2To of Salazars runners have placed top 15 at world cross.
Karl Keska (formerly of U of O) finished 13th in the long course in 2000 and Adam Goucher finished 6th in the short course in 2006.
Now obviously the field is deeper now with no short course, but there are not a lot of Africans who are better suited for the short course that cannot beat Rupp over 12K.
Rupp ran faster than Goucher and Keska guys ever have over 10K two years ago (as a 20 year old), and he is clearly WAY beyond that level now. The 30-40 drill that Rupp did by himself last fall went 24 laps before being told to stop with nearly every single split under target pace (meaning 29.xx/39.xx or better). Karl Keska did that workout for years while at Oregon and despite being one of the best cross country runners in the NCAA at that time never reached twenty laps even with the help of teammates. I don't know if Goucher ever tried this workout under Salazar, but it was pretty clear that Salazar has never seen or heard of anyone getting near where Galen did in the workout. And he did it under pace the whole time.
Courses would certainly play a factor, a firmer footing course would be to his advantage. I certainly think top 20 would be achievable and top 10 would be amazing, but possibly attainable.
Next year is not important in terms of summer championships, I would love to see Galen and all of our top guys make a goal of the world x-c championships and then a summer of euro racing.