The way we see it, based on past accomplishments and recent form, five women have greater than five percent chance of victory -- Mergia, Kiplagat, Hasay, Flanagan, and Huddle -- and three of them are American. Considering how well all of the Americans have been running recently and the absence of a behemoth like Keitany or Tirunesh Dibaba, we feel confident in saying that the pre-race odds of an American victory in Boston in 2018 are the best they've been in the World Marathon Majors era. They're definitely WAY, WAY better than Flanagan's odds of victory in New York last fall as before that race as Keitany was coming off a 2:17:01 in London and was a HUMONGOUS favorite.
But that doesn't mean an American will win.
http://www.letsrun.com/news/2018/04/2018-boston-marathon-womens-preview-shalane-flanagan-jordan-hasay-molly-huddle-desi-linden/
2018 Boston Marathon Women's Race - Will an American win for the first time in the professional era?
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just asking
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Do people really think Huddle is capable of a 2:19 type of performance? She ran 2:28 in NYC without a huge negative split like Flanagan had. I don't think she is guaranteed any sort of huge improvement just because she's done one marathon, and I don't think that somebody's debut marathon is necessarily going to be slower than their next marathon.
Anyway...Flanagan for the win...Kiplagat goes home devastated, etc. -
reed wrote:
Do people really think Huddle is capable of a 2:19 type of performance? She ran 2:28 in NYC without a huge negative split like Flanagan had. I don't think she is guaranteed any sort of huge improvement just because she's done one marathon, and I don't think that somebody's debut marathon is necessarily going to be slower than their next marathon.
Anyway...Flanagan for the win...Kiplagat goes home devastated, etc.
Yes. I think's it's conceivable she could run a 2:19 type race. At shorter distances, Huddle is just as good as any American ever at 5k (former AR), 10k (AR) and half (AR).
You're worried that she ran 2:28 in her first marathon on an abbreviated buildup? That's like saying I'm worried because Galen Rupp's PR is 2:09:20.
1) Huddle was third in that race.
2) She ran her final 5.2 miles faster than the race winner who is one of the GOATs in women's history - Mary Keitany.
All of that being said, the problem is I don't know if she'll do it as she's only got one marathon under her built. I know Hasay is a great marathoner and I know Flanagan won NYC. I think the odds are very high that Huddle is a great marathoner as well. -
I do think an american will win the women's race, though I'd say 60-40 odds sound about right... I'm cheering for Hasay, but I've decided that Shalane is the top seed for an american (although it is VERY close). I also agree that it's possible that Huddle could run 2:19 someday - obviously not happening on Monday though. I wouldn't be shocked if she had that potential though.
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I like Huddle on paper but am concerned with tactical inexperience at the distance. 2016 NYC she ran conservative and within herself. She closed well but with nobody around(correct me if I’m wrong). In the most recent CTolle podcast Huddle was a little coy with her approach and training. Hopefully she’s saving the good stuff for showtime.
Shalane seems to cover all her bases in marathon build up—very rigorous approach...diet, core, course recon, racing and grouping with the right training partners. She’s also very open when discussing her mindset before, during and after the event. RichRoll podcast from 2 years ago was very insightful.
Hasay just seems like the sweetest person on the planet. How can you not root for her? Weather and on-task tactics may throw her off. Thankfully she has a coach that can help in this department right up until the gun. Does she have the nasty to win?
I really like Linden because she reminds me of myself as a runner (idealized version!)...a tough gritty grinder. As previously mentioned, she’s consistent. One of the four is likely to have a very off day. It probably won’t be her. That improves her chances. With the weather forecast her chances may improve even more. -
It seems almost impossible to choose a favorite to me. I think it's 35-30-30-5 Huddle-Flanagan-Hasay-Linden.
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Desi is coming in under the radar this year. That's good. I remember that was not the case last year. I'm going with Desi for the win here.
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Yes, I think Shalane is going to cement her legacy as top American runner. Huddle may end up with a faster PR during her career, but for this race, Shalane is riding high from NYC and has so much more experience than Huddle at Boston and the marathon in general. That will be the difference this time.
In spite of Jordan's two fantastic marathons, I still don't quite trust she can do it again. Probably because she had been only decent as a pro prior to taking to the roads.
Desi would be a nice story too, but I just don't see the top end needed to compete at the end. Has a relatively slow half PR and track times no where near what Huddle and Flanagan have. -
My pick is Hasay for the Americans. She has the experience of a fast time, and she had decent track speed.
Flanagan always falls short in Boston, Molly hasn't run fast for the distance and is inexperienced, and Desi rarely does anything great.
My overall pick is Kiplagat though. For obvious reasons. -
I absolutely love it when people come on this message board to talk about NYC Marathon times as indicators of a runner's ability. It is hands-down the hardest of the WMM courses. The course records are 2:05:06 for the men and 2:22:31 for the women. Huddle ran 2:28:13 for 3rd place in 2016. Here in 2018 she set the American record in the half marathon. She is absolutely a contender.
People debut in NYC for precisely two reason:
1) The money. An American debut will almost always get its highest payday in NYC.
2) You don't have to worry about running a blazing time in your debut because it is impossible on that course. -
I just hope the Americans don’t find themselves in a position to win with a Kenyan in pursuit, run each other into the ground over the win and both bonk....and see someone else win.
Just sayin’ -
I like the Americans' odds as a group but individually I still think Kiplagat has the best chances at taking it all.
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reed wrote:
Do people really think Huddle is capable of a 2:19 type of performance? She ran 2:28 in NYC without a huge negative split like Flanagan had. I don't think she is guaranteed any sort of huge improvement just because she's done one marathon, and I don't think that somebody's debut marathon is necessarily going to be slower than their next marathon.
Anyway...Flanagan for the win...Kiplagat goes home devastated, etc.
Reed- Huddle is so much better than Flanagan.
Also - have fun out there, interested to see how you do because you did that 10-miler at marathon pace on Sunday ...seems kinda close to the marathon but long tapers are over-rated i guess -
Lisa Rainsberger is an American. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lisa_Rainsberger
She won Boston in 1985. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lisa_Rainsberger
Pro era started in 1981. https://www.runnersworld.com/running-times-info/1981-cascade-run-off-the-race-that-changed-the-sport
I believe she was running for Saucony based on the singlet in the race finish photo. https://www.runnersworld.com/newswire/last-american-woman-to-win-the-boston-marathon-wants-to-lose-that-dist -
rojo wrote:
reed wrote:
Do people really think Huddle is capable of a 2:19 type of performance? She ran 2:28 in NYC without a huge negative split like Flanagan had. I don't think she is guaranteed any sort of huge improvement just because she's done one marathon, and I don't think that somebody's debut marathon is necessarily going to be slower than their next marathon.
Anyway...Flanagan for the win...Kiplagat goes home devastated, etc.
Yes. I think's it's conceivable she could run a 2:19 type race. At shorter distances, Huddle is just as good as any American ever at 5k (former AR), 10k (AR) and half (AR).
You're worried that she ran 2:28 in her first marathon on an abbreviated buildup? That's like saying I'm worried because Galen Rupp's PR is 2:09:20.
1) Huddle was third in that race.
2) She ran her final 5.2 miles faster than the race winner who is one of the GOATs in women's history - Mary Keitany.
All of that being said, the problem is I don't know if she'll do it as she's only got one marathon under her built. I [i]know [/u]Hasay is a great marathoner and I know Flanagan won NYC. I think the odds are very high that Huddle is a great marathoner as well.
Huddle is about 5 years past her sub 2:20 possibility and we know it.
She is the classic American distance runner, waits to long to get to the marathon. She will never reach her marathon potential,lots of miles and racing on that body and marathon brings that out. She will be competitive and always in the hunt but not where she could have been.
Coach Ray is trash talking and wants to put concern in the minds of other runners just as Jordan posted a spectacular workout. Coaches mistake was letting her run Boston if he really be believes what he said, she should have raced in Europe for one of the fast spring marathons and gotten the American record.
I like the way Jordan marathon races.
It took Flanagan how many marathons to get it right? She started earlier. Now she may have raced just one too many marathons to win Boston. -
the problem is the "non-americans" now also have access to shoes with springs in them so the small window of time where the americans had the advantage is over, unless maybe Nike is secretly making vapor 6% springs for the american elites
btw Huddle is the real champion with the "old school" Sauconys - if she does 2:20 in them, that's some true world-class talent right there and not from the +2 vdot boost from the vapors
remember all the records Kastor and Radcliffe set were in plain eva shoes -
elites typically run a marathon 3x their 15K time and Huddle just did Gate River a month ago in 47:50
so that's 2:24
however she ran that 15K completely solo after the first 5K and this will be rather different -
reed wrote:
Do people really think Huddle is capable of a 2:19 type of performance? She ran 2:28 in NYC without a huge negative split like Flanagan had. I don't think she is guaranteed any sort of huge improvement just because she's done one marathon, and I don't think that somebody's debut marathon is necessarily going to be slower than their next marathon.
Anyway...Flanagan for the win...Kiplagat goes home devastated, etc.
No way Flanagan wins. I bet odds are 50-50 she doesn’t even finish.
Then she’ll find a way to make the race about her when another American wins. -
Hfuxhhxhjj wrote:
reed wrote:
Do people really think Huddle is capable of a 2:19 type of performance? She ran 2:28 in NYC without a huge negative split like Flanagan had. I don't think she is guaranteed any sort of huge improvement just because she's done one marathon, and I don't think that somebody's debut marathon is necessarily going to be slower than their next marathon.
Anyway...Flanagan for the win...Kiplagat goes home devastated, etc.
No way Flanagan wins. I bet odds are 50-50 she doesn’t even finish.
Then she’ll find a way to make the race about her when another American wins.
i think you're right
