This should be a homerun wrote:
IAAF conversions are not designed to convert from one distance to another- a strength based runner will be faster over 800 than the equivalent of their performance over 600. Additionally, this was a solo TT, so slow than race conditions.
If I can step in and interpret for the OP. I think he was saying that the 600 was all out, the rest of the workout was not. I’ve always felt for myself that I could hold what I can for 3/4 distance in a TT solo (sounds like OP did not even have coach) for a full race. So 1:31 in these conditions predicts like 2:02-3, the other stuff is just bonus.
I’m sure top coaches across the country tell their athletes the same thing about 3/4 length time trials.
I’m well aware the IAAF tables are comparison based - not necessarily IF and THEN predictors. If you take the superior data point, the 1600, and compare it to the 800 it’s still 2:04.35. I’ve trained for, studied, and coached the 800 over the past 28 years. A simple search of indoor men’s and boy’s stats suggests someone who ran a 4:36ish 1600 also ran an 800 in 2:05-2:08.
Since the poster mentioned he would have been the fastest high school girl in the 1600 by 6 seconds this year, let’s look at the all time high school bests for females.
All Time Performers
600m 1:27.13 Samantha Watson #10 1:30.35
800m 2:01.78 Samantha Watson #10 2:06:13
Mile 4:28.25 Mary Cain (Converts to 4:26.75 1600m) #10 4:41.56 (4:39.9)
FYI Samantha Watson was the only person who made the 600 and 800 all time performers/performances.
#5 Performance
800 2:04.13 Ajee Wilson
Mile 4:38.36 Alexa Afraimson (Converts to 4:36.7)
#5 Performer
800. 2:04.90 Tamieka Grizzle
Mile 4:39.0 Lynn Jennings
Watson is a speed based runner with a 4:42 mile. I didn’t even bother to look up Wilson’s 1600/Mile time. Slaney is the only one who made both top 10s. Slaney’s indoor mile time is soft but it’s probably due to the quality of the tracks and opportunities for her to run fast in the early 70s. If Cain decided to run a fast 800 indoors she probably makes the top 10 since she has the outdoor record, 1:59.51.
The original poster has shown very good aerobic ability but is lacking in the speed department based on the times he provided. Should he go out and run close to 1:31-60-27 the next time, it would change the prediction to 2:04 and maybe high 2:03.