Spot on
Spot on
Sbusiso wrote:
Spot on
Yes, this shows some great predictive qualities although the 3K is run far less than standard distances of 1500-5K which helps it's invicibility.
Even more interesting to me is that the thread from 2002, 18 years ago, is incredibly civil with a great deal of give & take of ideas. It doesn't seem laced with the levels of hostility and pompousness that so many current threads hold.
Opinionated guy wrote:
Sbusiso wrote:
Spot on
Yes, this shows some great predictive qualities although the 3K is run far less than standard distances of 1500-5K which helps it's invicibility.
Even more interesting to me is that the thread from 2002, 18 years ago, is incredibly civil with a great deal of give & take of ideas. It doesn't seem laced with the levels of hostility and pompousness that so many current threads hold.
Seemed like the interactions between randy and Sammy (as well as others) had quite a bit of that.
That said, I find it interesting the two records that were singled out in this thread were the 3k and the 200. The 3k still stands today, 18 years later. The 200 was broken only 7 years later by Usain Bolt. Just interesting how inhuman 19.32 seemed, because that's exactly how I personally feel about the Bolt records. Would be interesting to see someone run under 9.5 and 19.0x in the next few years, but that 7:20 to stand for another decade or more.
Beatles Revolver
Also crazy to see that people like Conversion King viewed a 2:02 marathon as inhuman as a 1:38 800m and now we have 2 athletes under that mark, yet no one has come even close to a 1:38 800m.
The 2-mile, 3000m, and 200m were one because of PEDs—and because of that, they can be broken with PEDs.
That is why I voted for 10.49 as the longest-standing record—because it was perfect conditions, PEDs, AND an error in wind measurement. The magnitude of the error is what is least likely to be replicated.
Zapotes wrote:
Also crazy to see that people like Conversion King viewed a 2:02 marathon as inhuman as a 1:38 800m and now we have 2 athletes under that mark, yet no one has come even close to a 1:38 800m.
Great catch! I kind of glazed right over that without it registering. Very interesting how those events have/have not evolved especially with many of the 800 key players having exceptional 200/400 speed compared to many of the 800/1500 types of the past.
Sprintgeezer, Also a great observation of the multiple factors that could figure into records. Like the altitude sprint records of the past. 10.49 having multiple factors versus 1 or 2 in other events definitely makes it stand out. Your analysis makes me look at records with a little more broad based scrutiny.
Opinionated guy wrote:
Zapotes wrote:
Also crazy to see that people like Conversion King viewed a 2:02 marathon as inhuman as a 1:38 800m and now we have 2 athletes under that mark, yet no one has come even close to a 1:38 800m.
Great catch! I kind of glazed right over that without it registering. Very interesting how those events have/have not evolved especially with many of the 800 key players having exceptional 200/400 speed compared to many of the 800/1500 types of the past.
Yeah, I wonder how he converted those times. You have to think he made his own conversion chart, but he also said that 26:22 was equal to those times. I wonder how he felt when 26:22 got broken just a couple years later, and then got down to 26:17. Given how long ago this was, I wonder if in the past 18 years some of these people stopped caring about the sport, or if some of them have died.
Before this page, all of the posts here were made before I was even born. It's insane to think how much has happened running wise since I started following it, much less since I was born. 26:22 was seen as absurd, 19.32 was seen as inhuman, 2:02 was a pipedream, and 7:20 was seen as the strongest record. Now in the past 18 years, all of those times have been smashed except 7:20. I wonder if there's anyone even capable of breaking that time now.
Cheptegai ran 4:01ish 1600s back to back to back in his 5k record, it doesn't seem like it would be too difficult for him to pull it down to 3:58s for over a mile less. Then again, Geb, Bekele, and El G all failed to even come within a few seconds of that time. I wonder if in 18 years, we'll be looking at a record set by him and think no one could ever break a time that he set.
Rocket Mann wrote:
Now in the past 18 years, all of those times have been smashed except 7:20. I wonder if there's anyone even capable of breaking that time now.
Cheptegai ran 4:01ish 1600s back to back to back in his 5k record, it doesn't seem like it would be too difficult for him to pull it down to 3:58s for over a mile less. Then again, Geb, Bekele, and El G all failed to even come within a few seconds of that time. I wonder if in 18 years, we'll be looking at a record set by him and think no one could ever break a time that he set.
The 3k might be a physiological outlier of sorts. I say this because Said Aouita, a 1:43/3:29/13:58/27:26 range guy and even an 8:21 sc, laughed at how soft Rono's 7:32 was. After 2-3 attempts in which he just missed it, he said "that is one tough record and FAR tougher than I imagined." He did get it with a 7:29. Then to think it has been lowered by 9 seconds then not touched for 24 years since shows just how tough the mark must be.
Cheptegei split two 61+, two 59+, and eight 60+ (give or take, some were the leaders splits). It sure seems like he could make a run at 7:20. Or if not him, someone with a little better 1500 marks, although we don't really know what Cheptegei can run for 1500.
I do believe the three you mentioned, Geb/ElG/Bekele could have broken it with the right conditions & race set-up........... but they didn't!
Secretariat's Belmont time.
Yeah the 3000m is something else, I agree with you - it's just a weird distance and weird distance to get right. But there is one thing in common with the two fastest athletes ever over the distance (by considerable margins - Komen 2.42 seconds faster than Hichem and Hichem1.93 seconds than a bunch of guys at 7.25 low including Geb, Morceli and Bekele, and that is blazing speed over a mile. Hichem of course was decent over the mile, but it's often overlooked that Komen ran 3.46.38 for the mile and is still the 8th fastest ever over the distance.
This is something that neither Bekele nor Geb really had (Geb 3.52 miler officially but probably a 3.50.0 runner with more cracks at it) and Kene probably the same.
I mean obviously Cheptegei is the only man alive right now that can even contemplate going for that mark. But I think I would need to see a mile time in the 3.47/48 range to give him any shot. I don't think he is even close to that level.
You know I disagree that Bekele, Geb had any chance for that record. They were simply not fast enough - perfect conditions or not. I mean they were way off that time from Komen. El G? - I mean he attempted it in arguably his best season when he set the mile and 2000m marks and tried it in Brussels with Brahim Lahlafi (a 7.28 runner!) pulling him past 2000m as fast as he could. I just don't see how El G runs much faster (maybe 0.5 seconds at best?) even with multiple tilts. Komens time is very special.
That being said there are still some things to remember with that performance. 1) it was set on the old Rieti track which many insiders thought was a legitimately dubious and 2) Komen was almost certainly using something - I know that Kim loved supercharging him on caffeine just as a first course - when you combine that with talent and the right conditions you end up with a time that may really stand a very long test of time.
how fast do you think shaunae can run the 400? the old 47.6 is 100% doped but she's way more talented than these old male women
Curious, I’ve never heard that piece about caffeine...do you have an article or something that talks about Komen’s use of it? It’s been well established that caffeine is a performance enhancer but I don’t recall ever reading this in reference to Komen.
Salvitore, That is some great insight.
I had no idea Komen was that fast over a mile. I thought he was a 3:52-3:53 guy. I also thought Geb broke 3:30 & 3:50 and even looked it up but you are right on. He did scare an indoor 1500 or mile mark didn't he? I agree with your thoughts on needing great mile speed, I was just confused on Komen & Geb's bests. I also had the image of Geb oukicking Komen a time or two but that was at the end of a 5k or 10k, a different animal. I threw Bekele in there because the previous poster named him and I just left it. It shows what a great record it is if we "couch experts" can easily throw consideration for Bekele aside. ElG seemed to have all the tools, possibly superior to Komen. But your final paragraph holds weight that once you are slicing hairs with such fantastic talents, there are many nuances that can influence results.
As far as Cheptegei, we really don't know his 1500 potential at this time and with those 5K splits, it appears he could be in the conversation if all other factors are on his side. Of course there have been several others over the past 24 years who seemed to have a shot on paper that did not even scare the record.
Yeah but that's an easy one to overlook because our memories of Geb were always as this maniacal kicker with insane leg turnover gears and our memories of Komen are of the long and languid stride with very little change in gears when he had to sprint. So the understandable assumption is that Geb would be faster over a mile - maybe even the same logic with Bekele.
Geb of course held the WR indoors over 1500m at one point - he ran 3.31.76 - so he probably was capable of running 3.49.xx outdoors - but this is still in a different ballpark to Komen who as I mentioned ran 3.46 low and was basically as good as Geb over 5000m (12.39.36 vs 12.39.74). I believe it's that difference in top end speed endurance 3.46 vs 3.49(?) that is your difference over 3000m. Throw in Hichem at 3.43.13 with 12.50 capacity and that spits him out at his 7.23.09, showing that mile ability is huge when it comes to the 3000m and I think more important than 5000m ability.
So back to Cheptegei who just seems to be more of a 5-10-HM guy rather than 3-5-10 guy. You'd have to think that he was capable of what 3.52/3 in the mile? Pair that up with 12.35 ability over 5000m and I think you are looking at something more in the 7.25.0 picture - in line with Geb, Morceli, Bekele etc who were slightly faster over the mile and slightly slower over the 5.
Once again, we just watched a dude smash the world 5 and 10 records and when we look at it holistically and apply some basic logics and assumptions, we see he's still probably waaaayyy off that 3000m mark which shows how superhuman that mark is. I think we have more chance of someone running sub 100 seconds in the 800m than we do of someone running under 7.20 in the 3000m - that's how tough that record is.
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