Deanouk wrote:
casual obsever wrote:
Well, and how did the performances change?
Decade by decade for non-African born male 5000 m runners, averaged over top-5 times (feel free to check the stats):
1960s: 13:22.5 -> some steroids, very few blood "dopers"
1970s: 13:13.4 -> -9s; unlimited blood transfusions + primitive steroids
1980s: 13:04.9 -> -8s; height of cold war doping era, unlimited blood transfusions, steroids virtually undetectable
1990s: 12:59.2 -> -6s; unlimited EPO, begin serious steroid testing
2000s: 12:56.3 -> -3s; begin EPO testing, partial ABP
(2010s: 12:57.7 -> +2s; full ABP incl. steroid module - but still 2 years to go) – needs to be updated
Decade by decade for non-African born male 800 m runners, averaged over top-5 times (feel free to check the stats):
1960s: 1:44.6-> some steroids, very few blood "dopers"
1970s: 1:43.3 -> -1.3s; unlimited blood transfusions + primitive steroids
1980s: 1:42.2 -> -1.1s; height of cold war doping era, unlimited blood transfusions, steroids virtually undetectable
1990s: 1:42.8 -> +0.6s; unlimited EPO, begin serious steroid testing
2000s: 1:42.8 -> +/-0s; begin EPO testing, partial ABP
(2010s: 1:42.8 -> +/-0s; full ABP incl. steroid module - but still 2 years to go) – needs to be updated
Other observations with focus on male non-Africans as per rek's guidelines:
- times improved a lot from the 70's to the 80's (roid time)
- 5000 m times improved hugely after the 80's as well (no test for EPO)
- the fastest decade in the 5000 was the 00's (pre ABP)
- the fastest decade in the 800 was the 80's (roid time)
- the fastest 800 overall was in the 80's (roid time)
- the fastest 5000 overall was in the 90's (no test for EPO)
Firstly, I'm not quite sure why this formerly published (on these boards) data, which focuses on 'non-African' athletes is relevant to this thread/discussion? By excluding Africans (who have always had a large presence in the ranks of the world's best middle and distance runners), you're basing all implied 'drug trends' on European athletes. Given the provenance of recent positive cases over the last few years, I would strongly suggest that this is at least a case of 'barking up just one small tree'.
My personal assessment of the trends shown in the progression of the 5000m, is that it merely shows a natural and expected progression over the last 50+ years. In fact, the rate of improvement from one decade to the next shows a diminishing rate of progression, which is what one should see!
A 9 secs improvement down to 8 secs, down to 6 and then 3 secs, is perfectly normal, illustrating a gradual improvement in tracks, spikes, knowledge of nutrition, physiology, training, etc. A suggested effect of a variety of different drug types are not necessary to explain this trend, although it is applied, nonetheless.
Secondly, this analysis is based on just 5 athletes per decade! This is hardly a satisfactory sample pool to get a clear picture of trends based on available drug use. I would suggest you need 20 athletes at least to provide some useful data.
I have compiled a similar list based on top 10 performers and top 10 performances for each decade, in the 800m. This is not ideal, as explained in the previous paragraph, but it does give a more accurate impression than that based on just 5.
The first thing I noticed, as I went through all the athletes' names until I reached the No. 10 non-African, was just how much longer it took to reach that point with each succeeding decade. While that wasn't much of a surprise to me or probably anyone here, the sheer number of Africans that were ahead of the 10th non-African increased enormously in the 90's and 00's.
I don't have the time to type up all the athletes (African as well as non-African) at present, I will give an overview of what I found.
1960's - only 1 African born athlete (Kiprugut) in the top 11. The top 10 guys were: - Snell, Ryun, Doubell, Kemper, Bell, Dyce, Plachy, Farrell, Sandison & Crothers. Interestingly only Snell had a 2nd performance (1:45.1) that made it into the top 10 times.
Top 10 men - average time = 1:45.02
Top 10 performances - average time = 1:44.97
1970's - Only 2 Africans (Boit & Kipkurgat) in the top 12. Of the top 10 non-Africans - Coe, Wohlhuter, Juantorena, Fiasconaro, Beyer, Van Damme, Marajo, Susanj, Ovett & Wottle - only El Caballo has more than 1 time that appears in the top 10 times, with 4 performances!
Top 10 men - average time = 1:43.69
Top 10 performances - average time = 1:43.53
1980's - There are 3 Africans that make it in to the top 13, with Koskei at No.3, Konchellah at No.6 and Ereng at No.7.
The top 10 non-Africans are: - Coe, Cruz, Gray, Cram, Barbosa, Mack, P. Elliott, Wuyke, Druppers and Jones.
Interestingly, the top 10 times are provided by just 4 athletes (Cruz, Gray, Coe & Cram), with half, 5 of them, coming from Cruz, and 3 from Gray. This does distort the stats somewhat and makes for a bigger disparity between top 10 men and top 10 times.
Top 10 men - average time = 1:42.97
Top 10 performances - average time = 1:42.44
1990's - This is where there is a big sea change in the 800m event. Before reaching the 10th fastest non-African man over 800m, I had to get to No.25. So, there were 15 Africans and 10 non-Africans in the top 25. The other thing that struck me was the sheer quantity of performances from the African athletes compared to the non-Africans, and that's not just from Kipketer. I counted 96 performances from African born athletes that were quicker than the 10th fastest European, Martin Steele at 1:43.84. That works out at c. 6 times/performances (on average) for each of the 15 African runners. In contrast, only Rodal (with 3) and Gray (with 2) amongst the non-Africans, set more than 1 time that made it into the top 10 non-African performances.
The top 10 non-Africans were: - Rodal, Gray, Tellez, Bucher, P. Elliott, Barbosa, Everett, Kenah, Douglas and Steele.
Top 10 men - average time = 1:43.13
Top 10 performances - average time = 1:43.00
2000's - We have to go as far as the No.19 fastest man to reach the 10th fastest non-African. In other words, there are 9 Africans and 10 non-Africans, so there is more of a balance than compared to the previous decade.
The top 10 non-Africans were: - Borzakovskiy, Bucher, Lopez, Baala, Czaplewski, Som, Milkevics? K. Robinson, Reed and Longo.
The top 10 times set from the above were provided by just 5 athletes, and 2 of those (Borza & Bucher) provided 7 of them!
Top 10 men - average time = 1:43.27
Top 10 performances - average time = 1:42.92
2010's - Like the 1990's, I needed to go as far as the 25th fastest man from this decade (well 8 years) before reaching the 10th fastest non-African. Also, like the 90's, there were some 97 performances from 15 African athletes that were better than the 10th fastest non-African. In contrast, there were 20 performances from the 10 non-African athletes that were faster than the 10th fastest non-African athlete, Lewandowski at 1:43.721
The top 10 fastest non-Africans were: - Tuka, Bosse, Soloman, Murphy, Symmonds, Kszczot, Berian, Brazier, Lopez and Lewandowski. Of those, Bosse, Soloman and Symmonds all produced 2 performances that made it into the top 10 fastest times by non-Africans.
Another standout is the fact that half of the non-Africans are from the US. That's a greater number than in any of the previous 5 decades!
Top 10 men average time = 1:43.14
Top 10 times average time = 1:43.01
In concluding, I think the stats show that there has really been very little change in the depth of standards over 800m since the end of the 70's. If we look at the average of the top 10 performers (top 10 men):
1960s: - 1:45.02
1970s: - 1:43.69
1980s: - 1:42.97
1990s: - 1:43.13
2000s: - 1:43.27
2010s: - 1:43.14
NB, some of the performances from the 60's would have been on cinders, so if that were taken into consideration, then possibly 0.5 secs could come off the average.
These stats show that over the last 4 decades, the average time for the best 10 non-African men over 800m, has fluctuated by just 0.3sec.
If we now look at the fastest 10 performances/times run by non-African men in each decade we see a similar pattern.
1960s: - 1:44.97
1970s: - 1:43.53
1980s: - 1:42.44
1990s: - 1:43.00
2000s: - 1:42.92
2010s: - 1:43.01
We see that for non-African athletes, the average of their best times set over the past 3 decades have differed by just 0.09secs.
The one slight anomaly from the stats above is the 1980's being on average about 0.5sec faster than the decades that followed. This can partly be explained by the fact that half of the ten fastest times were set by just one person, Cruz. But, when you then compare to the previous table (that of fastest 10 performers), one can see that there is actually little change in the 80's to the overall trend.
At this juncture, I want to raise the point that dividing the last 50 years into nice rounded decades starting with years ending in zero (0) is a somewhat arbitrary division. In the same respect, so is 10-year groupings; why not 12- or 15-year divisions?
I have conducted further analysis of 800m data in which I have changed the start of each decade assessed. I have also chosen to include African athletes, and this time focused on the top 10 performers' best time in each decade, rather than top 10 performances: otherwise some decades would just reflect the dominance of 1 or 2 men, e.g. Kipketer or Rudisha.
I have chosen to divide the years into:
1964-1973;
1974- 1983;
1984 - 1993;
1994 - 2003;
2004 - 2013;
2014 - 2018.
The results show a very different trend.
1964 - 1973 (N.B. some times taken from 880yd races): -
Top 10 performers - Fiasconaro, Wohlhuter, Ryun, Wottle, Doubell, Vasala, Malan, Kiprugut, Broberg & Swensen.
Average time: - 1:44.37
1974 - 1983 (N.B. some times taken from 880yd races): -
Top 10 performers - Coe, Juantorena, Wohlhuter, Boit, Cram, Wulbeck, Beyer, Van Damme, Marajo, Kipkurgat.
Average time: - 1:43.50
1984 - 1993
Top 10 performers - Cruz, Koskei, Gray, Cram, Elliott, Konchellah, Coe, Barbosa, Ereng, Tanui.
Average time: - 1:42.82
1994 - 2003
Top 10 performers - Kipketer, Bungei, Borzakovskiy, Bucher, Rodal, Ndururi, Sepeng, Kimutai, Onyancha, Nduwimana
Average time: - 1:42.47
2004 - 2013
Top 10 performers - Rudisha, Amos, Kaki, Aman, Kitum, Yego, Borzakovskiy, Kamel, Solomon, Lalang
Average time: - 1:42.38
2014 - 2018
Top 10 performers - Korir, Amos, Rudisha, Tuka, Bosse, Makhloufi, Aman, Cheruiyot, A. Kipketer, Murphy
Average time: - 1:42.55
This doesn't look anything like the trend put forward by Rekrunner. Apart from the progression being more gradual, and reflecting a diminishing rate of progression - -0.87, -0.68, -0.35, -0.09, and then + 0.17 (based on just 5 years) - there is no clear 'blood doping' phase in the 70's or 'steroid free for all' in the 80's. Moreover, steroids were only legal in the first period covered (1964 -73), being made illegal in 1975. and steroids have been tested for since then. The idea that there was no testing for steroids in the 70's and 80's is not true. Of course, the testing improved and become more sophisticated, as any drug testing does, but there were athletes caught in these decades (mainly sprinters and field event competitors, and very few middle-distance guys), proving that there was a test and it was relatively effective.
The other takeaway from this analysis is the increased number of African athletes that appear on the lists, as the 'average time' improved. From just 1 African athlete appearing on the list from 64-73, to 2 in the 74-83 period, 4 from 84-93, 7 from 94 -03, 8 from 04-13 and 7 in the last period.
I don't believe that this trend is purely down to EPO use being more widespread in African nations, although we know that testing there has been less robust compared to most other parts of the world, and I do think it has played a part. What I do believe, however, is that by adjusting sample group sizes and changing the dates of the groupings just slightly, you can derive a completely different picture and trend.