Kipsang is done. Bekele has been done long time. Full stop.

This isn't exactly news is it? Both of these runners are getting older and probably have just a few good races left in them.

I'm okay with Kipsang. He's obviously closing in on retirement but 3rd in 2:06 at Berlin after going out in 1:02 is fine. He ran 30k last fall at world record pace and then finished 2nd at NYC where it's all about place. That 2nd was to Kam who is one of the best runners on the planet not named Kipchoge.

Bekele is a boom or bust marathoner. He'll either run 2:03-05 in Amsterdam or DNF.

It would be great if the US had two guys who could touch what they're doing at the end of their careers. Only on LRC are we saying full stop to a 2:06 runner.

FFF wrote:

Stop it with the Bekele talk. He's not running 2:01 or 2:00 something. If he even finishes, it might be a 2:06, which is pretty bad these days, you know.

And Kipsang isn't EK either. He's had a marathoner career. It's over.

(And Mutai's 2:05 at NYC is still the mark, and you know it.)

do you honestly believe Mutai's NYC mark is better than what Kipchoge just ran in Berlin?

End of an Era wrote:

FFF wrote:

It's over.

+1

They're both dinosaurs of the sport trying desperately to catch their last appearance fees.

You obviously means Farah and Rupp.

round and round wrote:

FFF wrote:

Stop it with the Bekele talk. He's not running 2:01 or 2:00 something. If he even finishes, it might be a 2:06, which is pretty bad these days, you know.

And Kipsang isn't EK either. He's had a marathoner career. It's over.

(And Mutai's 2:05 at NYC is still the mark, and you know it.)

do you honestly believe Mutai's NYC mark is better than what Kipchoge just ran in Berlin?

That wasn't me, but interestingly I don't think Berlin Kipchoge would've beaten Mutai at NYC, nor do I think NYC Mutai would've beaten Kipchoge at Berlin.

norbert wrote:

round and round wrote:

do you honestly believe Mutai's NYC mark is better than what Kipchoge just ran in Berlin?

That wasn't me, but interestingly I don't think Berlin Kipchoge would've beaten Mutai at NYC, nor do I think NYC Mutai would've beaten Kipchoge at Berlin.

Until Sunday, the real world mark (to me) was Mutai 2:05 at NYC. That mark was just over 2 minutes slower than Dennis at Berlin, and those two courses are hardly similar.

The current 2:01.39/40 might be a touch faster than the NYC record, MIGHT.

The problem now is, though, nobody is going to run anywhere near today's fastest times on courses that don't already have today's fastest times. NYC is not going to see a 2:02 any time soon, and though Boston might see a 1:59 before anywhere else, it won't be any more legit than Monza.

The WR will be at Berlin, London, Dubai until something unforeseen changes, and that's too bad. NOT that the NYC course is so legit, but at least it's not a track race.

norbert wrote:

round and round wrote:

do you honestly believe Mutai's NYC mark is better than what Kipchoge just ran in Berlin?

That wasn't me, but interestingly I don't think Berlin Kipchoge would've beaten Mutai at NYC, nor do I think NYC Mutai would've beaten Kipchoge at Berlin.

That makes no sense at all. You're saying that neither effort was better than the other. I think you need to look at the math a little bit.

I don't think any marathoner at any point in their career could have come close to what Kipchoge did in Berlin a few days ago. Including Mutai in his New York race. The conditions in NYC were absolutely perfect, even Meb K had a PB after two 5:30 miles with some puking going on. Something special was going on with the perfect 40 degree windless weather (or a short course...)

Berlin 2018:

First 13.1 miles - 1:01:06

Last 13.1 miles - 1:00:33

avg 10k split - 28:49

avg pace - 4:38.4 / mile

NYC 2011: (read this for the details -

)

First 13.1 - 1:03:17

Last 13.1 - 1:01.48

best 10k split - 28:57

avg pace - 4:46.2 / mile

Mutai's last 10k in New York was 28:57. I know there are some hills in Central Park, but Kipchoge averaged 28:49 per 10k in Berlin. It's hard to argue that Kipchoge couldn't have gone out 2-minutes slower for the first half and then dropped a sub 28 10k to finish. I bet he could have run 2:03:50's in NYC that day with this year's Berlin fitness.

Mutai went out in 2:08 marathon pace in NYC that day. That's a jog for Kipchoge.

what other objective arguments are there?

I don't need to look at the math - I'm well aware of the splits from both races. I'm also not saying that neither effort was better than the other. I'm saying that Kipchoge, placed in the 2011 race that had no pacers and a slow start, would not have run away from Mutai on the rolling hills of Central Park at the end of the race.

OK. I genuinely appreciate you sharing your conviction on this one. Thank you. I do wish you'd go into some detail and not just make it a subjective statement. It just doesn't come off as logical.

Mutai Berlin - 2:04:15

Kipchoge Berlin - 2:01:39

Kipchoge has better track pb's than Mutai. Mutai has a better HM than Kipchoge, but it's probably fair to say EK hasn't gone for a big effort in the HM. Kipchoge's average marathon time for the last 11 marathons is better than Mutai's best if you throw out his Boston freak tailwind performance. Kipchoge has run Berlin faster than Mutai 4 times. His slowest marathon is 2:05:30, his first one. These aren't opinions.

No other athlete EVER has been able to run as fast for a marathon. Not even close, he broke the WR by 78 seconds. Mutai ran 2:03:02 with a tailwind that gave most athletes in the race that day a 1-2 minute boost to their best ever race. (Mosop ran 2:03:06 but never broke 2:05 otherwise, Ryan Hall etc...) Faor to say it was a bout a 2-minute advantage. Mutai's NYC race is by far his best ever and he had an amazing season in 2011, but doesn't translate to the fitness and mental toughness of a 2:01:39 in Berlin (that's 3.5 minutes faster than 2:05:05 !) from someone who hasn't lost a marathon in years and gets faster every year.

Kipchoge Marathons

2013 – 2:05:30 - win

2013 – 2:04:05 – 2nd place (berlin)

2014 – 2:05:00 - win

2014 – 2:04:11 - win

2015 – 2:04:42 - win

2015 – 2:04:00 – win (berlin)

2016 – 2:03:05 - win

2016 – 2:08:44 - win (Rio Oly, gold medal)

2017 – 2:03:32 – win (berlin)

2018 – 2:04:17 - win

2018 – 2:01:39 – win (berlin)

I hear you, but ...

Kipchoge Marathons

Hills - 0

Banana Bread wrote:

Bekele isn't done. Did you not see his most recent 10 miller in Bern where he destroyed the field? When he runs the course record in Amsterdam in a few weeks will you still be saying that. There will be a lot of crickets chirping after he destroys the field in Amsterdam to. I can't wait to come here and laugh.

Destroys the Amsterdam field running 2:06.

All of this is above post is some sort of career comparison or discussion about other races - why? Kipchoge has far and away had a better career than Mutai. You also seem to be forgetting that I said that NYC Mutai would not have beaten Kipchoge at Berlin.

Kasparov had a far better career than Fischer, but that doesn't mean he could've strolled into a game with Bobby's conditions in his prime and beaten him. You're confusing arguments with each other. Mutai ran 13:35 from 21-23 at New York and I don't think Kipchoge would've gone sooner or run away from Geoffrey.

Yeah, when it comes down to it I strongly disagree with you and am frustrated with your argument because i don't think they arr e same league to compare. Kipchoge career means a lot to this argument because he's a better, faster runner so running away from Mutai is, in fact, a possibility.

I simply do not think dropping three 4:31 miles after running that slow (relative to world-class marathon times/paces) is more impressive than running a 4:29 26th mile after 17 km's of running solo in a second half of 60:33 when he went out in 1:01:06. He was running 4:37 pace. Mutai was running like 4:50 when he dropped the hammer. It was easier for Centrowitz to run a 50.3 last lap in Rio because he went out slower. Was still impressive of course, but very different.

with Eliud Kipchoge's fitness and track career, I think he could have put 1 minute on Mutai in the last 10k of that NYC race if he could time travel back to 2011's race.

That Mutai performance was incredible, one of my favorites to watch. I'm not hating on him. Think about the Bekele 5k WR (12:37) He time-trialed that race but was also almost impossible to outkick in that era. Same thing with Kipchoge right now.

Lastly, like you said, Kipchoge has had a far better career but is ALSO a better talent than Mutai. Keep searching for Bobby Fischer.

Anyone else willing to chime in here?!

Stanley Biwott ran very fast toward the finish at NYC 2015. So what?

I'm not really in this debate, but Mutai's 2:05 came off a pedestrian start, one called a "jog" for EK. Right. So that means Mutai went pretty fast after that. You can break it down by K or mile split all you want. The NYC course is not Berlin, London, or Dubai. There's no way around that.

Someone on this thread said Sunday's EK time would have maybe been a 2:03.30 at NYC. So maybe Dennis' previous WR would have been a 2:05 at NYC. Right.

Rio went out even slower than NYC 2011 and yet Kipchoge didn't throw together 3 x 4:20 miles or anything close to that when he pulled away. Was it hot? Yes. Does New York have hills? Yes.

Haha, WTF. The hills in NYC aren't serious enough make a runner like Kipchoge less good than Mutai. The guy just ran 2:01:39! Mutai obviously had a strategy in mind and felt good so he went for it. Kipchoge had a strategy too and went for it and effing nailed it!

Rupp in his Chicago marathon victory:

He ran five straight sub-4:40 miles for miles 22 (4:39), 23 (4:35), 24 (4:30), 25 (4:34), and 26 (4:33) to decimate the five-man lead pack.

4:34 pace or 22:44 8k or 28:22 10,000m pace.

The final 5.2188 miles in an unofficial 24:02 – that’s 4:36.3 per mile, or 2:00:45 marathon pace.

Does this mean Ruppy is a better marathoner than Kipchoge or Mutai? No.

robot sandwiches wrote:

Haha, WTF. The hills in NYC aren't serious enough make a runner like Kipchoge less good than Mutai. The guy just ran 2:01:39! Mutai obviously had a strategy in mind and felt good so he went for it. Kipchoge had a strategy too and went for it and effing nailed it!

Rupp in his Chicago marathon victory:

He ran five straight sub-4:40 miles for miles 22 (4:39), 23 (4:35), 24 (4:30), 25 (4:34), and 26 (4:33) to decimate the five-man lead pack.

4:34 pace or 22:44 8k or 28:22 10,000m pace.

The final 5.2188 miles in an unofficial 24:02 – that’s 4:36.3 per mile, or 2:00:45 marathon pace.

Does this mean Ruppy is a better marathoner than Kipchoge or Mutai? No.

You replied to me but nowhere did I say that Kipchoge is "less good" than Mutai.

norbert wrote:

robot sandwiches wrote:

Haha, WTF. The hills in NYC aren't serious enough make a runner like Kipchoge less good than Mutai. The guy just ran 2:01:39! Mutai obviously had a strategy in mind and felt good so he went for it. Kipchoge had a strategy too and went for it and effing nailed it!

Rupp in his Chicago marathon victory:

He ran five straight sub-4:40 miles for miles 22 (4:39), 23 (4:35), 24 (4:30), 25 (4:34), and 26 (4:33) to decimate the five-man lead pack.

4:34 pace or 22:44 8k or 28:22 10,000m pace.

The final 5.2188 miles in an unofficial 24:02 – that’s 4:36.3 per mile, or 2:00:45 marathon pace.

Does this mean Ruppy is a better marathoner than Kipchoge or Mutai? No.

You replied to me but nowhere did I say that Kipchoge is "less good" than Mutai.

Norbs - You said 2011 Mutai would beat Kipchoge (in his 2018 Berlin form) in NYC, did you not?!

robot sandwiches wrote:

norbert wrote:

You replied to me but nowhere did I say that Kipchoge is "less good" than Mutai.

Norbs - You said 2011 Mutai would beat Kipchoge (in his 2018 Berlin form) in NYC, did you not?!

Yes. That doesn't mean I think Mutai is a better marathoner, though, which I believe is an important distinction.

norbert wrote:

robot sandwiches wrote:

Norbs - You said 2011 Mutai would beat Kipchoge (in his 2018 Berlin form) in NYC, did you not?!

Yes. That doesn't mean I think Mutai is a better marathoner, though, which I believe is an important distinction.

Anyone can pretty much beat anyone depending on the circumstances. So that's a blanket, meaningless statement for the sake of my original question.

I've been asking, "why (aside from some gut feeling) do you think 2011 NYC Mutai could beat 2018 Berlin Kipchoge?