Why Dejen Gebremeskel Will WIN the Moscow 10,000m

Yes, Farah gets to the front before the last lap starts and runs clear.

Beating him to the beginning of the last lap and forcing him to deal with traffic may be beneficial.

I just don't thing that an overall hard, strung out pace the whole way will do anything but help Farah.

The assumption people are making that he doesn't have the stamina is only based on the fact that he hasn't put up a fast 5 or 10 time in a while.

But that's only because he hasn't attempted to.

He may be training perfectly for endurance and only racing for speed.

A fast 1500 doesn't mean poor stamina.

As for Gebremeskel, 12:46, 26:51 and the kick he has displayed many times shows he has the tools to win.

Yes, the tactics have to be executed well to win.

chet wrote:

Dejen Gebremeskel is mentally tougher than Mo Farah. Gebremeskel led the last 2/3 of his 26:51 in Sollentuna.

Watch the video of the last lap and see how the meet almost looks like a typical college meet, so low key, and yet Gebremeskel had the mental fortitude to serve as pacemaker for most of the race, and you can see he still pulls away from Kuma in the homestretch, running the last lap in 57.2 and the final 200 in 27.6. Gebremeskel can run away from Mo Farah in the final 2 miles, utilizing his superior stamina and, potentially, a withering kick.

The quality of the video is not great but is worth a look:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HT10RntaWes

You are underestimating this and other swedish GP series of elite meets.

They are not on big stadiums, but they are mostly full and theres a great crowd.

The day before the Karlstad GP they had all the hammer throwers doing a hammer throw competition over a river in the middle of the city. People were lined up along the bridge etc to watch.

It was great.

Well, remember that Kuma has shown the willingness to truly fight in a race:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJ52NEk-MwQ

And of course Imane Merga has the most valuable elbows in the history of the sport, so it's not like Dejen doesn't have some enforcers out there on the track...

ventolin^3 wrote:

if he gets back to last year's form he coud also kick with mo

that 12'46 with a blistering 54 finish

( homestretch out wide ) got me thinking that he had to be in something like 3'29/3'30 shape at the time

( pointless to post it then as he was unlikely to run a 1500 & no one wouda believed me )

now mo has gone & run a proper 1500, that supposed 3'29/3'30 for dejy does look decidely ungenerous

he does need last year's speed though

Yes, DG looks like he can run 3:30, or as you state, maybe 3:29. Yenew Alamirew must be capable of 3:30 also.

Hopeful Runner wrote:

I can't tell if you're actually serious. If Mo wouldn't lead (which he wouldn't) he would wipe the competition off the track with a 53:XX last lap off 26:50 pace

You can't tell because you're a Mo-ron. Your guy wins a few tactical races and you think he can do anything.

When you want to predict how fast someone will go, there's a little thing called "seasonal form." How fast have they gone lately? What kind of form they were in 2 years ago means nothing. Mo's 26:46 means no more than KB's 26:43 does.

In the past year or so, KB has run 27:02 and 27:12. All Mo has is 27:30 from last year and 13:05 from this year. Nobody in their right mind would bet on Bekele to keep up with Gebremeskel, even though his form is good. Mo Farah's form is average, so you stubbornly believe in his form from 2 years ago instead. And if that fails, his magic last-lap powers can overcome any deficit.

Well, I got news for you, he'll need a 40.xx last lap to win in Moscow, because the fastest he'll be at the bell is 26:20. Gebremeskel is light-years ahead of him.

If, as I suspect, DG has the advantage against Mo Farah, it is because he does have more tools, but to state with certainty that Mo Farah cannot break 27 minutes does seem absurd. I do think Farah is in over his head in a time trial like Brussels with rabbits and DG who can run 26:30ish, but in a championship race, with Farah able to run 3:28xx and likely 26:50, DG is going to have his hands full.

DG moving up to the 10000 is really exiting, but there's some amazing (lack of) logic in this thread here! =8-()

DG who's run just ONE 10000 in his career, under perfect conditions and a set up with training partners, is supposed to come right off that and do another twenty seconds faster at Worlds while navigating in a whole field of elites, while such navigating for all we've seen so far is his week point?

MF who's run both faster and consequently victorious in such fields are supposed to not be able to run sub 27 if needed?

Also, so far this year Galen Rupp is faster over the 5000 than DJ - how does that fit into the equation? ;-)

Peter Andersson wrote:

DG moving up to the 10000 is really exiting, but there's some amazing (lack of) logic in this thread here! =8-()

DG who's run just ONE 10000 in his career, under perfect conditions and a set up with training partners, is supposed to come right off that and do another twenty seconds faster at Worlds while navigating in a whole field of elites, while such navigating for all we've seen so far is his week point?

Nobody but YOU is asserting that Dejen is supposed to run 26:31 in Moscow, so you might want to train yourself on reading comprehension. As for the "perfect conditions," you must realize that DG led the final 7000m of a time trial, and IF you think that is the definition of "perfect conditions," then I am assuming you are not well informed regarding this sport. What was stated was that DG COULD run 26:30, and that is a matter of opinion, but there is ample evidence that a 12:46 runner who debuts in 26:51 while serving as his own rabbit from 3000m on has much more potential than 26:51.

chet wrote:

Farah able to run 3:28xx and likely 26:50.

26:50 based on his form from what year?

Mo's best performance since 2011 was 12:56, early last year in a friendly venue. The more distance-oriented KB ran 12:55 last year but could not break 27. Mo tried for sub-13 this year and failed in 13:05, and no he was not sick. If he's not in sub-13 form, how is he likely in sub-27 form? How would hammering away at his middle distance speed do anything but harm his 10000-meter form?

I guess now someone will say he is in sub-13 form, on the grounds that last year's numbers are more relevant than this year's.

I am an admirer of Gebremeskel and thought he would win the 5000 in the London Olympics. But I'd like to know on what the OP bases the assertion that Gebremeskel is "mentally tougher" than Farah?

chet wrote:

Nobody but YOU is asserting that Dejen is supposed to run 26:31 in Moscow, so you might want to train yourself on reading comprehension.

ROTFL - I just said that those who think he'll be able to run 26:30 in his second ever 10000 are probably wrong and YOU read it as if I said that he was! Yeah, one of us needs better reading comprehension... ;-P

But if he does go on to run 26:30 at Worlds or later this year thats bad too, because then there's no need for him to stay on track at all - Samuel Wanjiru did 26:40 before moving up setting first a WR at HM and then go on to the Marathon because of the better money there.

As for perfect conditions I meant the whole picture; the weather, the lack of winds, a small meet with less pressure, meet organizers giving him VIP treatmeant as the olympic medalist he is, training partners there with him, Kuma finishing just one second behind after breathing support down his neck for all of those 7000 towards the end.

That is interresting in itself come to think of it - maybe it was the other way around than what we've all been assuming, the best guy doesn't usually lead up front for the last 7000 with less good guys sitting right behind him - so maybe that race in Sweden was meant to be a time chase for the more merited Kuma and/or Merga rabbitted by their distance illeterate friend DJ who on course just happened to realise that (unlike the year so far) he suddenly had a very, very good day and just kept going the whole distance himself too, helping them on for another lap, and another lap, and yet another lap until it was all over.

DJ didn't start that race as the leading Ethiopian contender for 10000 based on time, he still wasn't the leading Ethiopian contender when the bell rang...

Watch out for ibrahim jaelan... He is back in ethio and training hard... Looked fresh/strong in interval training. Head was still while he ran 55 400's. he only run 13:09 for 5000... But if he comes in healthy and the pace is slower.. He is a threat in championships.

Jeilan is a serious threat of course. But this year he lacks the element of surprise. Being unknown to the world at the time Farah assumed he could run away from Jeilan early and would not need an extra gear in the last 200. Farah was impatient, he made his first move with 700 to go, moving out almost to lane three to get into the lead. Then he started his kick with just under 400 to go, still on the penultimate curve. This is a race plan for someone who expects to be celebrating in the last 100. Instead, Jeilan marked him, stayed close enough and badly outran Farah over the final 300.

I expect Farah to win, but if he loses it will be because of another mistake of over confidence. Either he will move too early - 700 out or more - or he will wait too late - to the final 200 or less.

his 57.2 last lap will put him about 6 seconds behind Farah. If he tries to make Moscow fast, Farah will sit on him and blow him away over the last 500.

runrawr wrote:

his 57.2 last lap will put him about 6 seconds behind Farah. If he tries to make Moscow fast, Farah will sit on him and blow him away over the last 500.

How will it put him 6 seconds behind Farah?

wigins=troll, not sure why anyone treats him otherwise.

The 13:05 was in a tactical race where he was in fact sick. Yes, Salazar and the media definitely played it up in anticipation of his loss, but he was nowhere near top form. Mo likely has the fitness to time trial in around 12:45 right now. Do you really think the 27:30 in the Olympics is close to his limit? Did you even watch that race. He could have EASILY broken 27 if anyone wanted to push the pace. Anyone who can close a 27:30 in 53 can break 27. Salazar is not dumb, just because Mo ran a fast 1500 doesn't mean that he's sacrificing anything in the events that he's actually competing in.

Bad Wigins wrote:

chet wrote:

Farah able to run 3:28xx and likely 26:50.

26:50 based on his form from what year?

Mo's best performance since 2011 was 12:56, early last year in a friendly venue. The more distance-oriented KB ran 12:55 last year but could not break 27. Mo tried for sub-13 this year and failed in 13:05, and no he was not sick. If he's not in sub-13 form, how is he likely in sub-27 form? How would hammering away at his middle distance speed do anything but harm his 10000-meter form?

I guess now someone will say he is in sub-13 form, on the grounds that last year's numbers are more relevant than this year's.

We shall see.

Among other things, I find it hard to believe that Salazar and Mo would allow his 10,000m shape to drift that far. If workouts weren't even indicating 27 ability for 10000 that is a concern, and you have to expect races of near 27 as many WC/Oly races have been in that range.

I don't necessarily discount your idea of looking at current form, as it is more relevant than past form, but I do feel you put too much stock into how fast Mo has ran. You confidently claim that at a pace around 27 or around 12:00 at bell Mo WILL NOT be there, as opposed to just being unsure.

I think where we disagree is that you believe strongly that Mo has been slowing down the pace in races because he isn't strong enough for something faster, and while I don't discount the possibility I am also not convinced of it. Knowing what we have heard about how Salazar operates I could easily see every race as one Mo is supposed to keep slow, and just focus on pack running and last lap running to prepare for a common WC type race.