2024 NCAA XC Men’s Individual Preview: Graham Blanks Chases Repeat Against Stacked Field

The last NCAA cross country championships held in Madison, Wis., featured one of the most iconic finishes in the event’s 86-year history. On a winter wonderland of a course, home favorite Morgan McDonald of the University of Wisconsin outsprinted Stanford’s Grant Fisher for the win by half a second, kicking up snow with every step. Fisher, as you may know, has since gone on to experience some success at the professional level.

So have some of the other runners in the top 10 that day: Joe Klecker was 8th for Colorado and Conner Mantz was 10th for BYU. There’s even hope for those farther back in the pack. Yared Nuguse was 59th for Notre Dame, while BYU’s Clayton Young was 72nd for BYU. All four have gone on to make US Olympic teams.

As the NCAA championships return to Madison this week, there are more than a few men in this year’s field who figure to make their own Olympic teams one day. In fact, one (or two*) of them already has: reigning champion Graham Blanks of Harvard was 9th in the Olympic 5,000m final in Paris in August. Can Blanks repeat as champion at the Thomas Zimmer Course on Saturday? Or will the likes of New Mexico’s Habtom Samuel, Texas Tech’s Solomon Kipchoge, or North Carolina’s Parker Wolfe take him down?

Let’s make the case for and against the main contenders for the hardest title to win in collegiate distance running.

*Samuel also qualified for the 2024 Olympics in the 10,000 but Eritrea wouldn’t let him run.

Reminder: You can watch the meet live on ESPNU on Saturday starting at 9:30 a.m. ET.

Get ready for NCAAs and show your support by buying a Graham Blanks or Parker Wolfe shirt. Visit the LetsRun.com store to get yours today — Wednesday is your final day to order before the price goes up and to guarantee you get one as we may not have any left over after Madison!

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Graham Blanks, senior, Harvard
Country: USA
2024 results: 2nd Pre-Nats, 1st Heps, 1st Northeast Regional
Previous NCAA XC finishes: 23rd in 2021, 6th in 2022, 1st in 2023
Track pbs: 7:44/13:03/28:15. 5th ’24 NCAA 5k.

Photo courtesy James B Daves/NCAA

The case for him: Blanks did something last year that had not been done since 2003 — he won the NCAA men’s cross country title as a 21-year-old American (all of the other American winners since 2003 were at least 22). Since then, Blanks has shown that he is not just one of America’s best collegiate distance runners, but one of America’s best distance runners, period. He set the NCAA 5,000m record of 13:03 in December 2023 (since lowered to 12:57 by Nico Young). Then he made the US Olympic team and finished 9th in the 5,000 final in Paris. A second title on Saturday would place him in elite company: the last three Americans to repeat at NCAA XC are Conner Mantz, Steve Prefontaine, and Gerry Lindgren.

History says Blanks has a 50-50 shot of repeating: of the last 10 men to return to school following an NCAA XC title, five of them won it again the following year.

NCAA men seeking repeat XC title, 2000-23

The case against him: Blanks loves to break races open with a big move with a kilometer to go. But at this year’s Pre-Nats meet on the same Madison course that will host NCAAs, Habtom Samuel used Blanks’ own move against him, creating a gap and winning by nearly seven seconds. That was on October 19. Has Blanks erased the gap in the ensuing month?

The silver lining for Blanks is that Pre-Nats was his season opener he still ran really well: his 22:40.5 would have made him the first man under 23:00 on Wisconsin’s course had Samuel not beaten him to the punch. And last spring, we saw how quickly Blanks can improve. Coming back from a femoral shaft stress reaction, Blanks went from 5th at NCAAs in the 5k to 4th at the Olympic Trials in the span of 23 days. This time it’s a little different, since Blanks was coming back from a post-Olympic break rather than an injury. But he should be better than he was the last time he raced in Madison.

Photo courtesy James B Daves/NCAA

Habtom Samuel, sophomore, New Mexico
Country: Eritrea
2024 results: 2nd Cowboy Jamboree, 1st Pre-Nats, 1st Mountain West, 2nd Mountain Regional
Previous NCAA XC finishes: 2nd in 2023
Track pbs: 7:40/13:13/26:53. 1st ’24 NCAA 10k.

The case for him: Samuel came to New Mexico last year as one of the most decorated distance recruits in NCAA history, with two medals at the World U20 championships on the track. The Eritrean made an immediate impact, finishing 2nd at NCAA XC and winning the NCAA 10,000 title outdoors three months after running 26:53 to join Nico Young as the only collegians under the 27:00 barrier. This fall, he won the biggest meet of the regular season by taking down Blanks in course-record time (22:33.8) at Pre-Nats.

The case against him: Samuel has lost twice this season, to Oklahoma State’s Brian Musau at the Cowboy Jamboree on September 28 and to Texas Tech’s Solomon Kipchoge at the Mountain Regional. There’s no shame in losing to either of those guys, but it does show that Samuel is not invincible.

Photo courtesy James B Daves/NCAA

Brian Musau, sophomore, Oklahoma State
Country: Kenya
2024 results: 1st Cowboy Jamboree, 12th Weis-Crockett Invitational, 1st Big 12s, 6th Midwest Regional
Previous NCAA XC finishes: 8th in 2023
Track pbs: 7:38/13:13. 4th ’24 NCAA 5k.

The case for him: Musau may have two losses on the fall, but he is undefeated in races he was trying to win — at both the Weis-Crockett Invitational and the Midwest Regional, he hung back as part of OK State’s team strategy. And in the two races Musau won, he beat some total studs. At the Cowboy Jamboree, he ran 22:55 (the fastest time ever on OK State’s challenging home course) to beat Samuel by eight seconds. And at Big 12s, he looked sensational in beating Kipchoge and BYU’s Casey Clinger.

The case against him: Musau could be the fittest man in the NCAA right now but Oklahoma State is also in the hunt for the team title. And historically, OK State coach Dave Smith has preferred his studs to put the team first at NCAAs and not risk a blowup. Think Girma Mecheso, German Fernandez, and Colby Lowe packing it up in 2010 or Alex Maier hanging back in 2022 when Charles Hicks, Nico Young, and Drew Bosley broke away up front.

“OSU has never had an individual champion in cross country,” Smith says. “And I’ve had plenty of guys that I think had the potential, let’s put it that way.”

That said, sometimes individual ambition takes over — last year, Musau and his OSU teammate Denis Kipngetich were the ones pushing the pace and trying to break up the lead pack at 4 miles. If Musau tries that again in 2024, he may be strong enough to win the whole thing.

Kipchoge at Big 12s

Solomon Kipchoge, freshman, Texas Tech
Country: Kenya
2024 results: 1st Lori Fitzgerald, 1st Arturo Barrios, 2nd Big 12s, 1st Mountain Regional
Previous NCAA XC finishes: none
PBs: 28:06 (10k road)/59:37 half marathon

The case for him: If you’ve heard about Kipchoge, you probably know two things: that he entered the NCAA with a half marathon pb of 59:37 (faster than the American record) and that he is 28 years old. Because of his road racing experience, the NCAA ruled that Kipchoge had to sit out five meets in the middle of the season, but since returning, he has been as good as advertised. He won the Arturo Barrios Invitational by 19 seconds over his teammate Ernest Cheruiyot (4th in the NCAA 10k), then finished 2nd at Big 12s, 1.5 seconds back of Musau. He’s the real deal.

The case against him: This is Kipchoge’s first year in the NCAA and his first NCAA championships. Even for someone as good as him, it is hard to waltz in and win nationals straight away. And while 59:37 may sound nuts for a collegian, is it a better performance than 13:03 (Blanks’ 5k pb) or 26:53 (Samuel’s 10k pb)? There are a lot of great guys in the NCAA right now.

Casey Clinger, senior, BYU
Country: USA
2024 results: 1st Autumn Classic, 4th Nuttycombe, 1st Dellinger, 3rd Big 12s, 4th Mountain Regional
Previous NCAA XC finishes: 24th in 2017, 13th in 2020, 8th in 2021, 7th in 2022
PBs: 7:43/13:17/27:57

The case for him: Yes, the stats above are accurate. Clinger really did finish 24th at the 2017 NCAA meet in Louisville (that’s the one Justyn Knight won) and Saturday will really be his fifth (and final) time running at NCAAs. Clinger graduated high school the same year as Cooper Teare and is 26 years old — one year older than Yared Nuguse. How is he still eligible as an eighth-year senior? Here’s how:

2017: Competed
2018: Mission year 1 (Sapporo, Japan)
2019: Mission year 2
2020: Competed (did not count against eligibility due to COVID)
2021: Competed
2022: Competed
2023: Redshirt (injury)
2024: Competed

Oh yes, Clinger is also quite good at running. He’s the only boy in US high school history to win NXN twice and has gotten better every time he has run NCAA XC. And in June, he finished 5th in the 10,000 at the Olympic Trials. He has been in the top four in all five of his races this fall.

The case against him: Clinger was only 4th at Nuttycombe and 3rd at Big 12s (though he was only 2.2 seconds behind the winner). To win it all, he needs to reach a performance level he hasn’t shown so far in 2024.

Also is it too early to start talking about an NXN curse? NXN has been around 20 years now and no boys’ NXN winner has gone on to win NCAA XC. In fact, no NXN winner had won an NCAA title of any kind until Nico Young’s double at NCAA indoors in March. Granted, the top individuals only began heading to NXN en masse within the last decade.

Parker Wolfe, senior, North Carolina
Country: USA
2024 results: 1st Nuttycombe, 3rd ACCs, 6th Southeast Regional
Previous NCAA XC finishes: 28th in 2021, 9th in 2022, 9th in 2023
PBs: 7:37/13:10. 1st ’24 NCAA 5k.

The case for him: Wolfe may be the most talented runner in the entire race. In June, at the age of 20, he won an absolutely loaded NCAA 5,000m final, then finished 3rd at the US Olympic Trials (though he didn’t get to go to Paris as he didn’t have the standard). When all is said and done, it’s possible Wolfe has the best career of anyone in the field; his coach Chris Miltenberg told LetsRun that Wolfe is at or ahead of the level Grant Fisher (whom Miltenberg also coached) was at during the same point in his career. And Wolfe has already finished in the top 10 at NCAA XC twice before.

The case against him: Even if Wolfe was at full strength, he’s less of a pure XC guy than Blanks (who beat him at NCAA XC in ’22 and ’23) and some of the other guys on this list. And Wolfe is not at full strength. He began the season brightly, winning at Nuttycombe on September 27, but missed three weeks of training after that race due to a foot injury. When Wolfe returned at ACCs, he was not at the same level, finishing 3rd, 12 seconds back of Virginia’s Gary Martin.

There’s also an odd recent trend in the NCAA: no man has won NCAA titles in both track and cross country since Morgan McDonald in 2018-19. The last five NCAA XC champs — Edwin Kurgat, Conner Mantz (x2), Charles Hicks, and Graham Blanks (so far) — were all shut out on the track. Meanwhile guys like Nico Young, Ky Robinson, and Dylan Jacobs all won multiple NCAA titles on the track but none in XC.

Wild cards

• Denis Kipngetich, sophomore, Oklahoma State: Kipngetich was 4th last year as a freshman, finished 3rd in the NCAA 10,000 on the track, and has wins at both the Weis-Crockett Invitational and Midwest Regional (where he broke away to win by 15 seconds) this season, though he was only 6th at Big 12s. Like Musau, the team race may be the priority for him, but Kipngetich has shown he can mix it up with the very best in the country.
• Justine Kipkoech, freshman, Eastern Kentucky: Kipkoech was known as more of a middle distance runner after clocking 3:32 for 1500 this summer for College of the Sequioas, a junior college in California. But after taking 3rd at Pre-Nats and 2nd at the Southeast Regional, he’s shown he can run cross country.
• Patrick Kiprop, senior, Arkansas: The towering Kiprop is a fixture in the front pack at big meets. He was 7th at NCAAs last year, and this season he was 4th at Pre-Nats and 1st at SECs.
• Robin Kwemoi Bera, freshman, Iowa State: Bera has adjusted quickly to the NCAA and has shown no fear in races, leading early at Nuttycombe before he was reeled in. He’s finished in the top five of every race he’s run this year and has been Iowa State’s top man each time out.

JG’s prediction

If there were no team implications, I might lean towards Brian Musau — he’s the best guy on a loaded OK State team and his win over Habtom Samuel may have been the most impressive performance of the season given what Samuel did at Pre-Nats. But I suspect he will hold back a little in this race to mitigate the chance of blowing up and tanking OSU’s team score.

There’s no overwhelming favorite, so I expect a race similar to last year with a dozen or so guys in the lead pack and a bunch of moves. And I expect a similar outcome to last year, with Graham Blanks and Habtom Samuel being the last men standing after everyone has traded haymakers. Last year, Blanks was the strongest over the final kilometer. This year at Pre-Nats, it was Samuel. Who is it this time around?

I’m taking Blanks. Harvard coach Alex Gibby told LetsRun he believes Blanks made good fitness gains in his pre-Olympic training block this summer, noting that he closed his final 2000m in the Olympic final in 4:59. At Pre-Nats, Blanks was still working his way back from Paris, but Gibby believes that Blanks is now back to his Olympic level of fitness.

“Is he better than he was last fall, last December?” Gibby says. “Yes he is. His fitness level has improved.”

That’s enough for me.

1) Blanks 2) Samuel 3) Kipchoge

*LRC The ULTIMATE 2024 NCAA Cross Country Women’s Preview

Check out our other NCAA coverage below and be sure to come back at 5 p.m. ET on Friday for our live video show from Madison after the pre-meet press conference. Join our Supporters Club so you can get it delivered to your phone in podcast form or to listen on demand.

A Supporters Club membership will also get you a free t-shirt as well as instant access to two big NCAA-related articles that we’ve published this week:

LRC Predictions:

• Here’s Why There Are So Many Top Kenyan Runners in the NCAA This Year — Scholarbook & the New NCAA Math Last year, nine Kenyan men and a record seven Kenyan women earned All-American honors at the NCAA XC champs. The total could be even higher at this year’s meet. We explain the reason behind the trend and wonder if there should be an age limit. Is it fair to have a 28-year-old freshman join the team who has a PR faster than the American record?
• RADICAL Change Is Coming To the NCAA — Are You Ready For 10-Man XC Rosters? How House v. NCAA Could Reshape the College Track & Field World NCAA track and field/XC is about to be radically changed. Roster caps are coming — are you ready for a max of 10 people on a men’s SEC roster? But the opportunity to give out way more scholarships is also coming. Will the net change be great or catastrophic, leading to the “the slow death of men’s track & field” as one SEC coach worries.