Boston and London will be cancelled - September does not work

Transmission through the air is likely how a choir practice in Washington state got 45 of 60 participants infected and two dead. They kept their distance from each other, and no one appeared to be sick or coughing or sneezing during the event, so singing probably aerosolized the virus to a substantial event. Once aerosolized, studies have shown it's active for at least 3 hours, though it gradually falls out of the air (half life of 1.1 hrs).

The biggest cluster of confirmed cases in South Korea, which eventually caused half the cases in the country, was linked to a church (Shincheonji) where they do hours of singing in close quarters.

The heavier breathing of running, especially in a race, no doubt aerosolizes the virus, and I'd guess it does it at least as well than singing. The Italian super spreader was a marathon runner and someone he ran with likely got it from him, though it can't be confirmed that it was through the air.

Being outside helps disperse the virus, but you wouldn't want to be running behind someone in a pack. Rojo's running side-by-side idea might work for a small field, with the addition of a no drafting rule, like the bike legs triathlon.

I'd like to think we would have vaccine by then, so the race would be held no problem.

https://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus/2020/04/coronavirus-vaccine-upmc-doctors-in-pittsburgh-say-theyve-developed-a-covid-19-vaccine.html

I feel the need to add a few things.

I've read repeatedly about this superspreader runner. Not sure were you got that from. He is "famous" because he was the first local citizen diagnosed with covid-19 (we had chinese tourists already in the hospiltals by that time) - not so much because he brought down entire towns by himself.

Another myth is he was super fit. Think 1:50 HM to put this in perspective (I'd call it above average - but not more).

As this whole thing moves on we are gathering a lot of data and statistics start to be meaningful. In regard to the way of transmission some interesting studies are going on. Many things point to the fact that inhaling the virus is the way most people catch the virus.

This is backed up by numbers.

Bergamo had a big spike in positives some 10 days after their team played their game in the UEFA CL.

Tourists from all over Europe are now suing alpine skiing resorts for allowing infected barkeepers continue to work in crammed apres ski bars and clubs. Many cases from Iceland, Denmark, Netherlands, Germany and Austria can be traced back to some tourists partying in Ischgl.

Carnival gatherings in Germany are also seen in a different light in the aftermath now. Seems to be the same with Mardi Gras over in the States.

In Germany prof. Streeck is doing an interesting research on these things. Apparently it is very hard to catch the virus by touching surfaces. They went into houses with infected people and could only find dead RNA on surfaces.

So back to the topic - I have my place in the 2020 London Marathon. A lot of things need to happen for that kind of race to take place. Think about the 30 minutes before the start. 40000 people crammed together. Closer than any rock concert I have ever been to. To consider also the breathing/snorting while running as rojo said.

A mass event in running really has one of the lowest priorities and one of the highest risks at the same time.

What about elite only:

I can see London pulling this off for one year. In the longer term you have to consider the business side. Elites is where they spend the money (marketing budget so to say). Mass participation is where they make the money.

On a sidenote:

I've read various statistics about numbers of deaths in march '20 compared to march'19. There are huge outliers. If you add in that the shutdown almost eliminated all the deaths from traffic and leisure activities for most of the month this does not look good.

Regards

Italian here wrote:

In Germany prof. Streeck is doing an interesting research on these things. Apparently it is very hard to catch the virus by touching surfaces. They went into houses with infected people and could only find dead RNA on surfaces.

Dr. Osterholm, one of the top epidemologists in the U.S., has been saying the same thing, that there's growing evidence it spreads more in the air, and that surface transmission might be overstated in comparison (not to say you shouldn't be washing hands and cleaning surfaces). He has been citing German studies, so I'm sure he read that.

random person wrote:

I'd like to think we would have vaccine by then, so the race would be held no problem.

Dr. Osterholm said that he could literally make a vaccine overnight, and the article that you cited would be an example of that kind of thing. But to make it safe and effective takes years. He made the analogy that you can have a lot more people planting potatoes, but that doesn't mean the harvest comes any soon because the testing process takes time to ensure that a vaccine is safe and effective. Information from Joe Rogan Experience #1439 or the JREclip from that on vaccines.

Osterholm said in a recent interview, "If I were to be optimistic, I'd say 18 months." Dr. Fauci also 18 months if everything goes perfectly. Prof. Kim Woo-joo, the top health dude in South Korea says it usually takes 10-15 years, but cited Fauci's 18 months if everything goes perfectly. Prof. Kim also pointed out that it usually takes a long time to scale up production to cover everyone, and the first ones to develop the vaccine (among a lot of private and public entities) would most likely have to ration it out. So probably older people would be getting it first.

you can have a lot more people planting potatoes, but that doesn't mean the harvest comes any *sooner

rojo wrote:

eagleeye wrote:

I'm starting to agree. I think in Boston's case, the BAA will do everything to run the race in some form. They might do something like Tokyo did and allow only elites to run.

I think London would be much more likely to do an elite race only than Boston.

But I was thinking about this the other day. Wouldn't a mass marathon be one of the last things to come back. Let's say we've reopened society. I could see doing sporting events with every other seat occupied. And even an elite m marathon. Maybe add a rule for the elite race that the elite pack must run side by side. That way everyone is breathing their own air.

But in a mass marathon, wouldn't everyone in the back is breathing the air that the people in front of them exhaled?

They should do a mass Virtual marathon!

I have a 2021BQ time from a Fall 2019 race and the Trials. Why don’t you?

Congratulations to the 28,226 other runners have already qualified for the 2021 Boston Marathon. Runners who were counting on a Spring Marathon to qualify for the 2021 Boston Marathon and are complaining no one will have a BQ for 2021 should check out this page. Sorry if you aren’t qualified for 2021. Good luck getting a deferral. See you at Boston 2020, 2021, 2022 or whenever you get there to join us. https://findmymarathon.com/bostonmarathonqualifiers-2021.php

whereditgo wrote:

baltimore marathon cancelled this am

Why would you say this? Totally not true.

2021 BQ wrote:

Congratulations to the 28,226 other runners have already qualified for the 2021 Boston Marathon. Runners who were counting on a Spring Marathon to qualify for the 2021 Boston Marathon and are complaining no one will have a BQ for 2021 should check out this page. Sorry if you aren’t qualified for 2021. Good luck getting a deferral. See you at Boston 2020, 2021, 2022 or whenever you get there to join us.

https://findmymarathon.com/bostonmarathonqualifiers-2021.php

Sorry boss, the BAA needs more qualifiers than that to fill the race. Don’t you know that not everyone who qualifies enters the race?

This bloke assuming every elite level athlete who has run that fast this year desperately wants to run Boston 2021 after a year out

Silly! Most elite runners won't even be thinking about Boston 2021 - they have Tokyo 2021!

2021 BQ wrote:

I have a 2021BQ time from a Fall 2019 race and the Trials. Why don’t you?

I do too - Houston. But I applied for my Boston refund last night. I doubt September will work. I also doubt that the refund policy will stay much longer. I doubt there will be much racing at all in 2020. Boston 21 (if it happens) will have to either offer deferrals from 2020 or expand the qualifying window to pre-covid months, or both.

I took the BAA's message like that as well. I can't run it in September, but I am leaning towards bypassing the refund and maintaining my registration in the chance that the Sept race does not happen, and therefore the remaining 2020 registrants get deferred to April 2021. I think it was smart business by the BAA to give the refund option, but also tell us if you request a refund, then you are removed from the registrant pool (therefore if a deferral happens again, you are out of luck). I'm glad they gave us until May 29th to decide on maintaining registration or obtaining a refund. Perhaps things will be more clear by then with all the corona craziness. Let's hope so!

ElRunner wrote:

... therefore if a deferral happens again, you are out of luck...

Not really, if you have a solid BQ from a fall marathon;)

Right lol. Obviously if you qualified with a solid time in the Fall you are set for 2021 ;).

Good post. The choir practice is what made me think heavy breathing is bad but I couldn't find the stats like you did.