Now tha t Rupp is in. Who has the balls to break him?

Ritz FTW. He solos thon.

i don't think anyone has the physical ability to make life rough on galen rupp unless someone is willing to sacrifice themselves and drop out at mile 20

estrada has the balls, but we know how that will end

So you are predicting jog fest?

elkanah kibet will hammer until he can't.

Meb will not let it be a "jog fest". I'm not predicting that he'll have the kind of fitness necessary to "break" Rupp (I don't think anyone will if Rupp has a good debut), but assuming he's in shape and feeling good, Meb's not going to let it be super slow.

I think the more important question is not who will "have the the balls" to break Rupp, but what pace would be needed to drop him? 2:06 pace? 2:08? 2:10? Clearly, Rupp is an incredible talent, this is still his marathon debut. If you had told me that Chris Solinsky would debut at 10,000 in 26:59, I would have called you a fool. For a few reasons, I'm not sure Rupp is ready (or trying) to make that sort of statement in his debut. I expect he will do exactly enough work to get third. If that takes a 2:09:XX effort, then I think any pack going 2:07 pace will gain a lead over him. If 2:09 is enough to make the team, people who gain an early lead over Rupp will see him again late in the race.

Personally, I'd love to see a real honest fight. I want the 1984 trials in Buffalo all over again. Let's see someone dare to break out, then fight to hold on. Let Rupp run a perfectly executed 2:09 high race, I want someone to steal it by killing themselves to run 2:09 low.

Now that everyone knows Rupp is running, they also know that he only needs to be top 3, and will likely spend as little energy as necessary to get there. Therefore Rupp will let whoever break away as long as the path to second or third is there. He has no need to push hard - just be top 3.

That said, the others will need to figure how they will race with Rupp sitting on the lead group. I think his very presence is going to change the whole race. The guys who could make the team may go for broke to try and drop Rupp since they doubt they can out speed him over the last 10k, regardless of whether Rupp is running his first marathon.

Rupp will be dropped in the last 4 miles because of his inexperience. Experience trumps talent in the Trials.

Soprano wrote:

Meb will not let it be a "jog fest". I'm not predicting that he'll have the kind of fitness necessary to "break" Rupp (I don't think anyone will if Rupp has a good debut), but assuming he's in shape and feeling good, Meb's not going to let it be super slow.

I agree. Last OT two groups formed early: Hall, Meb, Abdi, Ritz and one other I forget went out at sub 2:10 pace, and the chasers were 1-2 mins back hoping the lead group would falter

It would be dangerous for Ritz and Meb to lollygag and run with the pretenders and leave it to the final few miles. I'm guessing those two and two or three others will break loose early and a chase pack again 1-2 minutes back. The three that make the team will come from the lead group.

Rupp will certainly cover a move by Ritz/Meb and one or two others. He won't if someone decides to go solo. I don't believe Rupp is in it for the win; just wants to make the team. That way he preserves the debut marathon mystique, as he can say he hasn't yet run a mary at full effort. I'm assuming, of course that the Oly marathon is tactical, and he can shoot for the win and still emerge with his ceiling TBD.

I don't see anyone having the wheels to break Rupp. Especially if the race is 2:09ish or slower (a time expected to win in this sorta race) then nobody will be able to take him on after 30k. It's his race. However I see two scenarios he doesn't win. Either a gutsy solo effort, which I don't know if I see anyone doing that. Or a quick pace from the start. I know it was brought up Meb won't let it be a jog fest however I feel Chelanga may want to take it on a bit. He is obviously inexperienced and that can pay off sometimes. No way though does Rupp do anything crazy. He will probably try to run the most basic race possible, you can tell by the way he runs 10k's. Overall though, I have to say I see Rupp winning. With Meb getting older, although he has not declined in performance he just doesn't have that pop in his legs still. I think from there it's Ritz and Puskedra in that order. Ritz just needs to have a decent race and Puskedra has shown he can hang with the big dogs late in the race (Chicago 2015). Unless Edtrada or Chelanga pull amiracle out of there pockets I don't see them qualifying. I would guess only one of them has a good race, although neither make it. So final, 1. Rupp 2. Ritz 3. Puskedra

Hopefully the field is sharpening up their elbows to give Mr. Rupp a proper welcoming to marathons. Rough him up early, wear down the body, and leave him vulnerable to attack late in the race.

My prediction wrote:

Rupp will be dropped in the last 4 miles because of his inexperience. Experience trumps talent in the Trials.

If Rupp is smart, he'll just hang with Ritz.

Galen MF Rupp has the balls to break Galen MF Rupp!

It's obviously all or nothing for Rupp. Time is irrelevant. The U.S. Olympic Trials Marathon is Rupp's best shot at winning a prestigous marathon especially in his debut. Think about it. Rupp is in another class compared to just about every other American distance runner and he's coached by a 3x NYC and 1x Boston champ. The marathon has always been their end game. All of those people who think he's eschewing a debut appearance payout...imagine what the big races will pay him if he's already the Trials champ. If he were to debut at NYC or London he'd get a decent appearance fee but would in all likelihood end up finishing anonymously in 5th - 10th place.

Jared Ward or Ryan Vail will.

Would love an amazing Vail performance.

Cabada : 2:18 :: Rupp : 2:10

He doesn't have to race to qualify. He probably wins with a fast training effort.

Ritz partly owes his trip to London in 2012 to Rupp in the 2012 10k trials. Will he return the favor?

I don't think anyone has the talent to break Rupp. To me, it's a simple question if Rupp's body handles the distance. At a super slow pace maybe Rupp would definitely be fine, but there aren't three guys that can run a marathon pace that Rupp can't handle (in theory). Within a reasonable pace range, it will just boil down to how Rupp's body responds to the distance.