Haile G bold prediction: ""Kebede is the one to beat, no question."

1) All the best athletes this year are in very good shape, while last year Kenyans were out of shape because there were two and half months of continue rain, not allowing athletes to have a good training.

2) The pace will be very fast, but with Haile pacing, very even, too. This means that 61:45 can have a cost not very high. Under the point of view of how much fuel athletes use for running, it's very much more important to analyze HOW a time comes, than the time itself.

For example, when we go for the final test of lactate, using 6 x 2000m with less than one minute recovery, at increasing speed (6'15" / 6'10" / 6'05" / 6' / 5'55" / 5'50"), if the pace for every test is totally even (in this case we use acustic rabbits, with a bip every 25 meters at the requested speed) we have a real picture of the situation, but if we do the same test without acustic rabbit, and there is some mistake in the ditribution (for example, 6' must be 5 times 72" : if the first lap is 69", and after we have 3 laps in 74", and after we have again the last lap in 69"), the final time is the same, but the level of lactate is significantly higher.

3) In the past, we had some crazy split (the year of Sammy Wanjiru), but with the first 10 km really too fast, situation I don't think we can see again with Haile in front.

4) With this speed, a normal leading Group can be composed in the following way : Wilson Kipsang, Geoffrey Mutai, Emmanuel Mutai, Stanley Biwott, Stephen Kiprotich (he wants to go with the leaders), Tsegaye Kebede, Mekonnen Tsegaye (but he's with the leaders only for growing in experience).

5) May be very difficult to respect the real difference of speed between first and second Group. If at the end of the first half we want 30" of gap between the two groups, inside the race this means about 8 meters of difference every km, and normally this never happens. Knowing the personal tension every pacer has, the second Group has only two chances : a) going together with the first (in this case also Mo and Samuel Tsegay run under 62') or b) trying from the beginning to have more gap (in this case 62:15 can become closer 63:00).

6) Due to this high speed, at even pace, I think nobody wants (or can) try to create a sudden gap running 2-3 km at crazy speed (like Wilson did in the past). I think more logic that, after 30 km, front runners such as Geoffrey (remember Boston 2011...), Wilson, Tsegaye Kebede and Emmanuel Mutai start to push progressively their speed. In my opinion, this is the last Group of runners staying together, with some chance for Stanley Biwott till 5 km from the end.

7) Weather conditions seem to be very much better than last year. For those reason, I think possible to see 2-3 athletes under 2:04 at the end of the race.

8) If the race can follow this development, I think Mo can't have any chance for going on the podium. His realistic goal is to destroy the National record. And, of course, running 10000m in the next WCh 2015 and OG 2016 can remain his priority, because of sure he doesn't look at the Marathon when there are titles to win.

ventolin^3 wrote:

douglas burke wrote:i pick kebede as well.

of course you woud

no brains but go with ethiopian regardless of field

Haha nice on vento, up high!

HardLoper wrote:

xenonscreams wrote:

How is this a bold prediction? He won last year and he's very young. Lots of room for improvement. I'd pick Kebede to beat Mo without question.

Picking ANY one runner is bold. Even the favorite on paper only has like a ~30% chance of winning a race like this.

Yeah, "real" bold…its like he could lose his whole legacy on that pick.

So basically what your saying is only wilson and mutai's only really have a chance of winning London if its quick, because they are the only ones to have broken 2.04...

ventolin^3 its a shame that you think you know more than you actually know... It's posts like that, where we all think, you don't.

I would have loved to have heard someone at the press conference say to Kebede last year.. so you won that race by default.. (what a stupid thing to say, show the guy some respect!)

Canavoa set this guy straight.

Ibrahim Jeilan is in the field.

Is this guy the most misguided in all of track and field?

The guy knocks off a peak Farah with a 52x second last lap, the most animalistic finish i can recall seeing and he's now moving up to the marathon????

I'd be trying to get his 800 down to 145 or less and then see what I could do in the middle distances rather than going into the ultra competitive marathon distance.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jfw9IhDjkkw

longjack wrote:

I'd be trying to get his 800 down to 145 or less and then see what I could do in the middle distances rather than going into the ultra competitive marathon distance.

And you'd be poor.

quote: and you'd be poor.

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good point actually, money. the money is in the marathon and farah's conqueror is in the London race.

i wonder how much jelian is getting for london?

but back to the original point, when you've got bekele and gebreselasse as role models, why not follow in their steps?

those guys made a ton from the track.

v6 wrote:

All of those things re: Kebede are good, but Wilson Kipsang has run under 2:05 four times, including twice under 2:04. I think it'd be insulting not to consider him the favorite.

Kebede beat Kipsang by a comfortable margin in winning this race last year. I don't consider it an insult to pick the defending champion as the favorite instead of picking the guy who finished fifth.

I think that Kebede has been widely unestimated and underappreciated throughout his career. Geb has been one of his greatest supporters, and Kebede's performances have justified Geb's assessment of Kebede over the years. I still have a hard time imagining a guy that small and with that running form winning against the best distance runners in the world, but he's shown that he can do it, and Geb seems to think that he's in especially good condition to do again.

For once, ventolin is right about something. He's going to pick an Ethiopian, and so the obvious choice is Kebede.

Eh, simply pointing out that he has a 2:04:38 PR (which isn't slow, I don't know why you are making it seem as if it's slow) and claiming he can't go quicker is a pretty shallow argument. Sammy Wanjiru had a PR north of 2:05 and was, most would say, the best marathoner in the world prior to his death. Kebede was often right with Wanjiru, and that was when Kebede was still very young. They had some great duels. He'll certainly be in the mix and has a very good shot no matter the pace.

I'm saying that he was right that obviously Geb wouldn't pick a Kenyan, so it shouldn't surprise anyone that he picked Kebede. I mean come on.

Everything else was just normal Vent drivel that should be ignored.

longjack wrote:

Ibrahim Jeilan is in the field.

the most animalistic finish i can recall seeing and he's now moving up to the marathon????

whoops. racist

george oscar bluth wrote:

I'm saying that he was right that obviously Geb wouldn't pick a Kenyan, so it shouldn't surprise anyone that he picked Kebede. I mean come on.

Everything else was just normal Vent drivel that should be ignored.

100% agree. He wasn't going to pick a Kenyan.

I shouldn't have replied to you, should've replied to ventolin, my B. I think vent's idea that Kebede CAN'T win because he just has that measly 2:04:38 to his name is weird because 1) that's actually really fast, and 2) he was challenging Wanjiru when Kebede was still very young.

longjack wrote:

good point actually, money. the money is in the marathon and farah's conqueror is in the London race.

Jelian isn't Farah's only conqueror. Why does everyone forget that Farah didn't even PLACE at 2012 world indoors?

ventolin^3 wrote:

guy has a 2"04'38pb & his pb is over 1'00 slower than the course record of that particular course - dennis's 2"03'45

Over one minute?

2:04:38 - 2:03:45 = 53 seconds.

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Thank you for the great post, Renato.

Kennis Dimetto wrote:

ventolin^3 wrote:

guy has a 2"04'38pb & his pb is over 1'00 slower than the course record of that particular course - dennis's 2"03'45

Over one minute?

2:04:38 - 2:03:45 = 53 seconds.

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Thank you for the great post, Renato.

1. Geoffrey Mutai - 2:03.15

2. William Kipsang- 2:03.29

3. Tsegaye Kebede - 2:04.30

NativeSon wrote:

1. Geoffrey Mutai - 2:03.15

2. William Kipsang- 2:03.29

3. Tsegaye Kebede - 2:04.30

I think he meant to compare Kebede's PR with the course record that belongs to Kimetto.

Renato, thanks for continuing to post here, it's very much appreciated being able to look inside your mind from time to time.

NativeSon wrote:

Kennis Dimetto wrote:

Over one minute?

2:04:38 - 2:03:45 = 53 seconds.

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Thank you for the great post, Renato.

1. Geoffrey Mutai - 2:03.15

2. William Kipsang- 2:03.29

3. Tsegaye Kebede - 2:04.30