Rupp 10,000 meter prediction thread

So in other words, you are saying Rupp is going to finish 6th at Stanford, even though he finished 8th at the WC last year? The weather is not looking promising in Eugene.

trotty moore wrote:

27:42.65, 5 people at Stanford run faster than this time with the winner in Stanford going 27:20.34.

Do you guys honestly believe that Rupp can't improve on his 10K time set clear back in 2007 even though he has remained generally healthy since then? Almost 3 years of quality workouts will make him go slower?

Coach D wrote:

His 3000/5000 times have improved greatly in the last two years, but his 10000 has not improved. Some of that may have to do with concentrating on NCAA events. But given the progression in recent years, I'll say 27:38.

It wouldn't surprise me, though, if Sam runs faster than the AR (won't count, of course) in Palo Alto.

mj wrote:

Our respective predictions are exactly 25 seconds (1 second per lap) apart. I'm not saying that one second is insignificant, but if he's going to hit the record, he'll have to AVERAGE less than 65.4 second laps.

I'm basing my prediction on the fact that I think the Rupp camp has a high level of confidence in his ability to hit the record.

So exactly how would you advise him to pace the first half of the race assuming the AR is the goal? I think a slight negative split from 5k to 10k is advisable, but if he goes out in 66 pace for the first 5K (13:45), then he'll have a lot of ground to make up in that second half.

I'm struggling with what your rationale is for how Rupp will approach this race.

I don't think he should go for the record, because I don't think he can get it. I think running 65's is going out too fast, and probably alone. If he could convince someone to tow him through 5k in 65's, that might be one thing. I guess if I were AlSal and I really wanted the record, I would try to set him up with someone to take him out in 66's for roughly the first 5k. Then you can maybe have a shot at ratcheting down to 65's for the last 5k and you can be within striking distance of the record with 2 to go. That's if he has a perfect day.

mj wrote:

Our respective predictions are exactly 25 seconds (1 second per lap) apart. I'm not saying that one second is insignificant, but if he's going to hit the record, he'll have to AVERAGE less than 65.4 second laps.

I'm basing my prediction on the fact that I think the Rupp camp has a high level of confidence in his ability to hit the record.

So exactly how would you advise him to pace the first half of the race assuming the AR is the goal? I think a slight negative split from 5k to 10k is advisable, but if he goes out in 66 pace for the first 5K (13:45), then he'll have a lot of ground to make up in that second half.

I'm struggling with what your rationale is for how Rupp will approach this race.

I don't think he should go for the record, because I don't think he can get it. I think running 65's is going out too fast, and probably alone. If he could convince someone to tow him through 5k in 65's, that might be one thing. I guess if I were AlSal and I really wanted the record, I would try to set him up with someone to take him out in 66's for roughly the first 5k. Then you can maybe have a shot at ratcheting down to 65's for the last 5k and you can be within striking distance of the record with 2 to go. That's if he has a perfect day.

Ryan Foreman wrote:

Do you guys honestly believe that Rupp can't improve on his 10K time set clear back in 2007 even though he has remained generally healthy since then? Almost 3 years of quality workouts will make him go slower?

The bottom line is that he hasn't gotten faster in the 10000, even though Ritz improved significantly using what Salazar claimed was some of the same speed training. Caucasian runners have had great difficulty getting below 27:30, over all the time since Nenow. Why would going from 13:18 to 13:14 imply a much faster time than Berlin?

mj wrote:

Our respective predictions are exactly 25 seconds (1 second per lap) apart. I'm not saying that one second is insignificant, but if he's going to hit the record, he'll have to AVERAGE less than 65.4 second laps.

I'm basing my prediction on the fact that I think the Rupp camp has a high level of confidence in his ability to hit the record.

So exactly how would you advise him to pace the first half of the race assuming the AR is the goal? I think a slight negative split from 5k to 10k is advisable, but if he goes out in 66 pace for the first 5K (13:45), then he'll have a lot of ground to make up in that second half.

I'm struggling with what your rationale is for how Rupp will approach this race.

I don't think he should go for the record, because I don't think he can get it. I think running 65's is going out too fast, and probably alone. If he could convince someone to tow him through 5k in 65's, that might be one thing. I guess if I were AlSal and I really wanted the record, I would try to set him up with someone to take him out in 66's for roughly the first 5k. Then you can maybe have a shot at ratcheting down to 65's for the last 5k and you can be within striking distance of the record with 2 to go. That's if he has a perfect day.

Oh, thanks letsrun "elves". Your stupid board was having "problems" and now it made me triple post and look like an idiot. I hate this message board.

Coach D wrote:

The bottom line is that he hasn't gotten faster in the 10000, even though Ritz improved significantly using what Salazar claimed was some of the same speed training. Caucasian runners have had great difficulty getting below 27:30, over all the time since Nenow. Why would going from 13:18 to 13:14 imply a much faster time than Berlin?

The only reason he hasn't dropped his 10k in conjunction with his other PRs has been lack of opportunity. He didn't run Berlin as a time trial race.

UsedToBeKnowItAII wrote:

Oh, thanks letsrun "elves". Your stupid board was having "problems" and now it made me triple post and look like an idiot. I hate this message board.

I'm sorry, I only understand excuses if they are yelled at me 3 times.

For the record, Rupp will not break 27:20. Not in April, and not alone is Eugene.

Actually he has gotten faster in the 10,000 in every way that matters. In 2007 he wasn't even close to having the finishing kick he has now. That has helped him win races that he wasn't winning in 2007. The bottom line is that for years now he has not been interested in setting the best time just for the sake of setting the best time. Now for the first time ever, as far as I can see, he wants to run a race for time because he knows thats what he needs to do to mix it up with the best East Africans. And for some reason people have a problem with that.

He ran in the same race in Berlin that Ritz ran 27:22 in--and three Africans ran under 27.

the reality of it wrote:

For the record, Rupp will not break 27:20. Not in April, and not alone is Eugene.

I'm presuming that the two unattached Kenyan guys (Simon Ndaringu and Matthew Kisorio) showing in the Eugene start list are paid pacemakers so he shouldn't be alone until the end and won't have to worry about tactics. There's still the question of weather and how much margin he has in his fitness. Pretty sure he'll PR but may well miss the AR. I'll give him 27:18 this round.

Thats right. After he peaked for the NCAA season 3 months before, then tried to run ahead of Ritz to keep in touch with the front group and died in the last couple miles. So whats your point?

Coach D wrote:

He ran in the same race in Berlin that Ritz ran 27:22 in--and three Africans ran under 27.

His point was someone said he didn't run Berlin as a time trial race yet Ritz ran a PR so the opportunity was there.

Your point that he peaked earlier is fine, just don't say he wasn't in a fast race (which someone else said).

Anyway, I don't like the contingency plan of going to Stanford if the weather is bad.

Mentally it gives him a chance to quit before he starts and that doesn't sound very committed.

Some useful information for some of the posters on this thread here:

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=3518594

Executive summary: Rupp does not run alone

I'm gonna go with ~27:30. He won't have anyone to run with to push him enough to break it. He should just wait and go to Europe to get in a fast race and try to go sub 27.

He'll place 2nd to Ritz

misjudges first 5k: 13:38

finishes up at 27:21

To run 27:10 he would need to go through 7K in about 19:10 or 66sec/lap, then have enough left in the tank to close his final 3K in 8:00 flat or 64sec/lap - this approach is not going out too fast and if he feels good still has a shot at it.

I say no way at this time of year for him - predict 27:28.50