Ryan Schoppe runs 14:14.02 5K at the UIL XC State Championship US #2 all time

In a previous thread I posted to ignore the speed ratings on Schoppe and that I didn’t hesitate to say he was better boy nationally than Brynn was girl (this was pre-injury).

He won the dream mile last year which is no small feat and he is better with distance. 100% legit, In my books he is the favorite to win it all.

That is an incredible time if it is still the same old state course. Not an easy course. Normally a time around 15:10 wins the state meet though sometimes dipping below 15:00.

I agree that the speed ratings weren't doing him justice, but...

That Texas State course is not a full 5k. Schoppe is a Top-5 guy with a chance to win it all, but look at the times everyone was running... that's not even a fast 5k. It would probably measure out closer to a 3.05 mile course.

Kid was a phenom when young... same high school as Kerron Clement of 400m Hurdle/Olympic Gold fame. I think he ran 9:20 for 3200m as an 8th grader.

Sally Vix wrote:

That is an incredible time if it is still the same old state course. Not an easy course. Normally a time around 15:10 wins the state meet though sometimes dipping below 15:00.

There were 11 boys under 15 today.

4 runners sub-14:35, and 3 more under 14:50.

So that's... three runners today in three separate races under the old course record? a 14:34, 14:33, and 14:14 in 4A, 5A, and 6A?

ball out, Texas. we see you.

Oh? wrote:

Sally Vix wrote:

That is an incredible time if it is still the same old state course. Not an easy course. Normally a time around 15:10 wins the state meet though sometimes dipping below 15:00.

There were 11 boys under 15 today.

4 runners sub-14:35, and 3 more under 14:50.

There were 86 runners below 15:59. Southlake Carroll and the Woodlands each had all 7 runners in the 15:00s or faster. That course is definitely short.

Sally Vix wrote:

Oh? wrote:

There were 11 boys under 15 today.

4 runners sub-14:35, and 3 more under 14:50.

There were 86 runners below 15:59. Southlake Carroll and the Woodlands each had all 7 runners in the 15:00s or faster. That course is definitely short.

And that was only in 6A.

Anyone else noticed that El Paso Eastwood had a faster average and total time for the top 5 than Southlake Carroll and all those teams in the 6A race?

Were there any temperature differences between the boys 5A and 6A race?

I wouldn’t be surprised if Eastwood really ends up being the fastest boys team in Texas of 2019. They won NXR last year and barely graduated anyone. They just didn’t run their best at NXN. I think they’re hungry to get back there and finish a lot higher than last place.

SLC’s usual #1 runner Nate Lannen was 6th on the team and they still won 6A by quite a margin. Road to 10th straight NXN appearance, here they come!

Oh, and they return their first, second, and 4th state finishers next year. They always reload and have tons of JV guys that can fill in the shoes for those who are graduating.

Texas is so stacked this year teamwise on the boys side. If the team that finishes 3rd at NXR doesn’t get an at-large bid....

Which teams do you feel deserve an At-Large bid this year?

At Woodbridge, Southlake Carroll was demolished by the top 2 California teams (Newbury Park scored 38, Great Oak 68, and SLC was third with 234 - not that far ahead of Timpanogos UT at 269 and West Torrance CA at 272).

At Desert Twilight, The Woodlands squeaked past a trio of Colorado teams that probably won't finish in the Top-4 of the SW.

El Paso Eastwood was also at both of those races, and were well behind in both: 302 points at Woodbridge and 243 points at Desert Twilight (behind not only Niwot, Fort Collins and Air Academy from Colorado but also Highland AZ and Desert Vista AZ).

No girls teams in the South region deserve an at large-bid, but there are 3 Texas boys teams ranked in the top 16 on Milesplit. And none of those 3 are El Paso Eastwood.

La Costa Canyon got a second CA at-large bid last year by getting 4th in the merge for the CA state meet, but before state and NXN, they never beat any autoqualifiers or CA teams that finished ahead of them in the merge. But they did a good job validating that at-large pick at NXN itself by beating the best teams from some other regions and finishing in the top half.

Edina beat the NXR 2018 winner Mounds View twice last year (at State (when MV had the full lineup) and Milaca) before they got 3rd at NXR. But they didn’t get an at large bid.

So this shows that at-large picks might have been selected based more on the strength of the region than the resume from the regular season.

I agree that At-Large invites are based more on how well they run at their regional meet rather than how well they ran during the season. However, so far, the South teams haven't really showed they are among the best in the nation when they went up against teams from other regions, and that suggests that the South as a whole isn't that strong.

When it comes time to select teams, if (for example) El Paso Eastwood is the #3 team in the South and the Colorado trio of Niwot, Fort Collins and Air Academy all finish outside the SW Top-5, I don't think it's likely that the South gets a spot over the #3 and #4 teams from the Southwest even if there is a gap back from the #1 and #2 teams in that region... because the Southwest teams already showed during the season that they were better than the South teams. It would also be a hard sell if The Woodlands was the #3 team, as they weren't very far ahead of that trio and the Southwest #3/4 teams might very well win by a larger margin over those teams. And same for Southlake Carroll if the California state meet is closer than the landslide at Woodbridge.

In short, Texas has a trio of solid teams, but it wouldn't be out of the question or even unexpected if they didn't get any At-Large invites this year based on what we've seen to date. They would probably have to run undeniably better at NXR than the other #3/4 teams did, and it's pretty hard to be undeniably better than probable US Top-10/15 teams.

Here's the thing. SLC peaks really well. Go look at last year as well, it's the same thing.

Compare it to the start of the year. Flower Mound looked like the #1 team for the boys and girls (and they were beating SLC in races). Look what happened--- SLC came back around and flipped it on everyone.

I put in parenthesis, the runner's PRs.

5A Boys

1 Graydon Morris 14:33.43 (8:50 2-mile)

2 Michael Abeyta 14:34 (4:16/9:13 3200m)

3 Roger Rivera 14:55 (9:23 3200m)

4 Will Muirhead 14:59 (9:21 3200m)

6A Boys

1 Ryan Schoppe 14:14 (8:52 3200m)

2 Anthony Monte 14:39 (9:11 3200m)

3 Ryan Cardinal 14:45 (9:11 3200m)

4 Evan Caswell 14:48 (9:33 3200m)

5 Ethan Hammer 14:50 (9:13 3200m)

6 Gavin Saacke 14:57 (9:20 3200m)

7 Victor Neiva 15:04 (9:46 3200m)

8 Luke Lambert 15:05 (4:20/9:43)

9 Solomon Chavez 15:07 (4:42/9:57)

10 Nick Majerus 15:07 (9:15 3200m)

The race was definitely a lot quicker than normal, but you're fooling yourself if you don't think Ryan Schoppe is an elite runner. He's dominated every race this year, and has been keeping a low profile, but there is no doubt in my mind he could finish towards the top pack, assuming he doesn't bomb, at a national race.

Heracles wrote:

I put in parenthesis, the runner's PRs.

5A Boys

1 Graydon Morris 14:33.43 (8:50 2-mile)

2 Michael Abeyta 14:34 (4:16/9:13 3200m)

3 Roger Rivera 14:55 (9:23 3200m)

4 Will Muirhead 14:59 (9:21 3200m)

6A Boys

1 Ryan Schoppe 14:14 (8:52 3200m)

2 Anthony Monte 14:39 (9:11 3200m)

3 Ryan Cardinal 14:45 (9:11 3200m)

4 Evan Caswell 14:48 (9:33 3200m)

5 Ethan Hammer 14:50 (9:13 3200m)

6 Gavin Saacke 14:57 (9:20 3200m)

7 Victor Neiva 15:04 (9:46 3200m)

8 Luke Lambert 15:05 (4:20/9:43)

9 Solomon Chavez 15:07 (4:42/9:57)

10 Nick Majerus 15:07 (9:15 3200m)

The race was definitely a lot quicker than normal, but you're fooling yourself if you don't think Ryan Schoppe is an elite runner. He's dominated every race this year, and has been keeping a low profile, but there is no doubt in my mind he could finish towards the top pack, assuming he doesn't bomb, at a national race.

Also, too add, I think there was a lot of depth this year, that helped with the times. Individually speaking, there's certainly a lot more quicker returning runners in Texas.

And also: I still think Brynn Brown was just as good as Ryan was, had she not gotten injured.

And people using the Woodbridge results, while I don't think SLC would beat those top two teams, I definitely think they would run better. It's no common surprise that SLC peaks well.

Plus, go look at the results from that meet vs. the more recent meets. If you use states, notice the gap between runners that raced @ Woodbridge vs. their state meet performance. For example, notice where Solomon Chavez was for SLC, and compare how close he was to someone like, Anthony Monte who finished 3rd at Woodbridge.

And he's not SLC's #1. Nate had an off day at state.

Flower Mound was missing their regular #5 guy at regions and state. The Woodlands and SLC put all 7 in front of Flower Mound’s today’s #5

I don't think anyone is questioning whether or not Ryan Schoppe is an elite runner. He along with guys including but not necessarily limited to Nico Young, Leo Daschbach, Cole Sprout, Evan Holland, Josh Methner and Graydon Morris are fantastic runners. We saw that last year in XC (Sprout was NXN #3, Young was NXN #4, Morris was FLN#3, Methner was NXN#15 and FLN#6, Holland was NXN#16), and also in the spring (Sprout ran 8:40 and 4:04y, Young ran 8:40, Daschbach ran 8:51 and 4:03y, Holland ran 8:50y, Morris ran 8:50y), etc. etc.

I also don't think anyone is questioning whether teams improve during the course of the year either.

However, I think people are trying to put into better perspective the performances of today. Texas has some good individuals and good teams, but not necessarily multiples of either that are among the top 10 in the nation. The three teams averaging around 15:20 today in Texas might not average 15:35 or even 15:40 on other state courses, and to suggest that it would be ridiculous for the South not to get an At-Large bid on the boys side this year is selling short all of the other regions that also have as good or even better top teams.

Yes it was a fast course today which can be attributed to the weather and being at least 0.05 short.

In regards to how the girls will pan out at NXR I predict Southlake and Boerne Champion qualifying for NXN. Look for Prosper and Kingwood to challenge if the others have a bad day.

Boys should be Southlake and Woodlands. Maybe EP Eastland if someone has a bad day but I’ve heard they probably peaked too early.

It was a normal 5k course, multiple people wore their watches and got 3.09-3.1