L L wrote:
I believe Biden will sweep these states.
But four years ago I put up a map where Trump could win 270-268 and really got laughed at by Flagpole.
I didn't say he would probably win, I just showed a path where he could win.
My map didn't have him winning MI or PA.
We were all in shock the next day.
And to remind everyone, this IS 2020.
How could the year go stranger?
Flagpole has been the national laughing stock of LetsRun since at least 2005 - kinda like our own version of Donald Trump in many, many, many ways. So I wouldn't sweat that too much.
As for the polls, any decent model will have things like turnout and various degrees of uncertainty or possible polling error at the state level built into them. I think you're a bit too pessimistic on polling averages like what 538 does. Yes, there's a bit of bullsh!t in it, but there's a lot of rigorous math as well.