I'm almost speechless: VP at Nike thinks the odds are greater than 30% that sub-2 happens

Enough drugs and it will happen.

Better not get a real job, rojo.

You have never worked in corporate America so i can see how you are surprised. But be honest among the Nike haters like you and Tucker and Magness there's a lot of group think going on as well.

By the way is Kellogg a child?

You and most people are falling into the trap of thinking that this is a normal marathon like berlin or london and using those times as a reference. It isn't. This is an optimized time trial of the likes we have never seen in professional marathoning. We have a pretty optimal course. We have a phalanx of pacers. There will be no tactics. Who the heck knows what a fast marathon in those conditions in.

And yeah maybe Nike has come up with shoes that make you 2% faster which isn't out of the realm of possibility. And before you call them cheating shoes, how much faster do you think the average 2017 spike track shoe is compared to one from say 1917?

I have no clue what the odds are. I am guessing nike has a lot better numbers (i.e. maybe they have measure kipchoge under normal circumenstance versus aided and his lactate/hr/... are low enough to suggest that running 3% faster is possible ).

I just hope they have good weather and pacing and really go for it. I want to see them hit 18 miles at 2 hour pace (A 58:30 HM should be able to run that and I expect kipchoge could do that if he peaked for a race) as see what happens. I don't want to see some 2:02 race from them running 61/61:)

“I have always thought we had a 30% chance because there are so many factors beyond our control. But as we have got closer, I have started to think the odds are much higher. The confidence is contagious. None of our three athletes think it is impossible. We are shooting for history.”

That quote blows my mind. I mean we aren't anywhere close to a sub-2. It's just not going to happen unless those shoes indeed are "cheater's shoes" as JK said.

The idea that a VP of a multi billion company thinks it might happen blows my mind. You know how people complain that everyone in the White House is a 'yes man' and the President never hears what he should, I guess the same is true in corporate America.

PS. If it does happen, I think the easiest way to test the shoes is to let an adidas athlete where them in a major.

Quote comes from a nice Sean Ingle article.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2017/may/04/nike-monza-marathon-eliud-kipchoge

Churkle Schumrr wrote:

You have never worked in corporate America so i can see how you are surprised. But be honest among the Nike haters like you and Tucker and Magness there's a lot of group think going on as well.

I've worked for enough people to know the "say whatever the boss wants you to say" pressure is big. I didn't mean for it to come across as some novel experiment.

It amazes me that we are viewed as Nike haters simply because we don't love everything they do. We've probably defended Paula Radcliffe more than anyone in the world.

rojo wrote:

Churkle Schumrr wrote:

You have never worked in corporate America so i can see how you are surprised. But be honest among the Nike haters like you and Tucker and Magness there's a lot of group think going on as well.

I've worked for enough people to know the "say whatever the boss wants you to say" pressure is big. I didn't mean for it to come across as some novel experiment.

It amazes me that we are viewed as Nike haters simply because we don't love everything they do. We've probably defended Paula Radcliffe more than anyone in the world.

You don't have to love what they do but the childish derision of the attempt is beyond pale especially for Kellogg

An employee providing press quotes most likely works in communications, at the very least is affiliated with the event. Rojos preference is the equivalent of Clinton's press secretary saying the week of the election they don't expect to win the presidency.

You are an idiot to think they will come anywhere within 2 minutes of 2 hourd.

It's equivalent to a 57:48 HM. It's doable. They aren't racing. They are setting up shop and eliminating the energy losses as much as they can from air, heat, a course that is too flat (doesn't cycle the muscles/fascia in the same fashion so they fatigue slightly more than on a barely rolling course), ideal hydration/nutrition. The shoes are the least impactful part of the whole circus. More than likely they have no significant impact on the day of the race.

Runners are still behind cyclists and swimmers when it comes to optimization. Aerodynamics play a huge role, along with the other things stated above. A 57:48 HM in an optimized environment such as the one Nike has setup is more like a 59:low HM. It can be done and when it is done the sport of running is going to get a lot more technically advanced than it currently is, which isn't going to be a good thing for the sport. For instance, if you are top amateur and don't have access to the proper equipment then you simply can not compete at the top. Most sports accept this as part of the game. Running is still a somewhat pure sport because you don't need big money or connections to be one of the best in the world.

If we are doing this thing lets do it right.

Downhill course. Wind aided. Mavricks style. Find a straight downhill road. Santa Anna wind come. You show up & run.

Or a mobile wind rubble fan. Pushes them down the road.

Dumb Wigins wrote:

You are an idiot to think they will come anywhere within 2 minutes of 2 hourd.

Book marking this and all the others like it...

What do you want a VP at Nike to say? "Sure, we're giving it our best shot, but we all know it'll be nowhere near sub-two?" He's trying to market the event to people, not err on the side of caution.It's just like a boxer's manager saying XYZ-boxer will knock his opponent out cold in the first round - it's almost certainly not going to happen, but if you tell fans it'll be 12 rounds of mediocre boxing followed by a narrow points decision, it's not going to get them tuning in.

This isn't a real attempt at anything. Winning this is better than flying one of those red bull homemade airplanes the furthest off a ramp but is in the same category. I'm surprised it's gotten so much free press on this site.

Churkle Schumrr wrote:

You don't have to love what they do but the childish derision of the attempt is beyond pale especially for Kellogg

If your child comes to you and says he wanna be a sub 2 marathoner - I'd say the first thing you should do is to find him a coach that thinks he can help him do just that and avoid all others. Shoot for the stars, reach the treetops.

rojo wrote:

PS. If it does happen, I think the easiest way to test the shoes is to let an adidas athlete where them in a major.

*wear

Please wire $50 to my Western Union account.

if it happens and you are so worried about the shoes, we should do what the do in every other major sport - inspect the equipment. Congratulate, confiscate, and cut them open for the world to see.

kjhg wrote:

if it happens and you are so worried about the shoes, we should do what the do in every other major sport - inspect the equipment. Congratulate, confiscate, and cut them open for the world to see.

It's not that simple. We know what's in them. We just don't know if they follow the rules for being legal.

People are debating different things.

If these shoes have revolutionized how people run, then it might be possible. Otherwise it's not.

If they have revolutionized things then the technology should be given to the other companies or they should be banned.

It's not sport if you only win because you have access to a piece of equipment that no one else has. And for the first time I've summarized what aspect of this I don't like.

Nearly everyone agrees improving the drafting, the turns, the weather doesn't put us at 2 hours. So the only debate is does it come down to a piece of equipment no one else has.

wejo wrote:

If they have revolutionized things then the technology should be given to the other companies or they should be banned.

Are you a communist?