I'm almost speechless: VP at Nike thinks the odds are greater than 30% that sub-2 happens

Err, why isn't it just 50%? It either happens, or it doesn't, 1 in 2.

hermes link ice blue mink wrote:

Dumb Wigins wrote:

You are an idiot to think they will come anywhere within 2 minutes of 2 hourd.

Book marking this and all the others like it...

LOL, you're going to need more cloud storage space if you're bookmarking all those who know this is not humanly possible. Add me to your list please.

I think 30% is a pretty good estimate - why do you think that is crazy?

Would you feel differently if he said he felt they had a 70% chance of failure?

wejo wrote:

People are debating different things.

If these shoes have revolutionized how people run, then it might be possible. Otherwise it's not.

If they have revolutionized things then the technology should be given to the other companies or they should be banned.

It's not sport if you only win because you have access to a piece of equipment that no one else has. And for the first time I've summarized what aspect of this I don't like.

Nearly everyone agrees improving the drafting, the turns, the weather doesn't put us at 2 hours. So the only debate is does it come down to a piece of equipment no one else has.

This is head scratcher at best.

Yes it boils down to a pice of equipment no one else has, most breakthroughs in development of any new ideas for a product is just that. What we are about to witness is the change in philosophy of finally getting a footwear product in the market that can actually help you be more efficient and faster. This so called racing flat is just the tip of the iceberg of what will eventually be rolled out into training shoes, basketball shoes on and on. Yes we will have access.

Our sport of running is a bit backwards in its ability to create shoes beyond giving us superior cushioning ,weight reduction and breathable uppers.

Trust me, every other brand is now looking at this technology and will look on how to implement something similar down the road.

You guys realize this is just a publicity stunt for their new shoes and you are all falling for this...right?

It worked!

You're Duped wrote:

You guys realize this is just a publicity stunt for their new shoes and you are all falling for this...right?

It worked!

^^^^ THIS GUY KNOWS WHAT'S UP.

Also, these shoes aren't even revolutionary. Have you bothered reading up on them? They're evolutionary at best and probably not even that much. They're controlling a huge number of other factors too; the shoe's are just one element and probably not huge. If they succeed or even get close, those $250 shoes are going to FLY off of the shelves. And we'll see how many people get major and unexpected PRs in them. (Hint: Not many.)

That' almost as good a chance as Trump had of getting elected going into election day.

Er... wrote:

How exactly is this different from, say, Berlin? Getting the drinks from a moped will help but other than that I think you're way overestimating the supposed advantages.

[quote]dasasdfa wrote:

We have a pretty optimal course. We have a phalanx of pacers. There will be no tactics. [Quote]

Lets look at the splits @ berlin in 2016 for Bekele (easy google)

Pace WR-pace diff. WR-split

1 2:41 2:41 1:53:13 2:55 – 0:14

2 5:38 2:57 1:58:51 5:50 – 0:12

3 8:32 2:54 2:00:01 8:44 – 0:12

4 11:24 2:52 2:00:15 11:39 – 0:15

5 14:19 14:19 2:55 2:00:49 14:34 – 0:15

6 17:16 2:57 2:01:26 17:29 – 0:13

7 20:13 2:57 2:01:50 20:24 – 0:11

8 23:08 2:55 2:02:01 23:19 – 0:11

9 26:02:00 2:54 2:02:03 26:13:00 – 0:11

10 28:59:00 14:40 2:57 2:02:18 29:08:00 – 0:09

11 31:53:00 2:54 2:02:18 32:03:00 – 0:10

12 34:55:00 3:02 2:02:47 34:58:00 – 0:03

13 37:54:00 2:59 2:03:01 37:53:00 + 0:01

14 40:49:00 2:55 2:03:01 40:48:00 + 0:01

15 43:36:00 14:37 2:47 2:02:39 43:42:00 – 0:06

16 46:30:00 2:54 2:02:38 46:37:00 – 0:07

17 49:22:00 2:52 2:02:32 49:32:00 – 0:10

18 52:14:00 2:52 2:02:27 52:27:00 – 0:13

19 55:08:00 2:54 2:02:26 55:22:00 – 0:14

20 58:00:00 14:24 2:52 2:02:22 58:17:00 – 0:17

21 1:00:53 2:53 2:02:20 1:01:11 – 0:18

HM 1:00:11 2:02:22 1:01:29 – 0:19

22 1:03:51 2:58 2:02:28 1:04:06 – 0:15

23 1:06:49 2:58 2:02:35 1:07:01 – 0:12

24 1:09:49 3:00 2:02:45 1:09:56 – 0:07

25 1:12:46 14:46 2:57 2:02:49 1:12:51 – 0:05

26 1:15:44 2:58 2:02:54 1:15:46 – 0:02

27 1:18:44 3:00 2:03:03 1:18:40 + 0:04

28 1:21:43 2:59 2:03:09 1:21:35 + 0:08

29 1:24:36 2:53 2:03:06 1:24:30 + 0:06

30 1:27:25 14:39 2:49 2:02:57 1:27:25 0:00

31 1:30:20 2:55 2:02:57 1:30:20 0:00

32 1:33:15 2:55 2:02:57 1:33:15 0:00

33 1:36:08 2:53 2:02:55 1:36:09 – 0:01

34 1:39:02 2:54 2:02:54 1:39:04 – 0:02

35 1:41:55 14:30 2:53 2:02:52 1:41:59 – 0:04

36 1:44:56 3:01 2:02:59 1:44:54 + 0:02

37 1:47:54 2:58 2:03:03 1:47:49 + 0:05

38 1:50:53 2:59 2:03:07 1:50:44 + 0:09

39 1:53:52 2:59 2:03:12 1:53:38 + 0:14

40 1:56:54 14:59 3:02 2:03:19 1:56:33 + 0:21

41 1:59:45 2:51 2:03:14 1:59:28 + 0:17

42 2:02:33 2:48 2:03:07 2:02:23 + 0:10

42.195 2:03:03 6:09 0:30 2:03:03 2:02:57 + 0:06

You have splits from 2:41 to 3:00. How much faster would they have been running steady 2:54s

Or look at Kipchoges london race (ignoring any course cases that cause speed changeds like downhills):

14:16/14:21/14:40/14:54/14:29/14:34/14:54

Not exactly even.

And if you look at the videos, the elite guys spend a lot of time in the last half of the race facing the wind.

Does all this stuff add up to 3 mins? Who knows. The point is that this isn't a marathon like the ones we are used to. It could be that in these type of situations everyone runs 90s faster. Then we are debating if shoes and Kipchoge can find another 90s.

Personally I wish they would have laid out a 1.5k syntehic track optimized for distance running. And if they were really crazy they would have set it up with a tail wind one way and the headwind being blocked:) Think Boston times on the tail wind days. And yes that would have made this even more of a stunt than it already is.

dasasdfa wrote:

And if they were really crazy they would have set it up with a tail wind one way and the headwind being blocked:) Think Boston times on the tail wind days. And yes that would have made this even more of a stunt than it already is.

They're going to have a pace car. Why not a car following behind rigged up with whatever kinds of fans they use in wind simulation tunnels? I'm not sure that's feasible or possible, but if anyone has the capital to put it together it's Nike... This whole thing being as ridiculous it is, I agree that they should have pulled out all the stops.

Pacers won't make a bit of difference after an athlete blows up, which will happen somewhere after 25km. Will the pacers purposely slow down as well?

As for the perfect marathon setup Dubai, London or Berlin probably comes very close and still I don't remember someone splitting a sub 61 let alone a 59 high.

As good as Kipchoge is, I think we all should come down to planet earth.

rojo wrote:

That quote blows my mind. I mean we aren't anywhere close to a sub-2. It's just not going to happen unless those shoes indeed are "cheater's shoes" as JK said.

Wait. So you agree that shoes can be crafted in a way to produce sub two?

Thanks for posting those splits. Great information to chew on.

Your question though, "How much faster would they have been running steady 2:54s ?" raises one of the key issues that I don't think we've seen discussed much: is even pace always going to produce the fastest results? On paper I guess the answer is Yes, but we all know that a lot can happen in a marathon. People experience bad patches where they just feel rough for a few miles or more--stomach issues, muscle cramps, exhaustion. And often we can get through these and get back on pace.

Nike is planning for these guys to run like metronomes but what happens if at 15k one of the three isn't feeling it and drops back for a bit? Will some pacers stay with him and try to work him back up to the lead group like a domestique pulling a team leader back to the peleton in cycling? To do that they'd have to be running even faster than sub-2 pace, so it seems like anyone who has an off day or a bad patch is done for.

And do we really know that running exactly on pace for this distance is the best plan? When the course was announced and we talked about elevation some people argued--frequently with anecdotal information--that a slightly hilly course was probably preferable to a dead flat one because of the opportunity to offer a slight variation in the muscles you're using or how you're using them. Might a variation in pace over the course of two hours be preferable over 2:54s x 42.2?

was at the meet wrote:

This isn't a real attempt at anything. Winning this is better than flying one of those red bull homemade airplanes the furthest off a ramp but is in the same category. I'm surprised it's gotten so much free press on this site.

Churkle Schumrr wrote:

You don't have to love what they do but the childish derision of the attempt is beyond pale especially for Kellogg

You mean the kind of thing more people are interested in than T&F?

What do you expect him to say?

0 chance? That would not be good for this marketing ploy.

100% chance? Just as stupid.

Trackbot! Optimize marathon 882 882 886 866 872 870 849 882 388

Optimized time for 122:57.0 42195.0m based on even pacing:

114:07.40

I am a bot. Info: habs.sdf.org/trackbot

TrackBot wrote:

Optimized time for 122:57.0 42195.0m based on even pacing:

114:07.40

I am a bot. Info: habs.sdf.org/trackbot

there you have it folks, they're gonna run 1:54

wejo wrote:

People are debating different things.

If these shoes have revolutionized how people run, then it might be possible. Otherwise it's not.

If they have revolutionized things then the technology should be given to the other companies or they should be banned.

It's not sport if you only win because you have access to a piece of equipment that no one else has. And for the first time I've summarized what aspect of this I don't like.

Nearly everyone agrees improving the drafting, the turns, the weather doesn't put us at 2 hours. So the only debate is does it come down to a piece of equipment no one else has.

Sorry, I still think people are underestimating the effect of drafting, especially if it's really like some people described with a pace car and billboard a few feet in front of the runners. There is significant savings there.

If you think Kipchoge is a 2:02:00-2:02:30 athlete on a great day, and I think 2:02:00 is fair when you consider a few seconds will be saved not stopping for bottles, then 1.5% savings for drafting gets you almost on 2:00:00.

Tucker does make a good point that it's possible the effects of drafting would be impacted by a change in how you feel based on wind over the body...but it doesn't seem to be a big issue for cyclists. There aren't noticeable differences in power output doing a TT with 30mph of wind versus climbing a double digit gradient in the peleton.

Bottom line is if you assume:

Kipchoge is a 2:02:30 guy on a great day

15-30s are shaved from not having to run over and grab bottles

Then you you need a fraction over 1.5% savings to get to 2:00:00. That would be 1% from drafting and let's say a shoe that is 0.5% faster (certainly not a cheater shoe imo) and you've got the potential. I find those to be not unreasonable numbers.

For me that puts it into the category of "greater than infinitesimal chance it happens". It's a marathon, you've only got one guy with a realistic shot, and a much has to go right. That said the odds are still highly unfavorable just because so much has to go right for Kipchoge to have a perfect day.

If only there was a way to know Kipchoge was going to be on a great one. If I knew that I'd be happy to take 50/50 odds on sub 2.

WINNER!!!! wrote:

You're Duped wrote:

You guys realize this is just a publicity stunt for their new shoes and you are all falling for this...right?

It worked!

^^^^ THIS GUY KNOWS WHAT'S UP.

Also, these shoes aren't even revolutionary. Have you bothered reading up on them? They're evolutionary at best and probably not even that much. They're controlling a huge number of other factors too; the shoe's are just one element and probably not huge. If they succeed or even get close, those $250 shoes are going to FLY off of the shelves. And we'll see how many people get major and unexpected PRs in them. (Hint: Not many.)

seriously... regardless of your own thoughts, obviously the reps from the company are going to talk it up as possible, otherwise it wouldn't be happening. i'd be dumbfounded if he said they have a 1% chance or something. i still don't get why people are hating so much... regardless of anything else, it has drummed up a whole bunch of press and excitement and will be good for the sport. put it in the context of the experiment that it is and i think it's fantastic