They lost their big 3...basically their entire core for the previous 3 years. Also, Shumway their other XC all-American has been injured for months and won't likely be a factor this year. Carney(13:39 guy) is obviously not fit. He would have been top 5 last year on a bad day at this race...came in line 30th.
Basically they have Mantz, then a HUGE talent gap, then like 10 guys that could all land between 50-100 at nationals depending on the day. That definitely won't get then anywhere near a title. But they will easily be a top 10 team. They were ranked #2 purely off of their last 2 seasons success.
They get Clinger back next year. With Mantz, Clinger and a healthy Shumway they could be really good.