Could Rupp Beat Walmsley at Western States 100 Mile

Fanboy Dot Com wrote:

Walmsley owns the CR at the oldest 100 miler in the world. Do you think Rupp could stand a chance?

Walmsley has the 50 Mile WR, would he have caught Rupp if they had 24 more miles on Saturday?

No he could not. Rupp would never be dumb enough to run the "race" to begin with. You can't beat someone if you don't race them.

I think Walmsley would obliterate Rupp at Western States, for the simple fact that even if Rupp figured out fueling, he would still probably run the more technical downhills way too timidly out of injury concerns (not that I blame him). Trampoline effect shoes (which Rupp has had available since his marathon debut) could have disastrous consequences on the trails.

concerned citizen abroad wrote:

SDSU Aztec wrote:

Is there much money in ultras?

Comparatively, yes, but it depends to a degree on how effectively they can attract sponsors. Look at Sage Canaday, Not even remotely competitive with professional athletes at <= marathon, but apparently able to make a decent living in the ultra scene through a mixture of social media savvy, personality and being a relatively big fish in the very small pond of ultra running. Now imagine if a guy like Parker Stinson went full retard on ultras. Dude would win every race, attract mucho sponsors and make a killing if he played it the right way. Better than toiling in obscurity while getting trounced on the international stage against random East Africans.

When it comes to the U.S. I don't see much interest from sponsors. The races aren't televised and there can't be more than a few hundred spectators. They would be sponsoring people that are relatively invisible..

Think this is a lot like Mayweather v. McGregor. Two people at the top of two different disciplines. McGregor goes to the more refined boxing ring, puts up a good fight but loses. Walmsley hits the road marathon and loses by a few minutes. But if Mayweather hopped in the octagon, he’d be ripped to shreds by McGregor’s kicks, grabs, and ground game. Rupp wouldn’t know what to do with a race 4x the length, 1000s of feet of elevation, and varied terrain. Walmsley wins easily. Both runners are good in their own rights and would easily beat each other in their own events.

SDSU Aztec wrote:

When it comes to the U.S. I don't see much interest from sponsors. The races aren't televised and there can't be more than a few hundred spectators. They would be sponsoring people that are relatively invisible..

Sponsorship interest could continue to grow. Drone footage with internet streaming could make for some epic viewership.

soccerxc wrote:

Think this is a lot like Mayweather v. McGregor. Two people at the top of two different disciplines. McGregor goes to the more refined boxing ring, puts up a good fight but loses. Walmsley hits the road marathon and loses by a few minutes. But if Mayweather hopped in the octagon, he’d be ripped to shreds by McGregor’s kicks, grabs, and ground game. Rupp wouldn’t know what to do with a race 4x the length, 1000s of feet of elevation, and varied terrain. Walmsley wins easily. Both runners are good in their own rights and would easily beat each other in their own events.

McGregor/Mayweather was a joke of a fight and should never have happened. Mayweather either wanted to carry McGregor or was overly cautious, but he and any other top 20 boxer in the devision, could have knocked out McGregor in the 1st round.

McGregor is not in Mayweather's class as an athlete. Compared to specialists, McGregor is probably a 3 in wrestling and a 5 in boxing, while Mayweather is one of the best ever in boxing.

baller in the house wrote:

Coconino Cowboy wrote:

No way. Jim is the best athlete of his generation, Rupp is a one event wonder. I'm outraged you even put the Nike athlete in the same conversation as the great Jim Walmsley.

He has olympic medals in 10k and marathon, right?

What am I missing?

Four years difference between Rupp's medals. Big Jim wins a 100 mile race one week, then almost goes sub-60 the next. Not to mention, holding a World record in the 50 mile and almost making the Olympics as a marathon runner. The man is an animal.

Coconino Cowboy wrote:

baller in the house wrote:

He has olympic medals in 10k and marathon, right?

What am I missing?

Four years difference between Rupp's medals. Big Jim wins a 100 mile race one week, then almost goes sub-60 the next. Not to mention, holding a World record in the 50 mile and almost making the Olympics as a marathon runner. The man is an animal.

He didn't almost break 60 and no, he didn't almost make the Olympic team. He also didn't set a WR at 50 miles. The fact that the Olympics are four years apart, makes the medals 4 times as special.

SDSU Aztec wrote:

Coconino Cowboy wrote:

Four years difference between Rupp's medals. Big Jim wins a 100 mile race one week, then almost goes sub-60 the next. Not to mention, holding a World record in the 50 mile and almost making the Olympics as a marathon runner. The man is an animal.

He didn't almost break 60 and no, he didn't almost make the Olympic team. He also didn't set a WR at 50 miles. The fact that the Olympics are four years apart, makes the medals 4 times as special.

If you want to deny the undeniable, that's your call. But it's obvious to everyone who's not a Hoka Hater, that Big Jim is arguably the greatest runner ever and undoubtedly the best athlete of this generation. We are all lucky to be witnesses to what he's accomplishing.

SDSU Aztec wrote:

He didn't almost break 60 and no, he didn't almost make the Olympic team. He also didn't set a WR at 50 miles. The fact that the Olympics are four years apart, makes the medals 4 times as special.

Never argue with Walmsley fanboys.

Probably not now. He said his ankle can barely handle the turns in the marathon after the surgery. No way he handles the trails.

Definitely lots of the competitive <27:30 guys could step up and win ultras with relative ease.

A couple of days ago someone posted a 25 minute interview with Rupp. He talks about trail racing and the possibility of doing it. What I took from it is that he likes running on trails, but says he has always had a problem rolling ankles so he doesn't really do it now, and not likely in the future.

Rupp (and many top marathoners) could have the 50k road WR right now. The 50 mile and 100k road records would probably be 6 months of specific training and they'd own those too.

But trails and 100 mile anything are different beasts. The hillier things are, the less likely I think pure road guys could handle it. Sure, if Rupp had trained since college to be world class Ultramarathoner, he would be. But he didn't, and Jim did.

Let's Talk wrote:

Jim Walmsley famously took a wrong turn at mile 97 of Western States and still finished the race. Rupp drops out of road marathons he's not doing well in. Pretty sure Jim's got Rupp spanked in the mental toughness department.

That's the wrong example to support your argument. Jim could have won that race despite the wrong turn. Instead, he just walked it in and got chicked in the process. Then the following year he went too hard, his stomach turned, and he dropped out sobbing like a child. Sage Canaday, who is nowhere near as fast as Jim, pucked his guts out the last 30 miles or so to finish 11th, iirc, beating Jim in the process (that was the year of Jim's wrong turn and subsequent walk till the finish line.

Jim has many strengths. Mental fortitude isn't one of them.

And yet he exceeds you in that department.

soccerxc wrote:

Think this is a lot like Mayweather v. McGregor. Two people at the top of two different disciplines. McGregor goes to the more refined boxing ring, puts up a good fight but loses. Walmsley hits the road marathon and loses by a few minutes. But if Mayweather hopped in the octagon, he’d be ripped to shreds by McGregor’s kicks, grabs, and ground game. Rupp wouldn’t know what to do with a race 4x the length, 1000s of feet of elevation, and varied terrain. Walmsley wins easily. Both runners are good in their own rights and would easily beat each other in their own events.

McGregor doesn't have ground game. And he didn't put up a good fight. Mayweather wasn't in shape, came out of retirement, and fought in a style that wasn't his own and wasn't so skilled on, because he knew McGregor was no threat. Also, the referee allowed McGregor way too many rabbit punches and antics. Connor looked lost in that ring.

Western States course is NOT Rupp Certified, so there is no point in discussing this.

No, Rupp is too fragile. His body seems on the limit of barely being able to handle marathon training. No way he could run 4 times as far on loose footing and climbing mountains and sh*t.

I know the common response in this thread is, "duh, yes," but I'm not sure it's that clear. Let's say Rupp has Walmsley by about 7% over the marathon distance (9-10 minutes). How long is that edge maintained? To 30 miles? Sure. 50? I'm less certain? 75? Far less certain.

How about with more than ten times the climbing? (in just its first 4 miles, Western States has almost twice Atlanta's climbing) And then 23,000 feet of descending?

I don't think it's at all clear that Rupp's running style and raw speed give him the edge at something like Western States, and this doesn't even get into issues like hydration, fueling, weather, terrain, and mentality.

It struck me watching the Trials on Saturday that Walmsley may not be built for pure, high-speed road racing, and I'm curious to see how that works out at Comrades (he's clearly no slouch, though, given his 50-mile record). When he was in the same TV shot with Lagat, it really emphasized that Walmsley's running style appeared far more vertical, and perhaps not as efficient as the road runners. But that style isn't too bad for flying over rocks, roots, and the other crap along the trail.

Interesting thought experiment, though.

Just based on how strong Rupp looked, I would say that Rupp, if adequately trained, would set a CR that was untouchable for decades. Not only did he run ridiculously fast on a difficult course in crappy conditions, he looked strong, composed, and in control the whole time. I think he is much stronger than people give him credit for. He'll never do it, but it would be incredible to see him train for and race a WS100.