ObservingObserver wrote:
Vanderkooi "only" ran 18:11 to win her division race by over 70 seconds. On the same course and on the same day Dudek ran 17:00... those course conditions were brutal with the wind and mud and she almost ran a course record.
Vanderkooi ran 17:02 at portage earlier this season and last year finished 3rd at Footlocker, ran sub 17 three times and threw down a 10:04 for 3200m indoors (Dudek was also in the race and ran 10:07). Dudek has obviously improved massively since.... something seems off about that speed rating.
Well, I remain convinced that in any single race there is a little uncertainty in these things. By the numbers, the course ran a touch faster than last year (15:13 last year was 193, while this year 15:01 was 194). To me, these are one and the same speed. Whether this agrees with the course conditions, I have no idea. Another point of reference, last year Vanderlende ran 17:08 for a 155 winning by 50 seconds, and ended up with 151/149 at the two National meets.
If you were to increase the girls ratings by 5 (Dudek to 160), in all likelihood you would have to increase the boys winner (and all boys by 5) to 199ish which would put Carter Solomon basically right there with Sprout/Young/ Daschback type speeds.
Recall also the ratings are basically set by how the bulk of the middle of the pack does, not the top 10 or bottom 10 for that matter.
Maybe Carter Solomon will end up right there with the fastest when all is said and done and we can look back at this. 155 for Dudek, very close to her highest while winning by 1 minute is pretty good in any case. She is clearly among the very fastest this year.
But I too, am just an observer.