Put me down for 306 for Biden with dems taking the senate and graham holding onto SC.
Put me down for 306 for Biden with dems taking the senate and graham holding onto SC.
L L wrote:
The Barrett confirmation was fine as process.
The hypocrisy of blocking Garland is the big issue.
I thinks Republicans have effectively amended the Constitution to portray that in order for a Supreme Court Justice to be confirmed from this point forward, both the President and the majority of the Senate must be of the same party.
Regarding the Wisconsin poll -
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-that-new-wisconsin-poll-that-has-biden-way-ahead/Biden gets TX: EC 418
Just a hunch.
Alan
Racket wrote:
agip wrote:
Here's what I have right now for the krew.
Feel free to post your predictions and add new markets if you wish. And changes accepted through 11:59 PM November 2.
I'll try to post the collected wisdom a few times per day.
Electoral College
LL: Biden 413-125
Flagpole: Biden 334
Agip: Biden 289
SC Senator:
LL: Harrison
Agip: Graham
Senate:
????
Biden at 289 would be beyond unprecedented in polling error. It would make 2016 look like a firecracker. But I guess it's technically possible
Actually I take this back - 289 isn't that farfetched
Racket wrote:
agip wrote:
Here's what I have right now for the krew.
Feel free to post your predictions and add new markets if you wish. And changes accepted through 11:59 PM November 2.
I'll try to post the collected wisdom a few times per day.
Electoral College
LL: Biden 413-125
Flagpole: Biden 334
Agip: Biden 289
SC Senator:
LL: Harrison
Agip: Graham
Senate:
????
Biden at 289 would be beyond unprecedented in polling error. It would make 2016 look like a firecracker. But I guess it's technically possible
I may change that as we get closer.
Current thesis: I don't see Biden winning anything south of VA.
L L wrote:
The Barrett confirmation was fine as process.
The hypocrisy of blocking Garland is the big issue.
I thinks Republicans have effectively amended the Constitution to portray that in order for a Supreme Court Justice to be confirmed from this point forward, both the President and the majority of the Senate must be of the same party.
I'd add that this effectively extends to the entire federal judiciary, not just the Supreme Court.
It's a serious problem for a functioning democracy that the presidency, the senate, and the federal judiciary are currently controlled by a minority of the electorate.
highhoppingworm wrote:
?? They aren't supporting or not supporting her based on her credentials. They are standing against the very fact that her confirmation was brought forward in the first place... remember how Republicans blocked Garland?
You consistently litter the world with partial falsehoods that obscure the animus of a given situation. It is either purposefully deceitful or you simply have a poor comprehension of nuanced events.
Here is my take on some of the various personality types here:
Sally Vix - Per above, likely not very smart but asserts things really forcefully.
Rigged for Hillary & Ghost - Literally wack job conspiracy theorists. Also consistently straight up wrong.
Flagpole - Not the sharpest knife in the drawer but also not the absolute dullest. Obviously has some cringeworthy views on things like what constitutes manhood and "high class" behavior but generally respectful unless really pushed. Can put together a coherent thought.
L L - Seems pretty spot on most of the time.
Trollminator - Extremely effective at trolling Sally/Rigged/Ghost etc.
The smartest regular poster on this whole site is flagpole. From personal finance to training and beyond. No one is really even close. That's just the truth.
Update!
Electoral College
LL: Biden 413-125
Flagpole: Biden 334 Joe
Agip: Biden 289 Joe
Runningart2004: Biden 418
Highhoppingworm: Biden 306
Senate Control:
Flagpole: D
Count Chocula: D
Highhoppingworm: D
SC Senator:
LL: D
Agip: R
Flagpole: R
Count Chocula: D
Highhoppingworm: R
KY Senator:
Flagpole: R
AZ Senator
Count Chocula: D
CO Senator
Count Chocula: D
ME Senator:
Count Chocula: D
NC Senator:
Count Chocula: D
GA Senator Regular (Perdue/Ossoff):
Count Chocula: D
IA Senator:
Count Chocula: D
Alabama Senator:
Count Chocula; R
House Control
Flagpole: Ds increase seats
L L wrote:
People need to understand that Trump has a chance and prepare for that as a possible reality.
Yes, an 11% chance is an 11% chance. That's not low enough to make me feel good about things.
I'm more worried about this election than I was in 2016. Even though president antichrist has less chance of winning, the consequences would be even more devastating to our nation and to the world.
L L wrote:
The Barrett confirmation was fine as process.
The hypocrisy of blocking Garland is the big issue.
I thinks Republicans have effectively amended the Constitution to portray that in order for a Supreme Court Justice to be confirmed from this point forward, both the President and the majority of the Senate must be of the same party.
Yep.
But, should one party amass enough power to codify this, or an alternative, they OUGHT to do so. I'd kinda like to go the remaining 30 years or so of my life and never hear about "norms" regarding any very consequential governance issue.
If Trump has taught us anything useful, the fact that our system has WAY more "holes" than most of us would have thought is certainly one of them (stating that "No one is above the law" should be at least a misdemeanor until a LOT of this stuff is fixed....and no, I'm not holding my breath!).
L L wrote:
Agip, you want my call for the election?
Biden wins with 413 electoral votes to Trump's 125.
No faithless electors.
He'd have to get Ohio, Georgia and Texas plus hang onto the states he's leading in now.
There is a chance he could become the first president elected since 1960 without carrying Ohio.
It would be weird to have a potential landslide win without Ohio.
And Lindsey loses in South Carolina. That guy is desperate right now.
Lindsey unfortunately got a life line from turkey neck... he might pull off a win.
L L wrote:
The Barrett confirmation was fine as process.
The hypocrisy of blocking Garland is the big issue.
I thinks Republicans have effectively amended the Constitution to portray that in order for a Supreme Court Justice to be confirmed from this point forward, both the President and the majority of the Senate must be of the same party.
I agree completely. While I think Barrett isn't really qualified, the Republicans have every right to seat her and in fact a duty to seat someone. Garland should have had the same opportunity of course.
Somehow the SC needs to be made apolitical. I do not know how to do that, but right now things are not good (even before Barrett).
L L wrote:
The Barrett confirmation was fine as process.
The hypocrisy of blocking Garland is the big issue.
I thinks Republicans have effectively amended the Constitution to portray that in order for a Supreme Court Justice to be confirmed from this point forward, both the President and the majority of the Senate must be of the same party.
It will be interesting to see what happens if 1) Trump gets re-elected, 2) the Dems take the Senate, and 3) a SC vacancy opens up next year.
Do the Dems sit on Trump's nomination for 4 years? That's basically the precedent that Mitch McConnell has laid down.
Gina wrote:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/white-supremacist-group-training-violence-004347548.htmlBut but but he can’t help, who adores him.
I'm no "operator," or even close, but....one can console oneself with the fact that most of these idiots don't have the knowledge OR physical ability to engage in any meaningful "training" !!
But boy, they sure can stock up on all that cool gear ! (that won't save them from the COVID, massive heart attacks, etc.)
johnny99 wrote:
L L wrote:
The Barrett confirmation was fine as process.
The hypocrisy of blocking Garland is the big issue.
I thinks Republicans have effectively amended the Constitution to portray that in order for a Supreme Court Justice to be confirmed from this point forward, both the President and the majority of the Senate must be of the same party.
It will be interesting to see what happens if 1) Trump gets re-elected, 2) the Dems take the Senate, and 3) a SC vacancy opens up next year.
Do the Dems sit on Trump's nomination for 4 years? That's basically the precedent that Mitch McConnell has laid down.
yeah I think that supreme court seats will go unfilled, next time the WH and Senate are from different parties. The court will shrink.
The moonshot is a change in structure...there are many proposals on the table to end lifetime tenure and allow one pick per 4 year prez term. Would be so much better.
Don't know why nobody mentioned this yet. The DOW is down 850 points right now. This obviously favors Biden.
agip wrote:
Here's what I have right now for the krew.
Feel free to post your predictions and add new markets if you wish. And changes accepted through 11:59 PM November 2.
I'll try to post the collected wisdom a few times per day.
Electoral College
LL: Biden 413-125
Flagpole: Biden 334
Agip: Biden 289
SC Senator:
LL: Harrison
Agip: Graham
Senate:
????
Agip, I don't have time, but we should come up with a prediction template standardized to 538 and assign points for matching real outcomes. It should be in a few layers:
1. Presidential contest: pick winner and # EC votes / pick winner of at-risk states / pick general election winner and margin for fun
2. Senate race: pick total seats / pick winners from at-risk seats
3. Congressional race: pick total seats
I'll see if I can throw something together in a sharable format
Fat hurts wrote:
L L wrote:
People need to understand that Trump has a chance and prepare for that as a possible reality.
Yes, an 11% chance is an 11% chance. That's not low enough to make me feel good about things.
I'm more worried about this election than I was in 2016. Even though president antichrist has less chance of winning, the consequences would be even more devastating to our nation and to the world.
I am also more worried about this election than the one in 2016, but not for the reason some might think. I did not know the depth of the criminality, incompetence, and cruelty of Trump in 2016, and even if I did know, I could not have then fathomed that he would have so many enablers. It was beyond my imagination in 2016 that someone like William Barr would come in and protect him like he has. I knew Trump was a liar, but the amount of lying about all things big and small...I did not foresee that. I believe nothing is out of bounds for Trump to try to hold onto power. I did NOT think that about him in 2016.
Fat hurts wrote:
Don't know why nobody mentioned this yet. The DOW is down 850 points right now. This obviously favors Biden.
And of course it's being attributed to COVID concerns... thanks trump!
Trollminator wrote:
agip wrote:
Here's what I have right now for the krew.
Feel free to post your predictions and add new markets if you wish. And changes accepted through 11:59 PM November 2.
I'll try to post the collected wisdom a few times per day.
Electoral College
LL: Biden 413-125
Flagpole: Biden 334
Agip: Biden 289
SC Senator:
LL: Harrison
Agip: Graham
Senate:
????
Agip, I don't have time, but we should come up with a prediction template standardized to 538 and assign points for matching real outcomes. It should be in a few layers:
1. Presidential contest: pick winner and # EC votes / pick winner of at-risk states / pick general election winner and margin for fun
2. Senate race: pick total seats / pick winners from at-risk seats
3. Congressional race: pick total seats
I'll see if I can throw something together in a sharable format
outstanding. That would be better, yes.