The ULTIMATE 2024 NCAA Cross Country Women’s Preview

Who will win the women’s team and individual championships on Saturday at the 2024 NCAA Cross Country Championships in Madison, Wisconsin?

Let’s try to figure it out, starting with the team battle.

Reminder: You can watch the meet live on ESPNU on Saturday starting at 9:30 a.m. ET.

Let me start by telling you who won’t win it: North Carolina State. The Wolfpack have won the last three NCAA women’s titles but there will be no 4-peat in 2024. The Wolfpack lost three from last year’s team in Katelyn Tuohy, Amaris Tyynismaa, and Samantha Bush and come into the meet ranked 13th.

The NC State women celebrating last year. Phil Bond photo

Trivia: do you know the last women’s team to win four in a row at NCAAs?

It’s only happened once. Villanova won six in a row from 1989 to 1994. But NC State should be proud they won three in a row as besides Villanova, only one other team had done it (Stanford 2005-07) and no team had repeated in 12 years.

NCAA Women’s Team Title Win Streaks
Villanova 6 – 89-94
Stanford 3 – 05-07
NC State 3 – 21-23
Villanova 2 – 09-10
BYU 2 – 01-02
Wisconsin 2 – 84-85
Virginia 2 – 81-82

So who wins this year?

One of three teams: #1 BYU, #2 Oregon, and #3 NAU.

Let’s start with the pre-season favorites NAU. They had an off day at NCAAs last year and lost by a single point. Head coach Mike Smith is leaving to take a pro coaching job with Nike, but he stuck around one extra year in Flagstaff to hopefully get the storybook ending. The NAU men have won six NCAA XC titles but the women’s team is still looking for their first.

#3 NAU

Why NAU won’t win

At Pre-Nats they were only third and trounced by BYU, 105 to 166. BYU was way better up front (two in before NAU’s #1) and at #5. NAU also lost to BYU at regionals (52-65), although they did beat them early in the year at Notre Dame by the same score, 52-65.

A number of NAU runners have either missed races or are not having great seasons.

Maggi Congdon, who was 60th at NCAAs last year but then had a breakout track campaign where she ran 4:02 for 1500 at the Olympic Trials, was the team’s #2 at Notre Dame. However, at Pre-Nats, she was only 4th on the team and then didn’t run the conference meet. She returned at regionals and was only 7th on the team.

Karrie Baloga was one of the top American true freshmen in the country last year for Colorado (82nd). At Notre Dame, she was NAU’s #1 but then didn’t race again until regionals where she was their #5. She’s a real wildcard that could be key for them.

Why NAU could win

It’s not fair to judge NAU by their showing at Pre-Nats or regionals. As mentioned above, at Pre-Nats, they were without Congdon and Baloga as well as their now #1 in Elise Stearns. Stearns, who was 4th at NCAAs in 2022 and 20th in 2023, told Flagstaff Running News she didn’t train much over the summer and only resumed workouts in October due to a sacrum injury. She didn’t open her season until conference, where she was the runner-up to teammate Aliandrea Upshaw. Stearns was NAU’s #1 at the regional and should be a real low stick at NCAAs.

NAU also didn’t run their #3, #4, #5, or #6 from their conference meet at regionals: Anna Fenske, Ava Mitchell, Alexis Kebbe, and Emma Stutzman. But those are more depth pieces as three of those four ran in the B race at Pre-Nats and none would have placed higher than 84th in the varsity meet if you place their time there.

If you go back to the Pre-Nats results and put Stearns just ahead of BYU’s #1 and Baloga just behind Congdon as NAU’s #5, suddenly the score goes from a 105-166 blowout to fairly narrow loss of 110-122. NAU certainly has a chance and they have way more NCAA experience than the other contenders (more on that later).

That being said, they didn’t really sit any major players at regionals and at that meet, it wasn’t all that close with BYU, who was without their own #1.

#1 BYU 

The BYU women celebrate winning the NCAA XC title in March 2021. Photo by Shane Bevel/NCAA Photos via Getty Images

Why BYU could win

As mentioned above, they’ve beaten NAU the last two times they’ve raced. In the most recent matchup, they did so without their #1 runner Lexy Halladay-Lowry, who has run 9:22 for the steeple and 15:02 for the 5000.

Why BYU could lose 

Halladay-Lowry didn’t run regionals. If something is up with her, there is A LOT less room for error. It’s hard for any team to make up for a loss at #1.

Also not running regionals was former prep phenom Jenna Hutchins, who was only their 10th woman at Big 12s after running as their #3 at Pre-Nats. The Deseret News said that Hutchins is “nursing an injury” and Diljeet Taylor didn’t want to talk to them about her situation last week but she did talk to our Jonathan Gault this week about it.

Taylor told LetsRun that Halladay-Lowry and Hutchins had both been a little banged up. She said Halladay-Lowry will 100% run NCAAs but that Hutchins’ status is still “to be determined.”

#2 Oregon

Why the Ducks could win

The Ducks, who started the year ranked #4 and fell all the way down to #17 mid-year when they were running partial squads, were fantastic at Big 10s, putting 5 in the top 12 of an 18-team conference.

Why the Ducks should be nervous

While they have a LOT of talent, it’s track talent that is unproven at NCAA cross country. No one in their top seven at Big 10s has ever finished in the top 40 at NCAA XC before and only two have ever been in the top 100.

Of course, BYU bombed NCAAs last year (only 14th) and their runners are scant on NCAA XC experience as well. Only one of BYU’s runners was in the top 100 last year and as is the case with Oregon, only two have ever been in the top 100 during their careers.

Having compiled those stats, any BYU or Oregon fan should be nervous. One or two blowups and you generally are screwed. Let’s take a look at NAU’s NCAA XC experience.

So they have four runners who were in the top 100 last year when they didn’t even have a great meet at NCAAs. Four is the same amount Oregon and BYU have, added together (2+2).

I started writing this article thinking the data would show NAU was in big trouble and I thought I’d find a clear favorite. That’s not the case. One can make a strong argument for all three teams.

The reality is, the best teams at Pre-Nats this year were scoring 100+ points, and normally the winning score at NCAAs is higher than at Pre-Nats/Nuttycombe. Only twice in NCAA women’s history has a winning women’s team scored over 150 points. Georgetown won with 162 in 2011 and Stanford won with 195 in 2006. In 2006, Stanford won by going 3-27-45-58-62. Could something similar happen this year?

Diljeet Taylor expects it.

Anyone else?

The 4th-ranked team in the country is West Virginia, who was 4th at Pre-Nats as well. At Big 12s, they lost to BYU 41-60 but they have a lot of firepower up front as Canadian Olympian Ceili McCabe could mix it up for the individual title and Kenyan freshman Joy Naukot (69:26 half marathon, 32:28 10,000) both finished ahead of BYU’s #1. But they are MUCH weaker at #4 and 5 — that will get you killed at NCAAs — and then really have a big drop off after #5. They’d need all three teams ranked ahead of them to run horribly at NCAAs to have a shot.

Individual Race

As we pointed out this week in a feature story, 2024 has been quite the year for Kenyans in the NCAA: LRC Here’s Why There Are So Many Top Kenyan Runners in the NCAA This Year — Scholarbook & the New NCAA Math.

In the women’s race, only four Kenyan women have ever won an individual NCAA title. That number will move to five this year.

The favorite: Pamela Kosgei

New Mexico freshman Pamela Kosgei has to be considered the favorite. Kosegi, 20, is the younger sister of former marathon world record holder Brigid Kosgei. She came in this year as one of the greatest recruits in NCAA history and has lived up to the billing.

At World XC in 2023, Kosegi took bronze in the U20 race, just one second behind Medina Eisa, who would run 14:16 for 5000 later that year. She beat 4th placer Faith Cherotich by 10 seconds in that race and Cherotich is now the Olympic bronze medallist in the steeple.

At New Mexico, Kosgei’s rookie campaign has been flawless. She won the Cowboy Jamboree by 43.5 seconds, Pre-Nats by 3.8 seconds, the Mountain West Champs by 46.8 seconds and the Mountain Regional by 13.7 seconds.

Women’s Mountain Regional 𝘾𝙃𝘼𝙈𝙋𝙄𝙊𝙉!! 🏆

New Mexico’s Pamela Kosgei is headed to the NCAA Championship! pic.twitter.com/c9zCFlG2xu

— Mountain West (@MountainWest) November 15, 2024

At Pre-Nats, she defeated one of the two other women with a shot at the title in Florida senior Hilda Olemomoi, also of Kenya. Olemomoi (15:06/31:51) was 4th at last year’s NCAA meet for Alabama and was 6th in 2022. She was also the NCAA 5k and 10k runner-up behind Parker Valby on the track last spring.

At Alabama last year and this year in the SEC, Olemomoi played second fiddle to Alabama sophomore Doris Lemngole, also of Kenya. Lemngole, who was the NCAA XC runner-up last year to Valby before winning the 2024 NCAA steeple title (9:15 pb and NCAA record), won SECs over Olemomoi by 4.7 seconds although Olemomoi turned the table on her at the regional meet where the title doesn’t mean that much. Lemngole ran 15:04 on the track for 5000 last year but she ran 14:40 on the roads before even going to Alabama.

Doris Lemngole at the 2023 NCAAs. Photo courtesy James B Daves/NCAA

What a finish in the South Regional 🔥@GatorsTF Hilda Olemomoi won the women’s individual title in 19:30.6, slightly ahead of @AlabamaTrack‘s Doris Lemngole.#NCAAXC pic.twitter.com/pj0Eyh73ON

— NCAA Track & Field (@NCAATrackField) November 15, 2024

Anyone else?

It’s hard to envision any other woman winning the title. In terms of the other Power 4 conference winners, Big 12 champ Ceili McCabe of West Virginia has the best chance. The Canadian record holder in the steeple (9:22 pb) was 4th at NCAAs in 2021 and was 4th at Pre-Nats this year, some 10 seconds back of Kosgei. She won Big 12s by 16.3 seconds. Big Ten champ Silan Ayyildiz of Oregon and Turkey didn’t even make the meet last year for South Carolina. ACC champ Grace Hartman of NC State was 63rd at 2023 NCAAs.

There is another Kenyan that probably deserves a mention as well. Tulane freshman Caroline Jeptanui was third at Pre-Nats, but the 25-year-old doesn’t have the past pedigree of some of the other contenders as she’s only a 72-minute half marathoner.

LRC Predictions: Come back on Friday. We’ll make our official prediction on a live video show after the pre-meet press conference. The show will likely be around 5 pm ET. Join our Supporters Club so you can get it delivered to your phone in podcast form to listen on demand.

A Supporters Club membership will also get you a free t-shirt as well as instant access to two big NCAA-related articles that we’ve published this week:

• Here’s Why There Are So Many Top Kenyan Runners in the NCAA This Year — Scholarbook & the New NCAA Math Last year, nine Kenyan men and a record seven Kenyan women earned All-American honors at the NCAA XC champs. The total could be even higher at this year’s meet. We explain the reason behind the trend and wonder if there should be an age limit. Is it fair to have a 28-year-old freshman join the team who has a PR faster than the American record?
• RADICAL Change Is Coming To the NCAA — Are You Ready For 10-Man XC Rosters? How House v. NCAA Could Reshape the College Track & Field World NCAA track and field/XC is about to be radically changed. Roster caps are coming — are you ready for a max of 10 people on a men’s SEC roster? But the opportunity to give out way more scholarships is also coming. Will the net change be great or catastrophic, leading to the “the slow death of men’s track & field” as one SEC coach worries.
• LRC 2024 NCAA XC Men’s Individual Preview: Graham Blanks Chases Repeat Against Stacked Field

Get ready for NCAAs and show your support by buying a Graham Blanks or Parker Wolfe shirt. Visit the LetsRun.com store to get yours today — Wednesday is your final day to order before the price goes up and to guarantee you get one as we may not have any left over after Madison!

Get the latest LRC shirt for 50% off to generate some buzz for NCAA XC