Here's the bottom line, friends.
Pre-conference
Going into the first day, based on the seeds and extrapolations of seasonal results for the relays, the expected results were:
1. WashU 139, on 26 placings (5.34)
2. CMU 110, on 20 (5.5)
3. Chicago 78, on 14 (5.57)
4. Case 51, on 14 (3.64)
5. Brandeis 49, on 11 (4.45)
6. NYU 48, on 7 (6.85)
7. Emory 21, on 4 (5.25)
8. Rochester 0 (lul)
Observations based on that:
Brandeis would be embarrassingly bad if Gourde didn't fall into their lap from nowhere.
What the hell happened to Emory's recruiting? Pietsch leaves and the team falls apart?
WashU and CMU continue to be the class of the conference, in that order. WU is deeper, and CMU is too off-balance (weak sprints, disappointing distance) to keep up. Outdoor might be a different story with the extra field events.
Weird that the team that will do best at Nats (Brandeis, because of Gourde) is a non-player at the conference level. On the opposite, you have CMU with zero potential A-A runners but a consistently strong team at conference.
First day
After day 1, the expected results are now:
1. WashU 128 (-11)
2. CMU 109 (-1)
3. Chicago 61 (-17)
4. NYU 60 (+12)
5. Case 56 (+5)
6. Brandeis 49
7. Emory 33 (+12)
Observations based on that:
Terrible day for Chicago, assuming form holds. Very bad day in the 60h.
CMU closes the gap on WU despite huge underperformance (-9) in the 5000. They'll need a lot to go right for them to win - sweep of the SP, a win in the TJ, and for Larrick/Mills to deliver in the 8. A Yukevich upset win in the Mile would also help. WashU underperforming in the PV would be icing.
NYU has a good shot at 3rd, which is a great result for them.
In case you're curious, all of this is based on a Python script I wrote back in the day to help me parse Hy-tek results. I'm an alumnus of one of the UAA schools, ran track, and remain a fan. All of the schools in the conference are very difficult and all of the kids have to balance so much, so I now root for everyone with admiration and respect.
Also, shout out to Case for the solid video feed and to Nate Wahner for the awkward but well-informed color commentary that makes the broadcast fun.