I just looked at his Strava. He averaged 97 miles per week in 2022. That's including down weeks and tapers. I suppose he could bump that up, but there's no guarantee he races faster.
I always felt calling him the greatest marathon prospect since Rupp was a stretch. Yes he was great at cross country but he’s already moved to the roads cause he’s barely not good enough to make teams on the track. Fisher, Klecker, and Teare would be better prospects in my opinion even if they don’t end up as good as him.
What exactly are the options here? We either give him a pass or take away his pro card?
Going out in 14:17/28:52 and 62:20 through the half came back to bite him, unsurprisingly. Even though 30k he was on 2:06:18 pace. It was a foolhardy run and if he got the chance to do it over he’d surely pace himself differently. But it was his second marathon and he’s only 26, he’ll learn from it. And I strongly believe that the splits he ran today are an indication of his great potential. I don’t think it will be long before he puts it all together and runs 2:06.
Never mentioned taking away his pro card... But I did point out many have seen him as the next standout American marathoner since he announced his was moving up to the distance. My question is if people are ready to give him a pass on this result and still see him in that title, or now see him simply as a mid-pack contender among the current US elites.
If you want to know my personal opinion, I would err more towards giving him a pass on this race. I think Boston can be a tough race to gauge your effort on, and he made a poor tactical decision in going out with the front pack.
For those who complain US marathoners never take a risk and put themselves in podium contention in the majors, you got your wish in Mantz's and Albertson's efforts today.
I just looked at his Strava. He averaged 97 miles per week in 2022. That's including down weeks and tapers. I suppose he could bump that up, but there's no guarantee he races faster.
Why doesn't he run 7 days?
"Mormons" or members of the Church Of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints, generally choose not to run or workout on Sundays as a sign of respect to God, taking the phrase "a day of rest" very seriously.
Mantz is one of those who chooses not to run on Sundays.
I think this is probably right. Mantz is 26 & this was his second marathon. He probably had a shot to finish around 4th today if he goes out with the 1:03:59 group instead of the 1:02:19 group. But we sit here and complain about Americans not being able to compete at the front of races & slow times at NYC/Boston. So we gotta pick a lane. I'm fine with his choice to go for it today. He stuck his nose in it for a while. He found his limits. Chebet basically went 1:02/1:04 & has run 2:03-flat.
He ran relatively even in Chicago but went too quick from 10k-15k there. Chicago and Boston don't decide the Olympic team. If he tries to time trial Orlando then he hasn't learned too much from these races.
I just think it is time people start to be more realistic about who he is and his potential.
A very good runner? Yes. One of the US all-time greats and competitive on the world stage? No.
Mantz is now 26, and been pro for 3 years.
We have enough data now to get a clearer picture of his potential-
He has PRs 13:11, 27:25, 60:55, and 2:08:15. He has not been a factor in any US, World, or Olympic championship (yet).
Without super shoes, Galen Rupp (who he is often compared to), at age 26 had run 12:58 and 26:48, silver medal at London, and placed 4th in some WC. In the offseason still found time to run 60:30 and even 3:50.9 in the mile.
Mantz is obviously a very solid American runner. And will continue to have a fine career for years and year. He may be the best US marathoner (mostly due to the abysmal state of US marathoning).
But it is time we be realistic about his ceiling. He won't ever be competitive on a world stage.
We have seen enough of his potential at this point and there is nothing that indicates anything world beating. Again- a very solid runner.
I think this is probably right. Mantz is 26 & this was his second marathon. He probably had a shot to finish around 4th today if he goes out with the 1:03:59 group instead of the 1:02:19 group. But we sit here and complain about Americans not being able to compete at the front of races & slow times at NYC/Boston. So we gotta pick a lane. I'm fine with his choice to go for it today. He stuck his nose in it for a while. He found his limits. Chebet basically went 1:02/1:04 & has run 2:03-flat.
He ran relatively even in Chicago but went too quick from 10k-15k there. Chicago and Boston don't decide the Olympic team. If he tries to time trial Orlando then he hasn't learned too much from these races.
This. Good post.
I have to say though, if I were a pro runner I don’t think I would run Boston unless the payday was enormous. Aside from the incredibly rich tradition, too many things can go wrong with the weather and the potential to blow up, in addition to the longer recovery time needed due to the hills. Plus, if you do run a very fast time with a tailwind, then it’s got an asterisk by it like Hall’s 2:04.
I think, if I were doing two marathons per year, I would go London and Chicago in non-Olympic years. Even better, I’d probably go spring cross country, summer track, then buildup for fall marathon. Recover then repeat.
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