Rupp 10,000 meter prediction thread

27:42.65, 5 people at Stanford run faster than this time with the winner in Stanford going 27:20.34.

He's not announcing he's going for it, if he isn't ready to break it.

27:10

27:23. People don't give enough respect to the American Records. Soft? Sure. But it takes a special race to break them. I don't think this is going to be it.

27:30.34 for 3rd.

Bairu wins in 27:19.

Chelanga 2nd in 27:26.

I reckon he needs to come to Europe to have a shot at it

Rupp wins the race with a 27:18, but can't get the AR without anyone to chase the last few laps.

If he goes injury free, he will break the AR in Europe this summer and come in sixth place in the same race.

trotty moore wrote:

27:42.65, 5 people at Stanford run faster than this time with the winner in Stanford going 27:20.34.

His first race in how long?

I suspect that trotty has it right. My own guess: 27:47.80.

I wish Rupp well. I'd love it if he got the AR. But I don't see it happening, and I don't see it as even being close.

He can't get that sort of time here. He needs to do that in the summer at GP event. Meb was hoovered to 27:13 by a line of Kenyans.

yfk wrote:

trotty moore wrote:

27:42.65, 5 people at Stanford run faster than this time with the winner in Stanford going 27:20.34.

His first race in how long?

I suspect that trotty has it right. My own guess: 27:47.80.

I wish Rupp well. I'd love it if he got the AR. But I don't see it happening, and I don't see it as even being close.

Well, he's been racing all winter / spring, including an indoor mile (3:56), indoor 5k (13:14), three indoor 3k's (7:42 at WC's), and the 5K last week at Cal.

He will pace 65's which would be 27:05 pace, and then try to squeeze it down in the last 2k. I'll say 26:58.

DNS - sprained pinky toe sidelines him.

mj wrote:

He will pace 65's which would be 27:05 pace, and then try to squeeze it down in the last 2k. I'll say 26:58.

If he goes out at 65's, he won't have anything left to try to squeeze it down. He'll be hanging on and probably crashing. He'll also be running the whole race alone if he goes out at 65's. Good strategy, coach mj.

I believe he will make a legitimate shot at the AR. I honestly believe he'll get it. Rupp and crew have never stated they were "going after" something when he wasn't ready. Sal stated they are going for the AR so Rupp is ready. I don't think he'll beat it by much, the sub 27 will happen in Europe this summer.

He said he's been exceeding every workout since indoors.

Not as talented as Ritz.

I'll give him 27:18 with good pacing.

27:40

Just seems too early in his career and season. An AR would imply he could get very close to 13:00 - He would need a perfect race to get that. And some luck.

Our respective predictions are exactly 25 seconds (1 second per lap) apart. I'm not saying that one second is insignificant, but if he's going to hit the record, he'll have to AVERAGE less than 65.4 second laps.

I'm basing my prediction on the fact that I think the Rupp camp has a high level of confidence in his ability to hit the record.

So exactly how would you advise him to pace the first half of the race assuming the AR is the goal? I think a slight negative split from 5k to 10k is advisable, but if he goes out in 66 pace for the first 5K (13:45), then he'll have a lot of ground to make up in that second half.

I'm struggling with what your rationale is for how Rupp will approach this race.

Anyone who thinks rupp is going to break 27:20, much less the american record, are a bunch of imbeciles. I'm going to say 27:27 at the very BEST.

The 13:32 effort at Cal last week was supposed to approximate the 10k goal pace. It was reportedly windy, but Rupp supposedly ran a "controlled" race. Does this mean 27:04 is likely?

Incidentally, the 27:09.56 figure in the OP is exactly 2:00 faster than he ran in high school.

look, dude, you casually said he will run a 26:58 season opener, only the fastest non-african time in HISTORY by nearly 10 seconds, and the fastest "white" time (we'll call Barrios a part "indian") in HISTORY by 14 seconds, and of course crush the American Record by like 15 seconds.

Are you starting to realize the significance of a 26:58?? That's a HUGE lifetime goal for Rupp and Ritz. Not a season opener rust-buster race goal.

He ain't breaking 27. No way, no how.

27:24

Meb did it with a 13:11 pr. That really isn't that different than Rupp's indoor time. To go sub 27 he is going to need to be down sub 13:05 in the 5k. That might be at the upper end of Rupp's potential right now but doesn't seem too unreasonable.I would still be surprised by a record. A lot had to go right for one to happen if when the runner is in good enough shape to break it.

5er wrote:

27:40

Just seems too early in his career and season. An AR would imply he could get very close to 13:00 - He would need a perfect race to get that. And some luck.