I have a fair sense of ability off experience/tools
i'd estimate the pasty-faced lass' current
outdoor
line of fit is ~
54.50 / 1'57.00 ->
2'29.47
3'52.98
5'18.94
8'15.96
14'23.44
30'26.89
I'd ignore distances above 1500 as that is her "hitting zone" & she runs 2k/3k/5k/10k off 1500 training meaning she can never hope to run those times off her "1500 training" no matter how much/good
( the 2k - 10k times require her endurance to "last" "perfectly" to all those of off 1500 training
the 10k estimate may explain it best
I doubt she coud run better than 31'00 - 31'30 currently off 1500 training, so apply same logic to undermine 5k/3k/2k estimates )
"smart mileage"
she runs with her hard studying
she certainly right now coud run 3'52+ in a "perfect" outdoor 1500, but that isn't saying much as kipyegon was definitely in as quick a shape in rio & genze in her 3'50-flat-wr wouda been 3'48-flat/low in "perfect" race
the pasty-face can win 1500 gold in london unless kipyegon turn up in rio shape but the 5k is stoopid ask even with tired ayana after maybe a 29'30 - 29'45 in her legs as there will still be numerous africans capable of 14'20 - 14'25 that day & the gals don't seem to have been turning up in majors as have been by mo, already
catastrophied