Why Dejen Gebremeskel Will WIN the Moscow 10,000m

Thanks for the video.

Just 5 guys in that race? What was it all about?

I am sure it was an excellent time trial for him.

Will he use the same strategy pulling a group of 10 guys behind him? With the leader using 6-7% more energy than the ones following it will not be possible for anyone to use this method to win the race at Worlds.

The competition is all too close for any one runner to pull away from the main leading group.

It is possible we could see some fast early pace or mid race surges but I don't see that being successful.

racetraining wrote:

I am sure it was an excellent time trial for him.

Will he use the same strategy pulling a group of 10 guys behind him? With the leader using 6-7% more energy than the ones following it will not be possible for anyone to use this method to win the race at Worlds.

The competition is all too close for any one runner to pull away from the main leading group.

It is possible we could see some fast early pace or mid race surges but I don't see that being successful.

No, of course Gebremeskel will draft off others until fairly late in the race, but he showed in Sollentuna that he has tremendous stamina, and a certain tenacity requisite to defeating Mo Farah. Farah is not unbeatable in a kick. If Gebremeskel is able to reach 9600m feeling fresher than Mo Farah, he certainly can dispose of him on the last lap. He's done it before.

if gebremeskel wants to lead to make it a 26:50 race, that's fine. but farah will be sitting just a couple guys back using much less energy.

mental strength can make it a faster race, but it wont drop the top 5-10 guys.

I think Mo farah will win, however rupp will get beaten to third place further enforcing the idea that his silver medal was soft and lacked real competition.

You're assuming the standard old school physiology.

Most of that is error. (And completely illogical by the way. )

A clue is that no one who can't break 50 for 400m has a shot

at any medals at 10000m whereas in the old days nobody who could break 50 for 400 ever bothered with the 10000m.

Ventolin, God bless him, cites studies decades old, ignoring

95% of what's been learned since that challenges the paradigms

and then there is the pesky fact that Ethiopians and Kenyans are not

actually sports cars.

The 10000m is not a steady state event and allometric

scaling factors make it relatively reasonable to break away.

This is not cycling. You may see 14/13 for 5000m splits but

you sure won't see 70sec / lapn for 8000m. Hell, Bekele might

lead the whole thing.

Farah will be hurting more with ten laps to go this year

than he was hurting last year with two laps to go.

Mo Farah is very capable of going 13:40/13:10 including a 54 final lap to run 26:50 so I doubt in this type of scenario Dejen will beat him. On the other hand if Ethiopia work together it could get really interesting. Having said that, they need to work in the sense that Dejen Gebremeskel is their Alpha Dog because the following can be said about their others:

Kuma - WHO?

Jelain - got lucky in a slower race, definitely knows he is not the alpha dog and realizes in a duel against Mo, he will lose.

Merga - ever since he was Mo's Bitch, Imane hasn't raced against Farah. coincidence?

BIG Mistake for them to not add Kenenisa Bekele and I think this will come out to haunt them.

Farah - Gebremeskel - Rupp/Merga in order?

reed wrote:

if gebremeskel wants to lead to make it a 26:50 race, that's fine. but farah will be sitting just a couple hundred meters back using much less energy.

Fixed. Mo is not capable of sub-27 anymore. 26:50 would utterly destroy him.

I still think Gebremeskel should sit on Farah and not make his move too soon.

Dejen finished second behind Farah last year not because he lacked a kick but because of all of the traffic he had to weave around throughout the last lap while Farah ran clear.

Farah can keep up with 26:51.

Trying to run away from him isn't going to work.

Watch Gebremeskel in the last lap of the Olympic 5000 and see all of the issues he had to deal with.

He was 7th or 8th with a lap to go.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C93qwVmBseE

* wrote:

I still think Gebremeskel should sit on Farah and not make his move too soon.

Dejen finished second behind Farah last year not because he lacked a kick but because of all of the traffic he had to weave around throughout the last lap while Farah ran clear.

Farah can keep up with 26:51.

Trying to run away from him isn't going to work.

Watch Gebremeskel in the last lap of the Olympic 5000 and see all of the issues he had to deal with.

He was 7th or 8th with a lap to go.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C93qwVmBseE

Yes, I agree that Gebremeskel should not make his move too soon, but I think Gebremeskel can beat Farah with superior stamina, in the sense that nobody in the field besides Gebremeskel can run 26:30. Dejen ran 26:51 in less than top shape while leading 2/3 of the race. Dejen can run away from Farah, but because that is so difficult, he should probably just go along for the ride until very late.

if he gets back to last year's form he coud also kick with mo

that 12'46 with a blistering 54 finish

( homestretch out wide ) got me thinking that he had to be in something like 3'29/3'30 shape at the time

( pointless to post it then as he was unlikely to run a 1500 & no one wouda believed me )

now mo has gone & run a proper 1500, that supposed 3'29/3'30 for dejy does look decidely ungenerous

he does need last year's speed though

6-7% sounds way too high.

racetraining wrote:

With the leader using 6-7% more energy than the ones following

No.

Your lame wrote:

I think Mo farah will win, however rupp will get beaten to third place further enforcing the idea that his silver medal was soft and lacked real competition.

Are you joking?

Rupp will be LUCKY to get in the top four.

You're right that his silver was soft, though.

The fastest 10000 meter debut ever?

Let's remember that he basically had to do that time to even get on the Ethiopian 10000 team - and that he and Kuma (who must have been there for the same reason) might have pushed each other to their absolute limit as of then.

It'll be very interresting to see what he can do in Moscow though, dude's probably been home working on his kick since then.

Also, I wouldn't count Jeilan out as a "lucky" winner in 2011, he wen't on to win the African championsships a few weeks later in the same fashion before getting injured. And he had two World Junior titles before that, one on track and one in cross country. He's got FOUR major titles already and he's used to winning Mo style, if he's injury free now and there's enough time for him to build back his stamina (he was not that far behind in his last 5000 earlier this year) I'd say he's the number one threat to Mo.

chet wrote:

I think Gebremeskel can beat Farah with superior stamina, in the sense that nobody in the field besides Gebremeskel can run 26:30.

That 26:30 is just a made up number.

I don't see why people would think he has superior stamina.

Farah has never shown a weakness in being able to keep pace.

We know Gebremeskel has run 26:51, mostly leading.

And we know Farah has run 26:46.

Based on that you think Farah could follow Gebremeskel as long as he needed to, as fast as Gebremeskel can go, and then have enough left to take over the last lap and win.

Farah ran half of a marathon this year and is planning to run a complete marathon next year.

So I assume he has upped his endurance since he ran that 26:46.

Gebremeskel needs to make Farah do the work and be in position to out kick Farah.

Like Jeilan in 2011.

Bad Wigins wrote:

Fixed. Mo is not capable of sub-27 anymore. 26:50 would utterly destroy him.

Please stop spouting this nonsense.

* wrote:

I still think Gebremeskel should sit on Farah and not make his move too soon.

Dejen finished second behind Farah last year not because he lacked a kick but because of all of the traffic he had to weave around throughout the last lap while Farah ran clear.

Farah can keep up with 26:51.

Trying to run away from him isn't going to work.

Watch Gebremeskel in the last lap of the Olympic 5000 and see all of the issues he had to deal with.

He was 7th or 8th with a lap to go.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C93qwVmBseE

He might have a superior kick but he needs superior tactics. Ditto this for Edwin Soi and Alamirew in the 5k, both are capable of keeping with Farah's kick. What they need is great position in the last lap. Farah has been superior in that respect.