2021 Boston Marathon Preview: Quantity Over Quality, Des Linden v Molly Huddle, & Jordan Hasay’s Stockdale Paradox

By Jonathan Gault
October 7, 2021

When the starting gun fires in Hopkinton on Monday morning, 910 days will have passed since the last Boston Marathon. How long ago was that? Well in that race, Jordan Hasay finished third as a member of the Nike Oregon Project under her coach Alberto Salazar.

Now, after one cancellation and one postponement, the Boston Marathon is back for its 125th edition — and first ever staged outside of the month of April. It’s Columbus Day (and Indigenous Peoples’ Day) instead of Patriots’ Day, and the streets will be lined with the reds, yellows, and greens of the autumn leaves rather than the new blooms of spring. But the Newton fire station, Heartbreak Hill, Kenmore Square? They’re all still there, ready to receive thousands of racers come Marathon Monday. And the traditional Red Sox game could be in the cards as well. It won’t start at 11:05 a.m. as usual, but Game 4 of the Red Sox-Rays American League Division Series is scheduled for Monday at Fenway Park.

The usual cadre of former champions will be back, headlined by Lelisa Desisa, Edna Kiplagat, and Des Linden, along with American stars Scott Fauble, Molly Huddle, and Jordan Hasay. How will it all shake out in a Boston Marathon unlike any other? We set the scene below.

Race details
What: 2021 Boston Marathon
When: Monday, October 11. Elite races start at 8:37 a.m. ET (men) and 8:45 a.m. ET (women).
Where: Boston, Mass.
How to watch: Live on NBC Sports Network at 7:30 a.m. ET. Locally, the race will also be broadcast on WBZ4; if you live in New England, you can also stream the race live on CBSBoston.com.

*2021 elite fields *All LRC 2021 Boston Marathon coverage

1) Boston has taken the “quantity over quality” approach for its elite races

On paper, the 2021 Boston Marathon fields look deep — shockingly deep, in fact, in a year featuring five majors and the Olympics crammed into a three-month window. The men’s race features 12 men who have broken 2:07 — second only to the 2020 Tokyo Marathon among World Marathon Majors since LetsRun.com started tracking WMM fields in 2017. It’s a similar story in the women’s race, which features 13 women who have broken 2:23 — the most since we began tracking the majors (though 2020 Valencia also had 13).

But the numbers are slightly misleading. Below is a look at the seven women in the field who have broken 2:21 and their recent results.

Three haven’t run a marathon since the end of 2019. Two more haven’t run one since March 2020. And of the remaining two, one is Jordan Hasay, who didn’t break 2:30 in either of her marathons last year. That leaves only Angela Tanui, who has won both of her marathons in 2021 — including a 2:20:08 win in Tuscany in April that puts her #7 on this year’s world list — as an athlete coming into Boston in great form. Going back farther, the Boston field features just one woman from the world top 20 in 2020 (#14 Sutume Kebede, 2:20:30) and two from the top 20 in 2019 (#14 Mare Dibaba, 2:20:21; #15 Worknesh Edesa 2:20:24).

And here are the recent results of the men in Boston who have broken 2:06:

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Very few of them have been in good form. Two-time Boston champ Lelisa Desisa ran well at the Ethiopian Trials but dropped out of the Olympics nine weeks ago. Benson Kipruto is coming off a win in Prague but in only a 2:10 race. The fastest marathoner in the field in 2021 is Wilson Chebet but he was only 13th in Milan in 2:08:38, is 36 years old and hasn’t broken 2:08 since 2013. It’s been a while since anyone in this field has run a great marathon.

Obviously there are reasons why some of these athletes haven’t raced in a while as the pandemic has drastically reduced racing opportunities (though many of the world’s best did still race last year, either in London or Valencia). And it’s not to say that all of the men and women above are washed up. But this will be a very different race than London, which featured a number of the world’s very best marathoners coming into the race in great form.

Instead, there’s a whole bunch of athletes who have run well at some point in the last 10 years. Because of the sheer number of them — again, 12 sub-2:07 men and 13 sub-2:23 women is a ton — it’s inevitable that a few will have good days and produce a race for the win worthy of the Boston Marathon. It’s also inevitable that a few are totally washed up and are just in Boston to collect a paycheck. Without recent results to go off for many of them, sorting them out before the race is next to impossible. Thankfully, we won’t have to wait long for an answer. Just check the results Monday afternoon.

2) There will be some intriguing debutants

The most exciting runners in this year’s international field may be the athletes making their marathon debut. There is always a degree of curiosity when an athlete races for the first time at 26.2 miles, and that is heightened when they boast a resume like some of the athletes debuting in Boston.

Yimer after winning the 2020 Houston Half (Courtesy Doyin Odulana/Seven Media)

For starters, there’s Jemal Yimer, who has had a ton of success at shorter distances. He’s run 26:54 for 10,000 (5th at ’17 Worlds), and has been one of the world’s best half marathoners in recent years, taking 2nd at ’18 RAK, 4th at the ’18 World Half, and winning ’20 Houston. With a 58:33 half pb, he is the Ethiopian record holder and eighth-fastest man ever at the distance.

Technically, this isn’t Yimer’s debut — he dropped out of Valencia last year around the 35k mark — but his agent Malcolm Anderson says training has been going well (he tuned up with a 60:30 win at the Antrim Coast Half on August 29) and believes marathon #2 should go more smoothly.

“He fell at the first drinks station in Valencia and he was always playing catchup,” Anderson says. “He got back on the group very quickly and that cost him at the end of the race.”

The other men’s debutant, Leonard Barsoton of Kenya, 26, has also excelled in the half and XC as he was 6th at the World Half in 2020 and 2nd at World XC in 2017. He owns a 59:09 HM best. He’s been in decent form this year as well, running 59:59 in April and 60:20 in July.

On the women’s side, Kenyan-born Kazakh athlete Caroline Chepkoech, 27, boasts a gaudy 65:07 pb in the half, which was fifth-best in history when she ran it in 2018. And Kenya’s Monicah Ngige, 27, ran 67:29 in Houston in 2019, but her results since then haven’t been quite as impressive.

3) What will we see from US stars Molly Huddle and Des Linden who are now 37 and 38 years old?

Linden knows a thing or two about running Boston

The two most accomplished Americans in the women’s field are Molly Huddle and Des Linden. Though similar in age — Huddle is 37, Linden 38 — they are at drastically different points in their marathon career. Linden is in the “victory lap” portion. She’s run 2:22, she’s made two Olympic teams, she’s won a major. Everything from this point is gravy, which is why Linden is now trying crazy stuff like breaking the 50k world record or trying to run Boston and New York in a four-week span. The thing is, Linden is still so good at this marathoning thing that you have to treat her seriously to finish as the top American — especially in Boston, her favorite race and a course she has raced seven times.

Huddle, meanwhile, is still waiting for that marathon where everything goes right. She’s been 3rd and 4th in New York, but her other three marathons — 13th in the rain at ’18 Boston, 12th at ’19 London, and a DNF at the ’20 Trials — were disappointing. Her marathon struggles have come as a surprise given her dominance in the shorter events, highlighted by American records in the 10,000 and half marathon.

Even ignoring Huddle’s marathon history, there is a more pressing issue: her health. Huddle injured her ankle building up for the Olympic Marathon Trials in 2020, an injury that lingered, and earlier this year still wasn’t running right due to a hip injury. It’s hard to imagine an issue that caused Huddle to withdraw from the Olympic Track Trials in June having healed quickly enough for her to get in a great Boston buildup.

Outside of those two big names, keep an eye on Nell Rojas. A former pro triathlete and obstacle course racer, Rojas, 33, found her way back to running a few years ago and has logged some impressive wins recently: 71:44 at America’s Finest City Half in August, 52:13 to outkick Jenny Simpson at the US 10-mile champs on September 12, and 31:52 to win the Cooper River Bridge Run on September 25. It wouldn’t be a shock to see her challenge for top American honors on Monday.

4) Jordan Hasay and the Stockdale Paradox

The last Boston Marathon, held 30 months ago, also happens to be the last time Jordan Hasay had a good race. Hasay viewed that race a stepping stone from a rough 2018 — she had to scratch both planned marathons that year due to injury — to what she hoped would be an American record in Chicago in 2019. Instead, it proved to be a false dawn. Since that race in Boston in April 2019, Hasay has seen her coach Alberto Salazar banned from the sport, torn her hamstring within the first 5k of the Chicago Marathon, switched coaches to Paula Radcliffe, bombed two marathons at the Olympic Trials and Valencia, and switched coaches again to Salazar’s former assistant Pete Julian. It has not been fun.

Both of Hasay’s Boston Marathons have gone great, but she is a different runner in 2021

Writing off Hasay at this point would be foolish, however. She is still only 30 years old in an event where many of America’s brightest stars — Linden, Shalane Flanagan, Amy Cragg, Sara Hall — did not realize their greatest successes until their mid-to-late 30s. But it would be equally foolish to expect the 2:20 Hasay of 2017 to suddenly re-emerge. Hasay’s results have been poor lately, and in an interview with Runner’s World, she described her most recent race, a 16th-place finish at the US 20k champs on Labor Day in 1:14:18, as “the most awful race outcome-wise of my life.”

Julian says he doesn’t know what to make of that result — “the training is not indicative of that at all” — and believes Hasay can turn things around. The talent to run 2:20 does not simply disappear, after all. But Julian is also a realist. He knows that bridging the gap from where Hasay is now to where she needs to be is going to be difficult.

“For me, it’s the Stockdale Paradox,” Julian says. “Jordan has always been this optimist and I’m trying to turn her into a stoic.”

The Stockdale Paradox, for those unfamiliar, refers to James Stockdale, a vice admiral in the US Navy during the Vietnam War. Stockdale was shot down in 1965 and became a prisoner of war at the infamous Hanoi Hilton camp. As the senior naval officer in the camp, Stockdale was frequently tortured but survived the camp and was eventually released in 1973. Author Jim Collins later asked Stockdale about the experience, and Stockdale explained that, somewhat surprisingly, it was actually the optimists who fared worst in the camp.

“They were the ones who said, ‘We’re going to be out by Christmas,’” Stockdale told Collins. “And Christmas would come, and Christmas would go. Then they’d say, ‘We’re going to be out by Easter.’ And Easter would come, and Easter would go. And then Thanksgiving, and then it would be Christmas again. And they died of a broken heart.”

The lesson, as Stockdale saw it, was this: “You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end — which you can never afford to lose — with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality.”

So that’s where Hasay is right now. She may one day return to the Hasay of old, chasing records and wins at the lead pack of the Boston Marathon. But the next few months — perhaps years — might suck.

“She’s gonna get through it,” Julian says. “But it doesn’t mean that she’s going to be home by Christmas.”

Julian says that, in many ways, he and Hasay are approaching Monday’s race as if it is her first marathon. They will enter Boston with no expectations, other than that Hasay will run as hard as she possibly can.

“I’m as curious as anybody who follows the sport and excited,” Julian says. “But I can say that her preparation has gone well based on where she came from. It’s not the Jordan that we’re gonna see in a couple of years, but I can say with absolute confidence that she’s on the comeback and she’s making really recognizable progress from month-to-month.”

5) Who will be the top American man?

One of the most exciting parts of the 2019 Boston Marathon was seeing American Scott Fauble leading the men’s race up the Newton Hills as he and Jared Ward both ran their way to sub-2:10’s. Fauble is back in 2021 seeking top American honors once again and he’ll face some tough domestic competition as Abdi Abdirahman (2:08:56 pb), Colin Bennie (2:09:38 pb), Scott Smith (2:09:46 pb), and Augustus Maiyo (2:10:47 pb, 5th at Olympic Trials) will all be running, plus another group of contenders in the 2:10-2:12 range.

Considering Abdi is 44 and just finished 41st at the Olympic marathon nine weeks ago, I don’t expect much from him in Boston (which probably means he’ll end up on the podium — Abdi is at his best when counted out). Both Smith (6th in 2018) and Maiyo (7th in 2017) have run well in Boston before. Maiyo is in an interesting situation. He’s in the US Army and finished 5th at the Olympic Trials last year as a member of their World Class Athlete Program. But he’s also set to be deployed overseas at the start of 2022. Boston could be a last hurrah for him.

The prediction here is that it comes down to Fauble vs. Bennie, who were separated by just four seconds at the Marathon Project in December (Bennie prevailed, 2:09:38 to 2:09:42). Fauble has spent the last week of his preparation in Rochester Hills, Mich., before flying to Boston on Thursday. Last year, Fauble and his HOKA NAZ Elite teammates — based at 7,000 feet in Flagstaff — felt great running the Michigan Pro Half after spending a week at sea level and the team decided to repeat the stint ahead of Boston.

“It was an opportunity not only to feel good because of sea level but you get the time change out of the way and you get the weather, because Boston and Detroit are pretty close [weather-wise],” says NAZ Elite coach Ben Rosario.

Overall, Rosario is pleased with where Fauble is at heading into the race. His last big workout, a 4 mile-3 mile-2 mile-1 mile effort on Lake Mary Road last week, was one of the best sessions Rosario has ever seen him run.

“He averaged 4:55/mile for the 4 and for the 3 and a little quicker on the 2 and then he closed in 4:46,” Rosario says. “It was all really smooth running under 5:00 pace at 7,000 feet. That’s high-level stuff…he’s never looked that in control at 4:55 pace sustained at 7,000 feet

“…The days he’s looked the best, he’s looked better than he’s ever looked. Was [his buildup] collectively ‘better’ than when he ran [2:09] there in 2019? I don’t know. Maybe close.”

Five races into his marathon career, Fauble has yet to run a bad marathon. His 12th-place finish at the Trials last year may have come as a disappointment, but he also missed 10 days of training a month out from the race with a virus (and still ran a solid 2:12:39 on a brutal Atlanta course). The question is whether Mr. Consistent can be more than consistent in Boston.

“All he’s lacking now is that big home run, which we hope he’ll get at some point, if not Monday,” Rosario says.

Bennie was part of Syracuse’s NCAA XC title team in 2015

Bennie, who at 26 is three years younger than Fauble, has been similarly consistent in his two career marathons, taking 9th in his debut at the Trials and 3rd in 2:09:42 at the Marathon Project. His coach Chris Fox says that his Boston buildup has gone “really well” with no interruptions for illness or injury. Bennie has not had the benefit of training with his longtime friend Marty Hehir (winner of the Marathon Project) for this buildup, but he will have the added motivation of running his “hometown” marathon (Bennie grew up in Princeton, Mass., 70 minutes west of Boston).

“I’m sure he wants to run with the top Americans,” says Fox. “And I assume if you’re the top American or one of the top Americans, you’ll be in the top 10 if you’re running reasonably well.

“…He won’t be with the leaders of the race if the race is 2:06, I promise you that. But he’ll be with the leaders of the race if it’s 2:09, 2:10. He’s probably not going to run 2:09 on this course, but if you get the wind, the weather, you don’t know. But if it’s humid and you don’t get a tailwind, I would assume it’s a 2:11 kind of American thing. What I’m saying is, we’re going to run realistic. We’re not going to go nuts.”

The weather, for the record, looks to be on the warmer side on Monday (low of 59, high of 73, 79% humidity) with a slight 8 mph headwind for the west-to-east race.

If you’re looking for a longer shot for top American, Parker Stinson has run 2:10:53, and CJ Albertson and Reid Buchanan ran in the 2:11’s at the Marathon Project last year (Buchanan was also 9th at the Olympic Trials in the 10,000 and 7th at the US 20k champs). And Matt McDonald, another 2:11 guy, was in position to make the Olympic team last year at 20 miles before fading to 10th place.

Full Elite 2021 Boston Men’s Field
Asefa Mengstu..2:04:06 (Dubai, 2018) …. Ethiopia
Lemi Berhanu …2:04:33 (Dubai, 2016) …. Ethiopia
Lelisa Desisa…..2:04:45 (Dubai, 2013) …. Ethiopia
Benson Kipruto .2:05:13 (Toronto, 2019)….. Kenya
Wilson Chebet..2:05:27 (Rotterdam, 2011). Kenya
Filex Kiprotich…2:05:33 (Daegu, 2019) …… Kenya
Dejene Debela .2:05:46 (Chicago, 2019). Ethiopia
Kelkile Gezahegn…..2:05:56 (Rotterdam, 2018)…… Ethiopia
Thomas Kiplagat …2:06:00 (Seoul, 2019)…….. Kenya
Felix Kandie……2:06:03 (Seoul, 2017)…….. Kenya
Tsedat Ayana….2:06:18 (Dubai, 2020) …. Ethiopia
Geoffrey Kirui…2:06:27 (Amsterdam, 2016) .. Kenya
Yuki Kawauchi ..2:07:27 (Otsu, 2021)……… Japan
Jake Robertson .2:08:26 (Otsu, 2018)..New Zealand
Bayelign Teshager…2:08:28 (Los Angeles, 2020) . Ethiopia
Abdi Abdirahman^……..2:08:56 (Chicago, 2006) …..USA
Scott Fauble……2:09:09 (Boston, 2019) ………USA
Colin Bennie…..2:09:38 (Chandler, 2020)……USA
Scott Smith …….2:09:46 (Chandler, 2020)……USA
Stephen Scullion ….2:09:49 (London, 2020)….Ireland
Augustus Maiyo 2:10:47 (Atlanta, 2020)………USA
Dylan Wykes…..2:10:47 (Rotterdam, 2012).. Canada
Parker Stinson…2:10:53 (Chicago, 2019)…….USA
Matt McDonald.2:11:10 (Chicago, 2019)…….USA
CJ Albertson…..2:11:18 (Chandler, 2020)……USA
Reid Buchanan .2:11:38 (Chandler, 2020)……USA
Jonas Hampton 2:12:10 (Atlanta, 2020)………USA
Tyler Pennel ……2:12:34 (Atlanta, 2020)………USA
Rory Linkletter…2:12:54 (Chandler, 2020) Canada
Jarrett Leblanc ..2:13:51 (Sacramento, 2018) .USA
Carlos Trujillo …2:14:21 (Chicago, 2012)… Guatemala
Luke Humphrey^…….2:14:39 (San Diego, 2011) ..USA
Nitendra Rawat Singh 2:15:18 (Guwahati, 2016)….India
Daniel Ortiz Perez…2:15:41 (Valencia, 2020)…Mexico
Luis Carlos Rivero …..2:15:43 (Seville, 2020)Guatemala
Thomas Toth…..2:16:28 (Toronto, 2019).. Canada
Pardon Ndhlovu …..2:16:47 (Houston, 2019)….Zimbabwe
Brian Harvey ….2:17:05 (St. Paul, 2014) ……..USA
Alex Taylor^ ….2:17:08 (Duluth, 2019) ………USA
Peter Bromka^ 2:19:04 (Sacramento, 2019) USA
Chip O’Hara^.2:21:20 (Tempe, 2020) ……..USA
Eric Blake^……2:22:49 (Sacramento, 2018) USA
Blue Bendum^.2:23:43 (Boston, 2014) ……..USA
Jemal Yimer …..Debut (58:33 Half NR)….. Ethiopia
Leonard Barsoton …..Debut (59:09 Half) …………. Kenya
Nicholas Kosimbei .. Debut (1:00:21 Half)………. Kenya
Harvey Nelson..Debut (1:01:48 Half)………….USA
Girma MechesoDebut (1:02:16 Half)………….USA
Paul Hogan ……Debut (1:04:23 Half)………….USA
Athletes with ^ next to their names are Masters (40+) athletes
NR = National Record

Full Elite 2021 Boston Women’s Field
Edna Kiplagat^ ..2:19:50 (London, 2012)…….. Kenya
Mare Dibaba…….2:19:52 (Dubai, 2012) ……. Ethiopia
Angela Tanui …….2:20:08 (Siena 2021) CR……. Kenya
Workenesh Edesa …2:20:24 (Valencia, 2019)…. Ethiopia
Sutume Kebede …2:20:30 (Tokyo, 2020)…….. Ethiopia
Jordan Hasay ……2:20:57 (Chicago, 2017)……….USA
Helah Kiprop…….2:21:27 (Tokyo, 2016)……….. Kenya
Atsede Baysa…….2:22:03 (Chicago, 2012)…. Ethiopia
Diana Chemtai Kipyogei ………2:22:06 (Istanbul, 2020) ……. Kenya
Desiree Linden…..2:22:38 (Boston, 2011) …………USA
Biruktayit Eshetu ..2:22:40 (Toronto, 2019)….. Ethiopia
Tigist Abayechew .2:22:45 (Dubai, 2020…….. Ethiopia
Purity Changwony…..2:22:46 (Siena, 2021)……….. Kenya
Caroline Rotich….2:23:22 (Chicago, 2012)……. Kenya
Molly Huddle…….2:26:33 (London, 2019)………..USA
Mary Ngugi………2:27:36 (New York City, 2019) …Kenya
Nell Rojas…………2:28:09 (Duluth, 2019) …………USA
Paige Stoner……..2:28:43 (Chandler, 2020)………USA
Shiho Kaneshige..2:28:51 (Osaka, 2020) ……… Japan
Dakotah Lindwurm ….2:29:04 (Duluth, 2021) …………USA
Netsanet Gudeta .2:29:15 (Paris, 2017) ……… Ethiopia
Kellys Arias……….2:29:36 (Hamburg, 2016) NR ……..Colombia
Julia Griffey………2:29:58 (Chandler, 2020)………USA
Bethany Sachtleben…..2:31:20 (Lima, 2019. USA
Dot McMahan^..2:31:48 (Duluth, 2011) …………USA
Sydney Devore…..2:32:39 (Pittsburgh, 2018)……..USA
Hilary Dionne ……2:33:03 (Sacramento, 2018) ….USA
Brittany Charboneau.2:33:14 (Atlanta, 2020)…………USA
Dawn Grunnagle^ ….2:33:14 (Berlin, 2019)…………..USA
Susanna Sullivan .2:33:27 (Chandler, 2020)………USA
Heather Lieberg^ ….2:34:07 (St. Paul, 2019) ………..USA
Caitlin Phillips……2:34:43 (Berlin, 2019)…………..USA
Laurie Knowles^.2:36:01 (Chicago, 2016)……….USA
Courtney Olsen …2:36:21 (Sacramento, 2018) ….USA
Brittany Moran…..2:36:22 (Sacramento, 2019) . Canada
Emma Spencer ….2:37:05 (Berlin, 2018)…………..USA
Rachel Hyland …..2:37:22 (Sacramento, 2018) ….USA
Andrea Pomaranski …2:37:39 (Duluth, 2021) …………USA
AnnMarie Kirkpatrick …..2:37:49 (Sacramento, 2018) ….USA
Gina Rouse^……2:38:41 (Atlanta, 2020)…………USA
Nina Zarina………2:38:50 (Duluth, 2021) …………USA
Jordan O’Dea …..2:38:57 (Lowell, 2019)………….USA
Christina Murphy^……….2:39:15 (Columbus, 2013)…….USA
Laura Paulsen……2:41:17 (Greenville, 2021)…….USA
Hilary Corno^….2:42:14 (Chicago, 2018)……….USA
Caroline Chepkoech……….Debut (1:05:07 Half)….. Kazakhstan
Monicah Wanjuhi Ngige …Debut (1:07:29 Half)…………. Kenya
Elaina Tabb ………Debut (1:10:44 Half)…………….USA
Athletes with ^ next to their names are Masters (40+) athletes
CR= Course Record

Note. The fields may have changed ever so slightly. We checked it for sub-2:10 men and sub-2:25 women. Go here for latest fields.

Talk about 2021 Boston on our messageboard:

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More: Full 2021 Boston Marathon Preview: Quantity Over Quality, Des Linden v Molly Huddle, & Jordan Hasay’s Stockdale Paradox It’s been over 900 days since the last Boston Marathon and we’ve got 3,000+ words to get you ready for this year’s race. Who are the top contenders? Who will be the top Americans? All of that and more.
*Jordan Hasay on the comeback trail at 2021 Boston Marathon / Jordan Hasay and the Stockdale Paradox
*Who will be the top American man at the 2021 Boston Marathon? 9 Americans who have broken 2:12 are entered. Who will come out on top?
*Full 2021 Boston Marathon Coverage