I think the Corona-panic is overblown and I'm unable to see it any other way.

I don't know but... wrote:

... but just be aware your estimations are guesses just like the OP.

Sorry, all guesses aren't equal.

Horrible Person wrote:

David S wrote:

That's something like 200 million deaths. You're underestimating it by a factor of 100.

200 Million will die when less than 90,000 have died in 3 months? Sure buddy, will we escort them to the hospital on our flying pigs?!

Why troll on this topic?

Its blown up because it could get bad. We don't have an example from anywhere fully open to see how bad it would get. I think the measures in place are too draconian - for instance a person was ticketed from watching the sunset from his car in a nearby town. The way the closings and cancellations happened piecemeal was very unprofessional. There need to be city, state, and nationwide pandemic plans.

I don't think you are a horrible person. It is very easy to think this is overblown. I thought that way originally and still do a little.

Two weeks or so ago the area where I live had 2 cases. A couple of knuckleheads that had to go on a cruise. No big deal isolate their butts and all is good.

Last week where I work 20 some people were sent home for being sick. My work is essential so the plant where I work is open. We sanitize 8 out of 24 hours everyday. We do temperature checks on entry. If you feel sick stay home, no issue. We've been wearing masks.

This week our production has dropped to about 50% maybe a little higher. Each shift is missing close to 35% of the work force. 14 confirmed cases out of the 20 sent home. 2 more suspected cases. A good chance there is a lot more.

I sure hope the ones that got it make it through this. A few of them I am good acquaintances with.

It is a panic. Emotion is over ruling logic. On the other hand it is an opportunity if you are bold enough to take advantage of it. On the advice of my boss and financial positions of guys like Warren Buffett, I had a cash heavy portfolio up until a couple weeks ago. When the market cratered (the bond funds I was holding actually went up) I moved into equities (and got skewered on here by a guy named SP2 and others when I did it). My boss has been making hundreds of thousands of dollars selling put options and I have made about $50k in the past couple of weeks riding the stimulus bump on the stocks I picked up. Accept the fact that many invest and politicians governed based upontheir emotions. Take advantage of the emotions.

David S wrote:

I don't know but... wrote:

... but just be aware your estimations are guesses just like the OP.

Sorry, all guesses aren't equal.

A guess is a guess, my friend. It could be right and it could be wrong.

Too bad you don't understand this.

No one knows the future but certainly many try to guess.

MP,

It's so crazy how different everyone's experience with this has been. Some seem to be in the middle of something really bad, others are experiencing nothing. No wonder there is so much confusion and disagreement. Too bad there are really no good answers right now.

I hope all of your co-workers recover quickly and all the others remain healthy and safe.

Thanks for your work!

Horrible Person wrote:

lease wrote:

One of my former students, a man in his 40s and a really good guy, died from COVID-19 yesterday.

Please don't try to tell me that this shi!t's not real.

I'm sorry for your loss my friend.

I'm pretty sure those claiming the virus is 'not real' are just trolls. You should ignore them. We are all aware that it's a threat, but I think it's fair to say a large number of us believe it's a smaller threat than things such as cancer etc. I sympathise with those affected by this illness, but I sympathise with those affected by other illnesses and conditions too.

The reason why cancer isn't comparable is because there's really nothing we can do to stop it. It isn't contagious, so avoiding other people won't stop it. There is no alteration that we could make to society that would prevent cancer or even really slow it down. But with a contagious disease, there's something we can do, so we're doing it.

I would say it's likely you are a horrible person, but mainly you are a stupid and ignorant person. 25,000 people worldwide do not die of cancer each year. It's closer to 1,600 per day. Also, as you have been told, you don't catch cancer from someone else. You have shown us all that you are an idiot. Congratulations.

I don't think you are horrible. It is a disease that develops rapidly and exposes weak health care systems. Experts are terrified of providing predictions that will turn out to be wrong, and a public that loves to feel like a victim. Add this all together and you get the current circumstance.

I don't join in the hysteria, but I follow orders and enjoy the chaos. Look to gain small advantages that will pay off later.

Clompss wrote:

I don't think you are horrible. It is a disease that develops rapidly and exposes weak health care systems. Experts are terrified of providing predictions that will turn out to be wrong, and a public that loves to feel like a victim. Add this all together and you get the current circumstance.

I don't join in the hysteria, but I follow orders and enjoy the chaos. Look to gain small advantages that will pay off later.

Weak health care system? The Healthcare system has been overrun for years. Go into any doctors office on any given day (prior to Corona). The waiting room full ALL DAY.

Try again. About 250,000 cancer deaths every year in the US are preventable. Why doesn't the Government outlaw the behaviors that could save those 250,000 lives? How about 600,000 from hear disease? How about thousands from guns and car accidents?

Another *250,000* per year from preventable medical errors! ?

Interesting post. I may do so!

Smorbun wrote:

I25,000 people worldwide do not die of cancer each year. It's closer to 1,600 per day.

I respect people with alternate viewpoints, but I have no idea where you go this conpletely inaccurate number from. A simple google search will bring up a list of websites and research results estimating that cancer causes 1 in 6 deaths, which means 10 million per year. Even someone who is extremely poor at maths could figure out that that is far far more than 1600 per day.

What is truly gripping is the sudden reduction, from a projection made just three days earlier, of the estimate of how many hospital beds that will be needed at peak. On April 2, IHME predicted 262,092; on April 5, that was reduced to 140,823. The estimated needs for ICU beds and invasive ventilators were also slashed.

The fact that the projections have been reduced by so much so quickly is not the only notable thing. Former New York Times reporter Alex Berenson has been following the IHME modeling like a hawk on Twitter. As he tartly notes, it is not just that the IHME projections on which the government so heavily relies have proved unreliable; it is that they are wrong even about the here and now. The IHME projected on April 5 that hard hit New York would need about 24,000 hospital beds, including about 6,000 for ICU patients at that point; of course, April 5 has already happened, and New York announced that it had 16,479 people being hospitalized, including 4,376 ICU patients — i.e., the model was about a third off on the day it was published.

Berenson reasonably asks, if the model is significantly inaccurate in its application to current conditions that are more easily knowable, how much confidence should we have in its projections for a week from now, or a month from now?

Based on these models, the government is making policy, now and going forward. It is vital that we get more and better information about what is informing them. The decisions to substantially shut down the economy have been based on the assessment that surges in coronavirus infections will outstrip our health-care system’s capacity to treat patients, with the knock-on effect that otherwise treatable ailments will not receive treatment, needlessly increasing the number of serious illnesses and fatalities.

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/dramatic-reduction-in-covid-19-disaster-projections/?utm_source=recirc-desktop&utm_medium=article&utm_campaign=river&utm_content=most-popular&utm_term=first

not in NY wrote:

You are entirely correct. 95% of hospitals in the US are currently underutilized. Yes people are dying in NYC but 99% are old with underlying conditions mostly brought on by themselves. That doesn't matter to the militant, they want the healthy and prosperous to suffer alongside. They didn't care when those people were drinking or smoking or overeating or not exercising because death always seemed so far away. But now for the people who sacrificed all of these years by not drinking and smoking and overeating and being g lazy, sacrifice some more. So leave school and leave your job and stop exercising and watch the media tell you how bad it is.

QFE. They took this as an opportunity to project their own anxiety, fear, and self-loathing on society.

You're part of the problem

We can't tell the future but we can look to the past. The world's population does not have immunity against COVID-19 just like the flu of 1918 which infected 1/3 of the world's population and killed an estimated 50M. This virus does not have the same mortality rate but it does have the potential to infect more than the 1918 flu. The 1918 flu had an R0 of 1.8 and current estimates for Covid-19 have it at 2.2 and this is with a hypervigilent population. Letting our guard down will drive up that R0 number. For argument sake let's go with an R0 of 2.2, then instead of 1/3 of the population being infected, it would be 40% of the 7.8B people on the planet or 3.12 Billion. Assuming a mortality rate of 1% would put the death toll at 31.2 Million people. This may be a best case because the mortality rate of 1% is only achievable with proper medical treatment. Opening the flood gates will completely take down our medical system. Not only will people die from Covid they will die from pretty much everything we can normally treat. Instead of a 1% mortality we're talking mortality rates 2x, 3x or 4x the current estimate. So, if you're ok with 31M to 120M people dying including people dying from ailments that we can normally treat today then let's just say screw it and go ahead open everything up now.