MIAC XC 2017

Carleton men has this MIAC in the bag unless the following happens.

Olaf will have to get their five -- if not 7 -- in before Carleton's fourth and fifth. That became considerably harder this weekend with Meikle of Carleton getting a 1 minute 8k PR and seasonal best by a minute 43. Meikle was a 26:40 guy at best last year. Is he really a 25:40 guy now? Or was that just the benefit of a fast course. Given relationship between top guys of Carleton he seems to be for real. Dodge also is much improved over last year. Still Olaf has amazing depth and their 1-5 spread is now under 40 seconds and (1-7 at 40 seconds) I expect it to be under 30 by MIAC. The Olaf course is considerably harder -- or at least measured more accurately - than the Oregon course that Carleton ran on this weekend. So can Olaf get 5 if not 7 under 26. If they do and Carleton doesn't get 5 under 26, Olaf may come away with another trophy. But this will be a nail biter. I am hoping the trophy stays on the west side of town. But it very well may move east.

Here are two scenarios for Olaf to win.

Cook Gallardo

Henschel

Mueller

Wilkinson

Lerdall

Ketola

Plumb

Timm

Meikle

Dodge

or if Olaf cannot break up Carleton's top 3 then

Cook Gallardo

Mueller

Wilkinson

Henschel

Lerdall

Ketola

Plumb

Timm

Furcich

Anderson or Buchmeier or Primozich

Meikle

Dodge

Both of these look to heavily rely on Henschel being Olaf's number 1 runner. Unfortunately, back-to-back weeks of him being their number 6 and 7 runner leads me to think he might be done for now. He might bounce back by regionals, but that is a tall order for a race that is only 2 weeks away..

Henschel's poor performance is probably a result of him throwing up big mileage to get ready to peak for the Turkey Trot. He's not peaking until after the NCAA season is done.

Henschel is not "burned out," he's been dealing with health problems. Personally I think Lerdall and Ketola will beat Mueller and Wilkinson. If that happens, Olaf is in the driver's seat, and if Henschel is back up with the two of them, Olaf wins for sure.

What do you guys know about Hatton? Did he have a mental break down? Or is he injured? I would like to see him perform well at MIACs.

Done like TGiving Turkey wrote:

He will be nice and fresh for the turkey trot seeing as he will be left off the regionals team and even if he does make the regionals team he won't need to worry about racing the weekend after! #Roasted #TRISDODGEWILLBASTEHISASS

Fake news

Fastnbulbous wrote:

Teammate Julia Kirtland was 14th in the 1996 OT in 2:37:53, was the U.S. Marathon champion in 1997 in a stunning 2:27:46 (the best time ever by an MIAC alum?), and was 23rd in the 2000 OT behind Tonkin.

Wikipedia had the wrong time for Kirtland, it was actually 2:37:46. Still an amazing accomplishment for an MIAC runner to be U.S. champ of course.

WEEK 7 UPDATE

INDIVIDUAL PREDICTIONS

Tier 1

1 . Donson Cook-Gallardo, Carleton

Tier 2

2. Matthew Wilkinson, Carleton

3. Lucas Mueller, Carleton

4. Thomas Lerdall, St. Olaf

5. Keith Ketola, St. Olaf

Tier 3

6. Karl Wachter, St. Thomas

7. Matthew Burgstahler, St. John’s

8. Austin O’Hare, St. Mary’s

9. Evan Hatton, Bethel

10. Tremayne Collins, St. John’s

11. Tris Dodge, Carleton

12. Cameron Meikle, Carleton

13. Paul Timm, St. Olaf

14. Jack Henschel, St. Olaf

Tier 4

15. Andrew Stumbo, Gustavus

16. Ezekial Lelinga, Bethel

17. Erik Wicklund, Concordia

18. George McGivern, St. Thomas

19. Munir Isahak, Concordia

20. Frank Gustafson, Hamline

21. Andrew Plumb, St. Olaf

22. Kyle Mehrhof, Hamline

23. Justin Furcich, St. Olaf

24. William Anderson, St. Olaf

25. Seth Glidewell, St. Thomas

Tier 5

26. Adam Berkowitz, St. Thomas

27. Carl Kozlowski, St. Thomas

28. Parker Rosenau, St. Thomas

29. Chris Boranian, Macalester

30. Henry Boettcher, St. John’s

31. Tyler Bethke, Bethel

32. Jeremy Gilbertson, Gustavus

33. Andrew Fritz, St. Thomas

34. Hiroshi Nakajima, Carleton

35. Fernando Benitez, Hamline

36. Kevin Lamb, St. John’s

37. James Doherty, Macalester

38. Spencer Grant, Macalester

39. Jake Lepak, Macalester

40. Connor Haugen, Bethel

41. David Huffman, Bethel

42. Brandon Quibell, Concordia

43. Noah Kneeskern, Concordia

44. Anders Rasmussen, Bethel

45. Dan Allen, St. John’s

46. Nick Kerbeshian, Gustavus

Tier 6

47. Andy Barnhart, Bethel

48. Keegan Conrad, St. John’s

49. Jack Colleran, St. John’s

50. Brandon Krogman, St. Mary’s

51. Sam Jewson, Hamline

52. Brennan Gustafson, Gustavus

53. Nick Solheim, Concordia

54. Ryley Sandberg, Gustavus

55. Alex Wischnack, Gustavus

56. Erik Larson, Concordia

57. Ben Madigan, Gustavus

58. Tony Duchenes, Hamline

59. Keenan Ronayne, Carleton

60. Jordan Malikowski, St. Mary’s

61. Anthony Paladie, Hamline

62. Peter Jarka-Sellers, Macalester

Tier 7

63. Adrian Johnson, Macalester

64. Connor Haugrud, Concordia

65. Ben Borash, St. Mary’s

66. Nolan Ebner, Macalester

67. Jonathon Meaden, St. Mary’s

68. Ryan Moore, Augsburg

69. Isaac Tade, Augsburg

70. Isaiah Olsem, St. Mary’s

71. Benjamin Erickson, Augsburg

72. Ben Roen, Hamline

73. Tanner Moris, St. Mary’s

74. William McLeer, Augsburg

75. Greg Miller, Augsburg

76. Yasir Said, Augsburg

TEAM PREDICTIONS

Carleton (29 points)

Carleton’s top 5 look great right now. Donson is the clear favorite, Wilkinson and Mueller have been very consistent throughout the season, and Dodge and Meikle both had great races on Saturday. The projected point totals indicate that they are the clear favorite over St. Olaf, but I don’t think that is the case. If anyone doesn’t run well, they will not be saved by their depth. All five need to be at least close to their best if Carleton is going to pull this off.

St. Olaf (57 points)

Lerdall and Ketola ran well on Saturday, as they have all season. I feel very confident that they will be in the top 5 at MIAC. After the top 2, however, St. Olaf has a lot of question marks. Furcich and Plumb had good races as well, but they won’t be enough to win the team title if Carleton runs to their full potential. If Carleton is at their best, the Oles will need Timm and Henschel to also be at their best, who both have top 10, maybe top 5 potential.

St. Thomas (102 points)

I was very impressed by St. Thomas this weekend. Karl Wachter may be the best runner in the MIAC who isn’t from Northfield, and the Tommies have strong depth behind him. I’m still waiting for Rosenau to run as well as he did last spring, but I’m starting to lose faith in that happening.

St. John’s (128 points)

Even though they finished far behind St. Thomas at La Crosse, I think the Johnnies have a great chance to finish 3rd at MIAC. They have outperformed expectations at MIAC the last few years, and their top 5 definitely have more experience than the Tommies’ top 5. I wouldn’t be shocked if the runners I have ranked in the 30s and 40s move into the 20s and 30s at MIAC, which would be enough to catch St. Thomas.

Bethel (137 points)

Assuming Hatton is healthy, Bethel looks like a safe pick to finish between 4th and 6th. I don’t see much variability with them. Lelinga has been consistent, especially for a freshman, and their depth behind them has also been very consistent. I don’t think they have 3rd place upside like St. John’s, but as long as Hatton is healthy, I can’t see them finishing worse than 6th either.

Concordia (174 points)

Wicklund and Isahak both had strong races last weekend, but since they were one of just two MIAC teams that didn’t run at La Crosse, it is difficult to determine where they should be ranked. The Cobbers have decent depth behind their top 2, but I don’t think it’s enough to get them into the top 5.

Hamline (186 points)

Hamline and Concordia seem very similar to me. Hamline also has a solid top 2 in Gustafson and Mehrhof, but they lack the depth to compete with the top 5 teams. If a few guys come through at MIAC, which is always possible, or either St. John’s or Bethel falter, then either Concordia or Hamline could end up in the top 5.

Gustavus (199 points)

The fact that Gustavus’ top 4 are all freshmen, and they still have a chance to be in the top half of the MIAC is very impressive. While I think it is more likely that they finish between 7th and 9th, the future looks very bright for the Gusties. Regardless of what happens in 2017, I expect them to be a force in the years to come.

Macalester (205 points)

If Henry Harper hadn’t transferred, this would be a really fun team. Their top four have been very strong all year (although Lepak didn’t run on Saturday), but they desperately need a 5th. With Harper on the team, I think they would be top 5. Without him, I expect them to be 8th or 9th. However, if someone else can step up, I think they could finish as high as 6th.

St. Mary’s (250 points)

O’Hare has been solid all year, Krogman is decent, and Malikowski has improved throughout the year. If one of the teams ranked between 6th and 9th really falls apart, St. Mary’s could sneak into 9th, but that’s pretty much the best case scenario for them.

Augsburg (357 points)

Not sure if anyone cares about Augsburg, but if you’re reading this apparently you do. Augsburg has actually improved throughout the year. On Saturday their top 3 were under 29 and their top 5 were under 30. Certainly not anything to brag about, but they are better than they were at the start of the season.

My scores match up pretty close. I still have Kirtley as a possible Olaf #5 since he did run 26:16, while you still left him off. It doesn't matter, Olaf's #8-15 could possibly beat St. Thomas and St. John's.

Don't forget about Bethel and Hatton doing great at MIACs last year...

Nice to hear from you Hatton

For Carleton to win they have to make sure they didn't prematurely blow their load, like they've done almost every year with Ricks at the helm. Complete opposite story for Olaf. While the team has been highlighted by national caliber talent, their equally talented coaches have ensured a peak at/beyond conference. It is Carleton's race to lose and I think they'll do just that. Experienced runners and coaches will prevail this year.

Dropping this in the thread for all you hardcore MIAC fans. Jim Drews Invite had 8 MIAC teams, so besides Carleton obviously, it was a pretty good indicator of how teams will stack up in 10 days. Any interesting observations are welcome, like PT's gaping mouth at 200 to go like he saw a ghost

Here are the team results if you just take the MIAC teams from LAX.

St. Olaf - 41

1 Lerdall, Thomas

2 Ketola, Keith

11 Plumb, Andrew

13 Furcich, Justin

14 Timm, Paul

St. Thomas – 66

3 Wachter, Karl

9 McGivern, George

15 Glidewell, Seth

19 Berkowitz, Adam

20 Kozlowski, Carl

St. John’s – 98

4 Burgstahler, Matthew

6 Collins, Tremayne

23 Boettcher, Henry

31 Lamb, Kevin

34 Allen, Dan

Bethel – 140

8 Lelinga, Ezekiel

24 Bethke, Tyler

32 Haugen, Connor

33 Huffman, David

43 Huffman, Taylor

Hamline – 154

10 Gustafson, Frank

12 Mehrhof, Kyle

29 Benitez, Fernando

47 Jewson, Sam

56 Duchenes, Tony

Gustavus – 165

7 Stumbo, Andrew

25 Gilbertson, Jeremy

35 Kerbeshian, Nick

48 Gustafson, Brennan

50 Sandberg, Ryley

Macalester – 277

22 Boranian, Chris

44 Doherty, James

45 Grant, Spencer

76 Johnson, Adrian

90 Ebner, Nolan

Saint Mary’s – 278

5 O'Hare, Austin

39 Krogman, Brandon

63 Malikowski, Jordan

78 Borash, Ben

93 Meaden, Jonathon

Here are the scores from LAX with Carleton plugged in. I referred to Running Oracle's Tier system when plugging them in and I think they are fair assessments. Again, these are scores with out Concordia, Augsburg, etc. Just those who ran at La Crosse and Carleton included.

Carleton – 31

1 Donson Cook-Gallardo

4 Matthew Wilkinson

5 Lucas Meuller

10 Tris Dodge

11 Cameron Meikle

St. Olaf - 58

2 Lerdall, Thomas

3 Ketola, Keith

16 Plumb, Andrew

18 Furcich, Justin

19 Timm, Paul

St. Thomas – 89

6 Wachter, Karl

14 McGivern, George

20 Glidewell, Seth

24 Berkowitz, Adam

25 Kozlowski, Carl

St. John’s – 119

7 Burgstahler, Matthew

9 Collins, Tremayne

28 Boettcher, Henry

36 Lamb, Kevin

39 Allen, Dan

Bethel – 165

13 Lelinga, Ezekiel

29 Bethke, Tyler

37 Haugen, Connor

38 Huffman, David

48 Huffman, Taylor

Hamline – 179

15 Gustafson, Frank

17 Mehrhof, Kyle

34 Benitez, Fernando

52 Jewson, Sam

61 Duchenes, Tony

Gustavus – 190

12 Stumbo, Andrew

30 Gilbertson, Jeremy

40 Kerbeshian, Nick

53 Gustafson, Brennan

55 Sandberg, Ryley

Saint Mary’s – 301

8 O'Hare, Austin

44 Krogman, Brandon

68 Malikowski, Jordan

83 Borash, Ben

98 Meaden, Jonathon

Macalester – 302

27 Boranian, Chris

49 Doherty, James

50 Grant, Spencer

81 Johnson, Adrian

95 Ebner, Nolan

I couldn't post the whole results, classes, etc. But there are a few things I noticed while doing this. Gustavus may not do too well this year, but they are, assuming their athletes remain healthy and continue to improve, assured success for the next 3 years. They have a deep freshman class that has already been handed the reigns to the team. Saint John's has only one more year before they undergo major rebuilding mode. Burgstahler graduates this year, and the rest of their top 7 will be seniors next year. After that is a steep, steep drop-off. Next year will be a good year for them, but after that it could be the basement.. St. Olaf remains very deep. They are assured a top 2 placing for the next two years. Carleton is very talented up top. They will be more than fine when DCG graduates. However, unless they get another stellar freshman class, they will have a problem with having a 5th man for the next few years.

ehem, pardon me. St Olaf ranked higher than unranked carlting? Speaks for itself. Checkmate atheists.

I would personally say Olaf beats Carleton. At the end of the day, they have such an incredible amount of depth that there’s no way they won’t win. Also, Carleton is putting a lot of weight on their two talented freshmen, and historically speaking, I don’t know of many freshmen in college that perform well in championship season.

Tris dodge doesn’t historically have very consistent races either. If even one of their guys chokes, there’s no way Olaf won’t beat them.

It’d be nice to see somebody else win conference, but it’s pretty unlikely. I could honestly see Carleton freshmen choking to the point that they slip into third.

Olaf>Carleton wrote:

I would personally say Olaf beats Carleton. At the end of the day, they have such an incredible amount of depth that there’s no way they won’t win. Also, Carleton is putting a lot of weight on their two talented freshmen, and historically speaking, I don’t know of many freshmen in college that perform well in championship season.

Tris dodge doesn’t historically have very consistent races either. If even one of their guys chokes, there’s no way Olaf won’t beat them.

It’d be nice to see somebody else win conference, but it’s pretty unlikely. I could honestly see Carleton freshmen choking to the point that they slip into third.

Wouldn't it be crazy if somehow Saint John's swindles their way to 2nd for a third year in a row??

They are the best overachieving team I've seen in the past decade. That said, all good things must come to an end.5th place?