oh please wrote:
Valverde has long been a favorite of mine (I even have a Spanish Champions Caisse d'Epargne jersey from 2007), but the fact is he has been around so long and has never delivered at the tour, that it is silly to think in his mid 30s he will finally manage it.
If you study the Tour, you will see that multiple winners are the norm, not the exception. There are so many intangibles that make a Tour winner, much more than just drugs and horsepower. Chances are Froome will win again, which is too bad because I'd like to see someone else take over. A true darkhorse win is so unlikely. The last time that happened was probably Armstrong him self in 1999 and then maybe Riis before that in 95 or 96.
The way the course is set up this year (likely intended to favor Bardet) doesn't have a whole lot of summit finishes or TT kilometers. IF Valverede can hang close enough over the last climb on the downhill finish days, his 10 second time bonuses will start to add up.