ATTENTION 2:14–2:20 AMERICAN MARATHONERS

GBohannon wrote:

Brutally Honest Bob wrote:

If your ceiling is 2:14 you will never be a professional marathoner. You are often misled because you may occasionally beat guys that are making a living off of the sport. For example a 27:50 guy debuts at 2:16. This guy is a pro because of his potential. He has the chance to be a 2:10 guy and that is what a shoe company is willing to pay for.

What are you going to tell us next?.....

That you are just another hobby jogger.

If you run 2:18 and are from a little European country, they will give you more time on camera than the leaders of their national marathon. That would happen in the US too if not for Galen Rupp, whose era is ending.

Banana Bread wrote:

If your a 2:14 guy you can literally have a good battle with Dennis Kimetto and beat him to the line. I wonder what age Bekele will be before he is a 2:14 guy. Probably when he is 50 he will be able to run that time still.

Literally? I was thinking a figurative battle with Dennis but I’m glad you cleared that up.

Keep your eyes open and make sure you don’t change the argument.

Only talking about 2:14 guys that are not capable of faster.

If you have never broken 28:30 or 62 minutes or 2:14 you have no chance to ever be a factor.

Sorry for the brutal truth.

Brutally Honest Bob wrote:

Keep your eyes open and make sure you don’t change the argument.

Only talking about 2:14 guys that are not capable of faster.

If you have never broken 28:30 or 62 minutes or 2:14 you have no chance to ever be a factor.

Sorry for the brutal truth.

Mercier Scoring Tables put into the perspective that is hated by the men who think they are better than they are.

2:14:00 male is equal to 2:35:49 female

I don't like the way this thread was presented, necessarily, but the principle is sort of interesting. I know a number of runners who started at (for example) 2:35 and progressed down to 2:17-2:19, and say 'if hard work got met this far, who knows how far I can get?'

It doesn't seem to work that way. If you weren't a top-5 runner at your respective meet in high-school and/or a multi-time All-American in college, it's damn near impossible you'll be an elite or professional runner. We could basically make that call at age 18. Doesn't mean running can't be fun, or competitive, or what - but really, the runners like Rupp, Derrick, Chelimo, even someone on the fringe like Droddy - we've known all along they're at that level.

GR wrote:

You do realize that 2:14 would have placed you in the Top 15 at the last two Olympics, right?

If you're 2:14, depending on your country, you are world class.

Keep it up, guys.

Were any of these in good conditions?

Bayesian wrote:

GR wrote:

You do realize that 2:14 would have placed you in the Top 15 at the last two Olympics, right?

If you're 2:14, depending on your country, you are world class.

Keep it up, guys.

Were any of these in good conditions?

Plus these were not 2:14 marathoners. They were 2:10 or better marathoners that ran 2;14 on that day.

Bill Rodgers best prior to running 2:09 was 2:19. He then reguarly ran 2:09-11.

So keep after the dream brothers! Don’t let negativity stop you from achieving your dreams!

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Rodgers_(runner)

Garmin_Guy wrote:

I don't like the way this thread was presented, necessarily, but the principle is sort of interesting. I know a number of runners who started at (for example) 2:35 and progressed down to 2:17-2:19, and say 'if hard work got met this far, who knows how far I can get?'

It doesn't seem to work that way. If you weren't a top-5 runner at your respective meet in high-school and/or a multi-time All-American in college, it's damn near impossible you'll be an elite or professional runner. We could basically make that call at age 18. Doesn't mean running can't be fun, or competitive, or what - but really, the runners like Rupp, Derrick, Chelimo, even someone on the fringe like Droddy - we've known all along they're at that level.

Bill Rodgers best mile was 4:27 in high school

I know Bill Rodgers and you my friend are no Bill Rodgers.

Brutally Honest Bob wrote:

If your ceiling is 2:14 you will never be a professional marathoner. You are often misled because you may occasionally beat guys that are making a living off of the sport. For example a 27:50 guy debuts at 2:16. This guy is a pro because of his potential. He has the chance to be a 2:10 guy and that is what a shoe company is willing to pay for.

And you know this exactly how??

Ian Thompson, Ron Hill, Derek Clayton, and Dick Beardsley all ran under 2:10 for the marathon and never ran under 28:30 for the 10,000.

GR wrote:

Will take it one step further -

2016 Rio - 17th Place was 2:14:11

2012 London - 15th Place was 2:14:09

2008 Beijing - 16th Place was 2:14:00

2004 Athens - 8th Place was 2:14:17

2000 Sydney - 8th Place was 2:14:04

1996 Atlanta - 6th Place was 2:14:29

1992 Barcelona - Bronze Medal was 2:14:00

1988 Seoul - 12th Place was 2:14:08

1984 Los Angeles - 13th Place was 2:14:00

Skeptical of this data. It seems you only selected olympics every 4 years. Makes me wonder what you're hiding.

Garmin_Guy wrote:

I don't like the way this thread was presented, necessarily, but the principle is sort of interesting. I know a number of runners who started at (for example) 2:35 and progressed down to 2:17-2:19, and say 'if hard work got met this far, who knows how far I can get?'

It doesn't seem to work that way. If you weren't a top-5 runner at your respective meet in high-school and/or a multi-time All-American in college, it's damn near impossible you'll be an elite or professional runner. We could basically make that call at age 18. Doesn't mean running can't be fun, or competitive, or what - but really, the runners like Rupp, Derrick, Chelimo, even someone on the fringe like Droddy - we've known all along they're at that level.

Excellent post. I didn't like the tone off the OP either, but the "if hard work got me this far..." trap is one I fell into for a few years post-college. I believed that all the years I spent training hard and doing high mileage would eventually metamorphose me into a world-class athlete, yet ultimately my ceiling was only 1:09/2:24.

With hindsight and experience I now realize I was delusional, but it doesn't seem that way when you're in the chase and making progress. Until that progress grinds to a halt...

I see numerous threads here where some high school freshman or sophomore with pedestrian times asks if he'll be capable of a 4:10 or so mile by senior year. Um...no. But I won't be stomping on anyone's dreams. They need to figure that out for themselves. Except for a handful of outliers like Big Rodgers, talent will out early on, and athletes who get to the pro level will not just win at every level, they will dominate.

And you know this exactly how?

The fact is all of the nah sayers have no idea what will happen in the future for anyone... plenty of exceptions on both sides of your premise.

Skeptic tank wrote:

GR wrote:

Will take it one step further -

2016 Rio - 17th Place was 2:14:11

2012 London - 15th Place was 2:14:09

2008 Beijing - 16th Place was 2:14:00

2004 Athens - 8th Place was 2:14:17

2000 Sydney - 8th Place was 2:14:04

1996 Atlanta - 6th Place was 2:14:29

1992 Barcelona - Bronze Medal was 2:14:00

1988 Seoul - 12th Place was 2:14:08

1984 Los Angeles - 13th Place was 2:14:00

Skeptical of this data. It seems you only selected olympics every 4 years. Makes me wonder what you're hiding.

10/10

lol

GR wrote:

Will take it one step further -

2016 Rio - 17th Place was 2:14:11

2012 London - 15th Place was 2:14:09

2008 Beijing - 16th Place was 2:14:00

2004 Athens - 8th Place was 2:14:17

2000 Sydney - 8th Place was 2:14:04

1996 Atlanta - 6th Place was 2:14:29

1992 Barcelona - Bronze Medal was 2:14:00

1988 Seoul - 12th Place was 2:14:08

1984 Los Angeles - 13th Place was 2:14:00

race in barcelona if you run 214 obviously,

2018 boston, 214 flat gets you the win by nearly half a mile.