luv2run wrote:
There is a strong correlation between VO2max and endurance ability in a heterogeneous population. If you took EVERY person in your city and had their VO2max measured and had them run a 5k you would see a strong correlation with high values finishing faster than lower values. Yes, you will have people with high values run slower than others with the same values, but across the entire population you would see a really good line.
One of the problems is that we often see Vo2max values of elite athletes that are so close to one another in values that the correlation falls away. It would be like trying to figure out which Mensa member is going to be best at chess based on IQ. They are in such a narrow range that predictiveness falls apart.
I agree, though I would be interested in seeing how strong the correlation is if we could control for the aspects of VO2max that respond to training and those that don't (i.e., talent).
For instance, although it's well understood that VO2max doesn't really respond much to training, after a certain point, I think it's a safe assumption that the average hobby jogger hadn't yet reached that point, much less the average adult who we might subject to a fitness test.
The other aspect of VO2max that changes a lot is the weight denominator. All things being equal, low body fat = high VO2max. If everyone were rail thin, then the distribution of VO2max values in a population would be much more tightly clustered.
I'd be interested in looking at the relationship between VO2max and performance for a non-elite, but still well trained population. I would also be interested in looking isolating the effect of extra body fat on that relationship.