Marathon Pace...so confused

Icouldbeyourmom wrote:

I am running my first marathon very soon and at the end of training I’m still clueless on marathon pace. My general everyday run is around 8:30-8:45 pace and this feels relaxed, breathing calmly through nose, heart rate is aerobic (150ish). My tempo pace (LT) is around 7:10 for a 20 min run and 7:15-7:20 for a 40 min. Heart rate around 165 for that. I feel like marathon pace is obviously somewhere in the grey area between those two paces but I don’t know where.

You ran a ~1:40 half before this cycle, this is your first marathon, you've increased your mileage in concert with the step up in distance... OK. The people saying 7:50 are a little bit overheated. Your recent background would seem to suggest 3:35 to 3:45 for you...stretching to 3:30 if your body has really taken to this cycle. I would follow what your mind and body seem to be telling you. And I'd suggest running by feel on marathon morning, with the knowledge of where you should be as a result of your training. So that may be 7:55-ish to 8:30-ish...whatever. Trust your training, trust your body, and be willing to work/suffer more than you have in training. At least that's how I approach it.

Just be sure to be careful of all the clowns that show up at marathons these days. You'll be surrounded by clowns. I mean, big floppy shoes, red wigs, scary make up, baggy pants, and red noses. The whole bit. They're everywhere. Mentally block them out.

Icouldbeyourmom wrote:

I was asking for the race itself.

I should add I’ve done two 20 mile runs during peak weeks. One at 8:25 pace felt great (good weather). The second at 9 pace felt horrible (very hot day).

I also ran a few 16-17 miler at 8:30 pace, all fine, and my best longer run was 15 miles at 8:15, which felt surprisingly good.

My best medium long run was 11 miles at 7:50 pace and that bad boy was hard work.

I'm training for about 3:06. 20m at about 8m/m is my long run pace.

Surprised that you find 7:50 MLR pace hard, but that's a really useful guide for you and there's no way I'd be heading for MP at a pace I found hard over an 11 mile run, unless there were other factors that day.

Have you tried any long runs with faster pace in them? Maybe 13m with 8 at planned marathon pace to the end for example? Head out at 8:30s, then drop to 8min/mile as an experiment to see how well you can hold that for the final 8 miles?

Definitely err on the side of caution though if you think you might get caught up in going too fast. Enjoy the run, finish thinking you could have given a little bit more and you'll have a better experience, and be able to come back faster in the future.

I’ve done a handful of 10-12 mile runs with 5 miles easy, 5 miles fast (7:15-7:30 pace), then 2 mile easy. These tended to average out to 8:05-8:10 pace overall and they were solid workouts but I wasn’t trashed from them:

For my age, BQ is 3:35. That would be awesome to do. Otherwise I don’t really care if I run a 3:38 vs a 3:50. So part of me says if it’s a cool day and I feel fresh, try to hold an 8:10 pace the first 20 and see if I can hang on, and if not, it will be a painfull walk/shuffle in to a 3:55 marathon vs. me going out at an 8:30 pace and maybe have a more pleasant finish in the 3:40s

Running Chicago? Your race day pace is going to be a little bit dependent on the weather.

Put me down for 8:00-8:10, although I'd probably start closer to 8:20-8:30 and see how you feel through the first few miles. I'd take this one a little conservatively considering it's your first.

Yes, Chicago, and if it’s hot or humid I will not go out faster than 8:30 for sure

Which corral? Looks like D has a 3:30 pace group.

I've found Chicago to be one of the easiest marathons to go out too fast in. There's a ton of spectators, GPS doesn't work well in the Loop, and it's hard to gauge effort because of the spectators and adrenaline.

I think I’m in D or C...need to check again. I know it’s in the first wave.

There are some very optimistic people on here. I'd listen to the more cautious posters who are referring to your relative low mileage and the fact that it is your first marathon.

I can only tell you my experience from my one marathon.

It was at Erie. Very flat. weather was fair. 50s to 60s. really only dealt with sun on last 6 miles, which SUCKED. conditions could have been better, but not complaining. People run FAST there.

At the time, I was a 20 flat 5k guy. I time trialed a 1:32.. half marathon, and a 33:30ish 5 mile. I averaged in low 50s, for the marathon training cycle, and had run an average of 1500 miles per year for 3 years leading up to it.

I ran 3:23. And it was hard. I thought I was fit enough to do better, but I set out to do 7:45 pace, in an effort to be conservative for my first one. Never got faster than that, though I did manage to hold it the entire way.

Breathing was never an issue. The body just didn't want to work anymore. I wanted to stop and walk the entire last 6 miles, but never did. Held pace, as miserable as it was.

Anyway, that's just my experience from when i was in similar shoes as yours. Good luck. Don't get crazy. Hopefully this is the first of many.

Some people spend way too much time looking at vdot tables, mcmillans predictors, etc. It usually does not work that way in the real world. Most people have to train several years and a run a handful of races to approach ideal times in the marathon.

Icouldbeyourmom wrote:

I think I’m in D or C...need to check again. I know it’s in the first wave.

You should really consider at least starting with a pace group...if you're in D there's a 3:35 group(s) in that corral. As another poster said, the first few miles are exciting with all the spectators (which might make you speed up), GPS often doesn't work, and there can be congestion (which you may find tempting to weave through). Starting with a pace group you'll have an experienced runner who should do a good job of holding the pace through the early parts.

Honestly I don’t run the first HM at your current easy pace and then take it from there.

First marathon + low mileage basically means doing it that way is the only way you won’t blow up.

Yeah I may do a pace group. I’ll try to remember to update this thread after the race with what pace I went out at and what I finished at, and how good or bad it felt

It’s an experiment for me too. I’ve only run a few half marathons, but my experience was they were relatively easy compared to 10k and 5k races. They felt like tempo runs with a 2 hard miles at the finish. And during training for those I think the longest I held my eventual half race pace on a training run was maybe 5 miles. And that was probably half pace plus 5-10 seconds on those

details details details wrote:

There are some very optimistic people on here. I'd listen to the more cautious posters who are referring to your relative low mileage and the fact that it is your first marathon.

I can only tell you my experience from my one marathon.

Being one of those 'very optimistic', I suppose I could disclaim that I did my first 42.5 yrs ago, ran first sub three 41.5 yrs ago, and still capable of sub 3:15, and coached countless of runners achieving their goals.

However, everyone is entitled to an 'opinion', the race could go belly up for the OP and you would be right...this is not a science experiment after all.

Please remember to let us know how it went. These discussions are fun and helpful for all of us trying to be be competitive within our age/life/genetics limitations.

There's something to learn from every marathon effort and I think we need more AMATUER post-race dialogue.

Icouldbeyourmom wrote:

For my age, BQ is 3:35. That would be awesome to do. Otherwise I don’t really care if I run a 3:38 vs a 3:50. So part of me says if it’s a cool day and I feel fresh, ...

If you really don’t care about that difference, I’d say definitely go out with the 3:35 pace group if weather is good. You may even find that you can run 8:00 in the last 10 miles.

Remember that your legs will almost certainly feel like they’re losing steam at some point in the last 10k. If you expect it, you can deal with it. Just plan to hold pace for another half mile, then another, .... there’s a good chance you’ll get through it, especially if you’ve been hanging with a group. If you really end up fading or hitting the wall, though, there won’t be any doubt.

Make sure you have a good fueling plan.

Yeah, don’t discount the respect you need for the marathon or for it being your first, but also don’t discount the benefit of a taper.

And if it winds up not being your day, I think a fade to 3:40 or so would be more likely than a >3:50 implosion.

And yes, you get it completely: hot weather = slow.

Adding more data for those interested, raced a tune up 5k in 21:20 in 15 mph headwinds for the first 2 miles. Was not tapered, had a 9 mile track workout 3 days prior to race and ran 20 miles 6 days ago. Felt better aerobically during this 5k than any 5k I’ve ever ran.