UTMB Ultra Trail Mont-Blanc starts in 5 days & 3 hours- predictions etc

reed wrote:

..............

Personally I'd like to see Jim win so that in future years he can do some other big races, like Hardrock or Leadville. I know his plans include some road racing for next year so maybe Hardrock will have to wait.

I really want to see Jim get on the roads and take on Comrades. I think he is way better at 50mi - 100km races as opposed to 100mi.

If he could win UTMB after his WS and then lay down a time at Comrades he would be considered one of the best ever.

pnw_runner wrote:

Not Irunfar Media wrote:

Personally I'd like to see an American win this race finally...

Multiple Americans have won UTMB.

All of them female - guessing the poster is male and is referring to an American male.

Back to the main question - it's a hard call. Three guys coming in with big chips on their shoulders:

JW - did OK for a first-timer at UTMB last year despite tactical errors, but unfinished business. The WS win and course record is surely a huge confidence booster, the type of thing that should allow him to trust in himself. The course is generally favorable to his style up to Cool de Ferret and/or La Fouly, but then...

KJ - more unfinished business from last year. On fire of late, but was today's Kima a bridge too far? Hard to know, even harder is betting against him. The last 30ish miles in from La Fouly favor his style, and significant time can be made in the last 30 of a 100...

XT - perhaps the biggest chip on shoulder of all, and who can blame him after the Hardrock affair. Recovery time is the question. Top end seems slightly lower than the other two, but dangerous nonetheless. If anyone has this course wired it is he...

Prediction: weather could be the key. If it's generally decent I'll go with JW, if it's generally rough (like last year) I'll go with KJ. Hard to root against XT so if he crack those two all the power to him!

Zach Miller is the one I would watch other than Killian and Walmsley. Zach posted a picture of his face after he took a fall and split his lip. He looked much thinner than usual. It could have just been the pic, but that is usually a sign of great fitness. He did lead UTMB for 60 or 70 miles a few years ago and has a history of running great when he doesn't race too much.

this is going to be fun.......... wrote:

Zach Miller is the one I would watch other than Killian and Walmsley. Zach posted a picture of his face after he took a fall and split his lip. He looked much thinner than usual. It could have just been the pic, but that is usually a sign of great fitness. He did lead UTMB for 60 or 70 miles a few years ago and has a history of running great when he doesn't race too much.

Without going into the weeds with the topic..few interesting perspectives..

Well, it's a mountain race and Killian is running. So, take that for what it's worth. I love how post Western JW was pretty much off the map, deep in the San Juan's specifically training for UTMB. Last year, I thought his 5th place after 2 mishaps at Western was a career changing moment, hope he brings the magic again this weekend. Alex Nichols is a strong runner, and is very consistent, don't know enough about his current state to predict a placing. Same with Dylan Bowman, he knows this race very well and had a huge win at UTMF this past spring, how that plays to UTMB, not sure, but he'll always be in contention to for a solid performance without counting in any other factors. Zach Miller faired really well last year with a lack thereof traditional build up. He spent most of 2017 regaining strength after a back injury, and still placed 9th, that's pretty remarkable. Xavier def was caught up in a very weird situation but overall, we could argue he won HR by a considerable amount (and I am a HUGE Browning fan)..

Let's not forget, Avery Collins passed up an opportunity to run @ UTMB, a race that plays very well to his strengths to attempt to be the first American to win Tor Des Geants this year. Look for Collins to run UTMB in the near future, and be a big American name in the Euro races.

I think Dylan Bowman is doing the TDS race... Big fan of Zach but he hasn't mastered the longer, more competitive mountain races yet. I get the all or nothing approach and squeezing the juice, but he overdid it in his first UTMB, and did exactly the same at the world trail championships. Last year he was coming back from injury so did well to place top 10. He hasn't got Jim's leg speed or efficiency so i'm hoping he doesn't start off crazy. he's a work-horse, lives at altitude so should be ideally suited to this.

Jim Walmsley will be in the lead early and past the 60 mile mark he will blow up like a Dandelion.

Sorry I have no confidence in his abilities to run a solid 100 miler.

As with all race walking events, no matter who wins, they will still be a loser.

Runner 247 wrote:

Jim Walmsley will be in the lead early and past the 60 mile mark he will blow up like a Dandelion.

Sorry I have no confidence in his abilities to run a solid 100 miler.

Yeah, just like you predicted he would at Western States, right?

I would never run an ultra “just to finish”, let alone try to race one to win. Just seems like a lot of the kind of suffering I do not enjoy. Fueling, bathroom, running for longer than 3 hours... just not for me. It seems like there is just a lot of stuff you’d have to figure out to race well. Trial and error makes sense. It also seems like once you did figure out how to race a 100 miler and win, you could do it again.

I would still put my money on Killian probably, but I think Walmsley’s past mistakes, then 5th at UTMB and then recent win at WS point to a successful learning curve which improve his chances/odds of winning (rather than him going back to his past failures).

comedyrelief wrote:

As with all race walking events, no matter who wins, they will still be a loser.

+1

Surprised it took so long for someone to point out the obvious

Of course it was possible that Walmsley could win at WS 100. Training in Flagstaff is quite similar to the WS 100 course. And he got a lot of heat training in too.

But UMTB is different, less heat, maybe rain and no pacers. Which means Walmsley is on his own without his Cuku Cowboys.

He actually has to pull it of on it's own.

Can he win, maybe. But there is a lot of tough competition there. Which is different to WS100 where the competition is quite limited due to the lottery.

Not a Walmsley fan wrote:

Runner 247 wrote:

Jim Walmsley will be in the lead early and past the 60 mile mark he will blow up like a Dandelion.

Sorry I have no confidence in his abilities to run a solid 100 miler.

Yeah, just like you predicted he would at Western States, right?

Jim's piss poor 1 out of 6 record in major competition speaks for itself. He consistently cracks under pressure. His nerves will get to his stomach and head. Western States is very weakly competitive (everyone knew Francois can't run in the heat), and it took him 3 tries. He beat the record of a former drug addict.

hobby walkers wrote:

comedyrelief wrote:

As with all race walking events, no matter who wins, they will still be a loser.

+1

Surprised it took so long for someone to point out the obvious

The joke is more tiresome than... ...finishing a 100-miler.

While I'm just another face in the crowd, I did do UTMB several years ago. I did collegiate (D1) several decades ago. They're both legit, but I gotta say, UTMB was by far the coolest running event I've ever done. No words do it justice, I won't even try.

Avery isn't currently even close to the same league as Kilian, Xavier, and Jim.

not impressed. wrote:

Jim's piss poor 1 out of 6 record in major competition speaks for itself. He consistently cracks under pressure. His nerves will get to his stomach and head. Western States is very weakly competitive (everyone knew Francois can't run in the heat), and it took him 3 tries. He beat the record of a former drug addict.

Jim is not a 100 mile specialist. Yes I know he won WS100 in record time but this is a highly specialized event with a very limited amount of competitive runners. Jim is excellent at 50 miles but I would not bet on him when it comes to 100 mile races.

And I am glad you mentioned the Frenchman who can't train in that heat, so he obviously had a huge disadvantage but he was 2nd at the end. That is not too bad.

Where is François D'haene??

Looks like Jim Walms has finally cracked the code for the 100. Walms ftw

Misty Mountain Hop wrote:

hobby walkers wrote:

+1

Surprised it took so long for someone to point out the obvious

The joke is more tiresome than... ...finishing a 100-miler.

While I'm just another face in the crowd, I did do UTMB several years ago. I did collegiate (D1) several decades ago. They're both legit, but I gotta say, UTMB was by far the coolest running event I've ever done. No words do it justice, I won't even try.

No comment on this exercise in sleep deprivation, just wanted to say that I also ran D1 back in the day

pnw_runner wrote:

Not Irunfar Media wrote:

Personally I'd like to see an American win this race finally...

Multiple Americans have won UTMB.

Apologies to Rory Bosio, Krissy Moehl, and Nikki Kimball. I thought it was obvious I had been strictly discussing the mens side of the race.

I think for me the womens side isnt as stacked this year as it could be. Caroline chaverot and Clare gallagher are my picks!

Hey everyone, I started this general thread for MUT related stuff!

By all means, the more threads the better imo, just spreading the love!