ironic use of the word "communication" in your post.

My response was to your question, "...why not just go recalculate it yourself at 72???" I don't go recalculate it because I personally don't care. I have no problems with the JD table or any other table. (I have problems with plenty of tables but that's not the point.) The whole purpose of my posting on this thread at all was to stop someone from seeing your original post and assuming the temperature was 80+ degrees and Jared's time should be converted to 4+ minutes faster. Which is exactly what you said, regardless of what you meant. Communication 201 is saying what you mean. :)

Now that we have descended into typical LetsRun madness, I realize all these words are pointless and I should just close the window.

I'm not going to, btw. We are each still doing our own thing.

So why does Letsrun.com not like Jared Ward? Every article they have written the last 6 months talking about marathon trials contenders and marathon PRs seems to just ignore him. Instead they rehash the same names from the last 10 years, most of whom haven't run close to their PRs. Ward seems to be on an upward trajectory and the odds have to be in the neighborhood of 50/50 that he makes the team if he is healthy.

I've had similar thoughts reading recent thoughts on this and other websites. Everyone seems to be ignoring Jared Ward......but all the guy seems to do as a pro is win. I don't know if his odds are 50/50, but I'd put him in the top group of 4 favorites at this point. I'll take a gamer like him with a 2:11 PR over any number of guys who are old and aging or who simply don't have any experience with the marathon distance.