I've shaved 2 hours off my marathon time so far. How low can I possibly go?

I ran a 1:41 half on a training run last week at slow-ish pace so I feel good about breaking my 1:39 pr. I am shooting for 3:20 now. Did 11 yesterday at just over 8:10 pace, and it was 90'F out, but felt strong at the end.

Can't wait for 50'F weather to test if my fitness gains will work.

If you lose 20 pounds in the course of 110-120 mile weeks while running two hard workouts of at least 4 or 5 miles, a tempo and 800-2k repeats, and a long run with increasing marathon pace at the back end of it, leading up to the last 13M of a 21+ miler, you are going to find yourself in the 2:40s at least, maybe the mid 2:30s. My best marathon was at 45, but I dropped to 2:38 only from a first marathon of 2:46 at age 37 after a long injury hiatus, so there was never the enormous drops you made. You have time and one key element is going to be getting faster, longer workouts (developed progressively) with better training partners.

A lot will depend on injuries. After 40 I started to get hurt when I did intensive training. They weren't serious injuries but it took time away from training.

I am similar (a little older, a little faster). I would suggest: run less, eat less.

A healthy 42-year-old doesn't need to be running 80+ mpw to break 3 hours. Average 55 mpw, plateau for a few weeks at 65 mpw, with good long runs and lots of miles in the 6:30 min/mile range. You're spending a lot of hours running every week - no doubt very thoughtfully. I think resting/recovering thoughtfully and shedding a few pounds is the key.

Congrats on reclaiming your fitness and the progress you've made over the years while leading what I assume would be a "normal" life and a career.

I have coached many runners slow and fast. I would say the biggest "simple" difference from being a decent runner/marathoner has been addition of marathon paced runs and tempo-long-tempo runs into the program. My experience has seen runners mostly doing basic tempo runs and then trying to progress their easy/long run distance as they approach the marathon. That'll get you to the finish and you can run a solid time doing that but it really doesn't "prepare" you for what the marathon is.

You are doing plenty of miles for a 3:02 marathoner. I had a runner qualify for the Olympics on 70 mpw (one day off) and run 2:31. The difference for her was marathon pace and tempo-long-tempo. We used Daniels formula as our guide and we both learned a lot about how to apply the program and modify for our situation.

One thing we found was when we did the long part of the T-L-T run was that we came out of the first tempos a bit reved up and ran the EZ long portion of 8-10 miles too fast even though it felt "easy" after finishing faster tempo. When we got to the final tempo we could not finish the workout which is exactly how marathons usually go when you run too fast in the middle.

The ensuing times we were careful to run easier in the middle so we could complete the final tempo properly. This workout teaches you to run strong at the end when you are tired. And trust me you will be tired when you get to the final tempo. But when you finish you will know that you accomplished a great workout. Much more useful than another long run.

Good luck with the journey and at your age you should have a lot of PRs left in you.

Les wrote:

If you lose 15 lbs. you'll be under 3 hours easily. Eat healthy but not excessively. Minimize drinking, especially beer.

This. Even 8lb would be enough.

Your results before 2016 are not worth analyzing as they were too far away in the past. Looking at your recent progression and mileage however it seems you're getting close to limits with your current weight, training and mileage combination.

To estimate your true physical limits we would need to know your training obviously. But surely you can drop well below 3:00 hours just by losing 15-20 lbs.

I would say that BMI of around 20.0 with high quality workouts for several years consistently is what tells you're close to limits.

For me mileage of 80-85 mpw would be good enough to go 2:30 in a year but I'm doing 2-3 high quality workouts per week consistently. Anyway drop some weight, back up from mileage a bit on focus on quality.