BREAKING: Fed estimates 47 million job losses, 32% unemployment!

jamin wrote:

Yippie. Any plans you had in life can now be put off 10-20 years.

Having kids, buying a house, starting a business, finally retiring, etc ... lol forget it.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/coronavirus-job-losses-could-total-47-million-unemployment-rate-of-32percent-fed-says.html

Actually the poorer people are The MORE Babies they tend to have, All The Poor 3rd World Countries are EXPLODING in Population and the Rich Countries are DECLINING (Especially if you don't count Immigration which is mostly from poor Countries) This is THE REAL REASON Politicians Both Democrat and Republican want more Immigration and want the current populations replaced by people who actually have kids. If Americans really don't want more Immigration, then get busy in the bedroom and get the fertility rates beyond replacement levels, which most from the First World Countries have not done in 50-60 years, If Americans had 3-5 or more kids apiece as they did after WW2 Both Democrats and Republicans would halt Immigration, it is REALLY about having enough people to keep the Infrastructure going and having Enough Taxpayers to keep Social Security going and to keep paying Pensions.

I’m pretty happy with things and the way things will be over the long term with real estate and stock market

If you’re not an idiot you win

If you’re an idiot you lose

Some companies will have accelerated growth after this.

But many will be left behind.

It will be uneven.

I can’t see 4% unemployment coming back in the near future.

People will try to secure their footing before spending at the same rate they were.

The deficit will be huge.

Any improvement in the economy and you will see conservative legislators push back hard against any further stimulus.

With all the business and personal bankruptcies Trump will have to declare a natural disaster type relief package for the entire country. The natural disaster industry is probably preparing already.

uneven wrote:

With all the business and personal bankruptcies Trump will have to declare a natural disaster type relief package for the entire country. The natural disaster industry is probably preparing already.

Trump is actually an expert at bankrupting businesses.

Maybe someday the fed will actually raise interest rates and give people and business a reason to save money. Nowadays with no interest earning, it seems that no one bothers to save, so even a small disruption of a month can force people and business into bankruptcy. Whatever happened to having 6 months of expenses on hand? I'm looking at you, United Airlines.

Get a loan from some desperate bank manager or rich guy. Mess around and play the grand businessman, run business into the ground, and declare bankruptcy. Repeat with the next sucker's money. Hopefully he won't bankrupt this country.

X-Runner wrote:

Some companies will have accelerated growth after this.

But many will be left behind.

It will be uneven.

I can’t see 4% unemployment coming back in the near future.

People will try to secure their footing before spending at the same rate they were.

The deficit will be huge.

Any improvement in the economy and you will see conservative legislators push back hard against any further stimulus.

This is most likely. I think consumers are going to be way more cautious with spending after this scare. Employers are going to be leery about new hires. Everyone is going to be shaken up a bit.

Also, FWIW, the economy was already showing red flags prior to Covid being the trigger event. Several big banks have quietly been laying off 10-15% of their staff over the last 12 months. Hedge funds were experiencing an uptick in redemptions by those who saw the writing on the wall.

Finally, an unfortunate side effect of this forced work-from-home is that companies will be given a lot of insight about what jobs actually add value to their bottom line and which ones are basically dead weight. And it will be bye bye dead weight.

Timmy Treadwell wrote:

Maybe someday the fed will actually raise interest rates and give people and business a reason to save money. Nowadays with no interest earning, it seems that no one bothers to save, so even a small disruption of a month can force people and business into bankruptcy. Whatever happened to having 6 months of expenses on hand? I'm looking at you, United Airlines.

A business is not a household. Rather than saving money they invest it back to expand and increase efficiency of operations. Almost no small business has 6 months of expenses.

But United, American, Marriott, etc. should not get a bailout because they have assets and can borrow at extremely low rates, unlike small businesses and consumers.

voltage wrote:

Timmy Treadwell wrote:

Maybe someday the fed will actually raise interest rates and give people and business a reason to save money. Nowadays with no interest earning, it seems that no one bothers to save, so even a small disruption of a month can force people and business into bankruptcy. Whatever happened to having 6 months of expenses on hand? I'm looking at you, United Airlines.

A business is not a household. Rather than saving money they invest it back to expand and increase efficiency of operations. Almost no small business has 6 months of expenses.

But United, American, Marriott, etc. should not get a bailout because they have assets and can borrow at extremely low rates, unlike small businesses and consumers.

I live in a large midwest city. Every night on the news we have small business owners saying they're going to default on mortgages/leases and loans and yet they've been closed two weeks. I'm clearly missing something, why wouldn't a small business prioritize having 3 months of rent at a minimum saved before investing in new equipment, etc?

Bro, why so negative? It’s almost like you want the economy to completely collapse.

A lot these small businesses run on slim margins.

Rent may be a big part of their overhead.

No money coming in is a big deal.

There’s a cost to keeping employees on payroll.

You need to pay your suppliers.

Insurance premiums.

There are taxes to pay.

Skipping rent is an easy early move. Hard to throw you out and replace you. Especially with all other businesses being shut down.

There are plans for dwindling revenue.

Hard to plan for no revenue.

again....brought this up in another thread....the current generation will grow to be very spiteful of the old, frail members of society for this ordeal.

Bad Wigins wrote:

Yes. It's reckless, unbelievably so. Criminally so. The state governors who made these brash decisions on the advice of selected medics and noone else should be recalled and jailed.

Amen! ?

Yah I feel for my Mom. She's 60 and was thinking about retiring soon. I think a good chunk of her savings is in bonds, so this hasn't hurt her too bad but it still sucks. Hopefully things improve in the next couple years.

X-Runner wrote:

A lot these small businesses run on slim margins.

Rent may be a big part of their overhead.

No money coming in is a big deal.

There’s a cost to keeping employees on payroll.

You need to pay your suppliers.

Insurance premiums.

There are taxes to pay.

Skipping rent is an easy early move. Hard to throw you out and replace you. Especially with all other businesses being shut down.

There are plans for dwindling revenue.

Hard to plan for no revenue.

They get two months of free rent, free payroll, free payroll benefits (health care) and free payroll taxes.

Bankrupt Trump wrote:

uneven wrote:

With all the business and personal bankruptcies Trump will have to declare a natural disaster type relief package for the entire country. The natural disaster industry is probably preparing already.

Trump is actually an expert at bankrupting businesses.

Giving it his best shot at whole countries now!!

Actually he had the economy so pumped up, it was going to explode in less than a year anyway.

I just sold a few houses last year I bought during the last recession to have as much cash available as I could.

For those people out of work for at least a couple months, it's going to take a while to recover.

While we have been hearing about non essential travel, what is going to take a big hit is non essential goods and services. People will be so busy catching up on all their bills, they won't have the money for a while to spend on their wants.

voltage wrote:

Timmy Treadwell wrote:

Maybe someday the fed will actually raise interest rates and give people and business a reason to save money. Nowadays with no interest earning, it seems that no one bothers to save, so even a small disruption of a month can force people and business into bankruptcy. Whatever happened to having 6 months of expenses on hand? I'm looking at you, United Airlines.

A business is not a household. Rather than saving money they invest it back to expand and increase efficiency of operations.

Huh? When did they invest to expand and increase efficiency of operations? They used extra cash to buy back their own stocks to boost their share prices. (And the ones who made this decision made a lot of money through their stock options.)

jamin wrote:

Time for the pitchforks wrote:

Everything jumps right into place after this 2 month lockdown.

It's kind of silly to think that everything stops just because of a 2 month break.

This is the first time in history that we've literally tuned off the economy. Why would we assume that it can magically be turned back on?

"Oops."

Next Summer COVID-20 will be worse .