Can Houlihan Compete in sub-14:30/sub-3:55 Race?

I'm willing to say Houlihan is suspect. She has a 4:03 PR then closes a 3:59 race in 59, then closes a 4:06 race in 57, then comes back in the 5k with a 28 last 200, and 13.0 last 100. I've never seen such a lethal kick in my life other than maybe Simpson once. She even ran a 8:36 indoor with Marielle Hall her only competition and ended up closing in a 28.6. If she's not doping, she's just a 1500 runner with good strength. I don't buy into the 800 time of 2:01 just because she rarely runs it and her PR is from 2014.

The only reason she's been doing the 5k is because it was a lot easier to make the team. If you have 15 flat ability and you have a decent kick (both of which she has), you can make the team. That doesn't fly internationally and it showed in London last year. It doesn't matter if the winning time is 14:45-15:00, you HAVE to have 14:30 ability. Obiri closed her last 3k in 8:22 after Ayana took off. Shelby can't run that straight up.

Can Houlihan close a 4:00-4:05 flat race in 1:57-1:59, maybe. And that's what it has taken to medal at world's the past 3 years. I think she can round into that form by Doha. Maybe run 3:57 on the circuit. She has the speed, she just needs 3:55-3:57 ABILITY and it's looking like she's headed that way. Look at the medallist from the past 3 years. Dibaba- 3:55, Kipyegon- 3:55, Simpson- 3:57, Semenya- only 3:59, but barely runs it and has 1:54 speed. Even other players right outside the medals. Muir- 3:55, Hassan- 3:56, Rowbury- 3:56.

NOP Skeptic wrote:

Can Houlihan close a 4:00-4:05 flat race in 1:57-1:59, maybe. And that's what it has taken to medal at world's the past 3 years.

This is simply false. Semenya medalled last year and didn't close in sub 2. In '15 and '16 the winning times were considerably slower than 4:05.

She seems to be progressing about like the other women in Jerry's program. Seems to take them 2 to 3 good years of training to adjust and make the move to the next level with his system. So I don't especially see anything suspicious here.

Gwen should make the adjustment in 2020 right on time.

alij wrote:

Houlihan is coming around nicely. Tremendous fitness and form.

However, she is competing in an era where the last few medals have gone in about 14:30-type races and sub-3:55 type races. Does she have the fitness to run this pace and then unleash her deadly sprint?

Thoughts?

With the amount of sauce she’s consuming, yes

I would say maybe & definitely not.

chapppy wrote:

NOP Skeptic wrote:

Can Houlihan close a 4:00-4:05 flat race in 1:57-1:59, maybe. And that's what it has taken to medal at world's the past 3 years.

This is simply false. Semenya medalled last year and didn't close in sub 2. In '15 and '16 the winning times were considerably slower than 4:05.

Okay my bad, Semenya was just outside sub 2 for her last 800m. The winning times in '15 and '16 were closer to 4:08 and 4:10. 2017 was 4:02.

Still, Houlihan will generally need the ability to close in a sub 2 in a 4:02-4:10 race. I think she's getting there and needs to stick with the 1500m. She will not be able to medal at 5k without 14:30 ability, my main point. Only Rowbury could possibly do it but she's been up and down.

Last two gold medals have been won in 4:08 and 4:02 with tremendous last 800s. With her 5k background, Houlihan can compete at 1500. Don't think she's ready for a 14:30 5k just yet.

No need for further speculation:

https://www.iaaf.org/news/news/lausanne-announces-womens-1500m-field

Why do people think Houlihan is that good? She's run a few good races against weak fields. She hasn't done anything significant, yet. Relax people. Let's hope she continues to show the promise and maybe she has the ability to kick off a fast pace, but we haven't seen that yet.

I'm rooting for her but lets have some realistic perspective please.

Predictor wrote:

She looks capable of 3:55 and 14:45 so she can certainly compete.

What makes her look capable of 3:55?

The Fokus wrote:

Predictor wrote:

She looks capable of 3:55 and 14:45 so she can certainly compete.

What makes her look capable of 3:55?

I don't know 3:55 but she could get close to the AR. On the other hand, Muir's PR was only .43 faster than Houlihan's when she ran 3:55. Houlihan is in great form and needs to take advantage of it in a year with no championship.

The 1500m field in Eugene was hardly weak. She had considerably improved already in the early 2018 indoor season, done well at the world indoors and the deadly finishing kick is hard to deny.

I don't quite see an improvement of more than 30 sec. in the 5k (to sub 14:30) although considering her indoor 3k she should certainly be able to run around 14:45-50.

And with 4-5 sec. improvement over 1500 at 25 yo who knows what could be possible in the next two years.

Relax please wrote:

Why do people think Houlihan is that good? She's run a few good races against weak fields. She hasn't done anything significant, yet.

I agree some Houlifans are getting ahead of themselves. But I don't think that's reason to deny what Houlihan has accomplished. By running under 4:00 at Pre, she joined an elite club. A very elite club. Only six other American women ever have run under 4 -- Mary Slaney, Susie Favor-Hamilton, Jenny Simpson, Anna Willard, Christin Wurth-Thomas and Shannon Rowbury. Except for Houlihan, no American under 30 has run faster than 4:03.3.

To be blunt: By running a sub 4, Houlihan has showed that she, unlike any other young American has what it takes to compete internationally. True, she won't need that speed to win championship races, but history shows that Americans who can't run close to 4:00 don't win big races or medal. In other words, by running as fast as she did, Houlihan has greatly improved the odds that the Rowbury/Simpson/Uceny era, in which Americans are relevant internationally, will continue.

You are right that track fans need to be realistic, and that realism requires patience. Who knows what the future will bring? Maybe Houlihan will never run that fast again -- Willard only broke 4 once, and Wurth-Thomas only did it twice. And maybe she won't run that fast again for a while -- it took Simpson five years to break 4 after her 3:59.9 at Pre. But after Pre, Houlihan is no longer just another 4:03 American with "promise"; instead, she is the only American in the under 30/under 4:00 club. That alone should be enough for fans of American running.

I'm with Goldilocks, I'm not catching what you are saying.. are you saying no American has under 30 has run faster than 4:03.3? Mary Slaney ran 3:57.12 at the age of 25, in 1983.

I'm with Goldilocks wrote:

I agree some Houlifans are getting ahead of themselves. But I don't think that's reason to deny what Houlihan has accomplished. By running under 4:00 at Pre, she joined an elite club. A very elite club. Only six other American women ever have run under 4 -- Mary Slaney, Susie Favor-Hamilton, Jenny Simpson, Anna Willard, Christin Wurth-Thomas and Shannon Rowbury. Except for Houlihan, no American under 30 has run faster than 4:03.3.

.

And Jenny Simpson ran 3:59.90 at the age of 23.

Anna Willard ran sub-4 at age 25.

No American now under 30 has run under 4:00.

She is a world class runner at this point in time, and is a threat to medal in any big 1500 event. Her finishing speed is very, very good, and she appears to be a strong, coordinated athlete as well, very well suited to being agile and working through crowds in big races. I hope she does well.

Your question is illogical. My statement is subjective but you are asking for objective criteria. I am merely speaking about how she looks, her build, her form, her intense gaze. Mary Cain does not look fast to me but she ran fast. Purrier does not look fast to me but she is fast. I would have missed the mark on those 2 if going by my perception based on looks so I may be incorrect this time. I will go one step further though and say that she looks capable of 3:54.9.

Looks like OP is spot on... today's DL Top 5 sub-14:25

https://rabat.diamondleague.com/en/programme-results-rabat/#baseFrame#__athDisciplineRoot#DisciplineInit#Rabat2018_TIMING_ATW050101_json##main-frame_content#__athRun#RunSubFrame#Rabat2018_TIMING_ATW050101_json