Kilian going into this race just 5 days after setting a CR on an insane 50k course will be interesting for sure. His recovery is unprecedented but come on... I think he will be running UTMB slower than people might expect. Doubtful he'll be going for a CR this time around at UTMB. Kilian is smart and realizes this is a pretty stacked race and his best bet would be to "sit and kick"
Personally I'd like to see an American win this race finally, this year being possibly their best shot thus far. Jim is on a tear with huge training blocks (per usual) but he only stuck this 100 miler thing once really. Weather playing a large factor here, just like Boston and then UTMB last year. If there is intense heat rather than rain I'd almost bet my life on Jim getting the W.
Tim Tollefson has had a pretty good year up to date but he also has struggled with low iron and dietary mishaps. I know he posted some stuff about it online but may have deleted it since i wasn't able to locate it again.
I don't think Tim is totally up to par with previous performances, in '17 he ran a 5:23 @ speedgoat and this year he ran a 5:37 coming in 3rd behind Sage.
Zach Miller is a wild card as expected but he has been putting in more training this year. He recently said he was able to take more time off from his position at Barr Camp. While in previous years he worked there full time while training, he said this year he was only there part time. I could see this being a key factor in him finally cracking the (real) podium at UTMB.
Another often overlooked american is Alex Nichols having been 2nd at the '17 western states, a placement I feel was again overshadowed by an "unexpected" loss from JW. Alex has consistently been a top contender in any race he enters and has excelled at the 100 mile distance. (2016 win at run rabbit run as well). Coming off a supported FKT on Nolans 14 we will see how well he has recovered.
Xavier Thevenard is a top contender as well with two wins here under his belt and maybe the only person with as much time spent on the UTMB course as Kilian. After being robbed at Hardrock this year I think he has his sights set heavy on a win or at least a podium here to make up for it. Again yet another runner here who may not have recovered from past performances this summer.
Personally those are the only runners I really care about. The rest being a jumble of Euro names, any number of which will undoubtedly filling in the top 15 finishing positions.
Upon further investigation weather forecast for the 31st-1st in and around Chamonix is mild with possible light rain, good racing conditions all around....for now.
My prediction goes as follows
Jim Walmsley
Kilian Jornet
Xavier Thevenard
Zach Miller
Alex Nichols
Tim Tollefson
Mark Hammond
Alberto Hernando
Ryan Sandes
Michel lanne
If I'm being completely honest though I would love to see Zach blow them all out of the water with an unprecedented race off the front the whole 100 miles.