Amateur runner wrote:
Hi, I have recently run a sub 2:50 over the marathon after following the Pfitz 18 weeks maximum 88km weekly mileage training. Earlier to that I was running in 50-60km/week range. What are my chances to go sub 2:20/OTQ by 2024 start, and who should I progress. I am 25 years old right now, with PB of 4:32 in 1500m and 17:30 in 5000m.
I think it's a pretty big ask to hit that time in 5 years. It would probably be more realistic to do this by 2028. It's hard to look at a goal that will take 8 years to achieve, but this is a big goal and it will likely take you 2-3 years to build to and get comfortable at 100-120 miles per week and then another 4-5 years of running that kind of mileage before you will dip under 2:19. I've seen other guys do this on a similar 8ish year progression (and around the same age as you), I've never seen anyone do it in half the time (assuming they are starting where you are, very talented guys will hit this time very quickly).
For comparison sake, a training partner of mine has a decent shot of hitting this time sometime this year and this has been his progression:
2008: 1:17:high half (probably pretty similar to what you could hit right now)
2011: 1:08:high/2:37 (not sure why this was so weak compared to the half)
2013: 10 miles in 51:35
2015: 10 miles in 50:56
2018: 1:06/2:25 (on 2:19 pace through 22 miles and blew up)
Same boat as OP but a little faster like the other person that chimed in (1:15 half). I'm not going to kid myself but I train hard and put in the miles. I'd like to find whatever my full potential and once you're more than 20:00 under your BQ time there really isn't much else to aim for. I'd like to run sub-2:30 within the next 3-5 years. I didn't come to running with a track background so maybe it's wise to focus on the shorter stuff? I've always written off having a slower 5k to being an endurance runner but maybe the trick to getting better is spending some time working on my speed.
What do folks think? In the spirit of this thread -- not trashing on OP & others working towards their goals -- what would be the right move now to try to bring the marathon down? At some point long tempos will stop working when your top end speed doesn't get any faster. I feel like if I don't improve at the mile/3k/5k then my ceiling for the marathon doesn't really move much. I'm also getting older (27) and you usually see people move away from the shorter stuff by then or around then but when I started running I just started running slow + long & eventually that got me somewhat fast but nowhere near OTQ level.
"I drove my Honda Civic down the highway at 87 miles an hour - what are the chances of me qualifying for the Indy 500?"
I'm gonna bookmark this thread and keep it updated with my progress. Official OTQ-aspiring hobbyjoggers thread. Wooo go us!