L L wrote:
There is less time for voter outreach than usual because people will start to send their in ballots in a few weeks.
Of course swing voters (the few left) will wait until the end.
No one's kicking back.
The arguments over polling is pretty pointless, especially those trying to find polling that agrees with their views.
Trump is totally on defense. Really only trying to guard states he won last time.
And Biden has many paths to victory:
PA, MI, WI were very narrow wins for Trump with third party candidates getting more votes than his margin of victory. Tough for Trump to win any of those this time.
Trump is behind in Florida and really can't win without it.
Biden win combos:
FL & PA
FL & MI
FL & MI
FL & NC
FL & AZ
FL & OH
FL & (you get the picture)
Trump totally blew the Republican hold on Arizona attacking McCain and it even cost them a senate seat - maybe two this fall.
It means Biden can lose Wisconsin, Ohio and Florida and still win.
And Trump can't take his eye off of Georgia, which should be a slam dunk.
There are Democrats on the ground in Texas looking at that as a future swing state if not this time.
US demographics keep changing, and not in the favor of the current version of the Republican party.
No high profile Gary Johnson or Jill Stein taking a lot of votes.
No disdain for Biden they way people carried on about Hillary (who still got 3 million more votes).
No strong economy. Unemployment is bad.
Trump was tried for abuse of power and obstruction of justice.
He has money laundering charges pending.
Several in his circle have been convicted of crimes of fraud and corruption.
No kicking back.
Florida will be filled with attack ads on Trump.
And I also believe there will be a bigger youth vote than usual.
There is a large mount of young voter age anti Trump social media going on that the main media is not picking up on.
I agree that it's concerning that so many Trump supporters are unmovable.
His 5th Avenue comment rings true. He can act criminally without losing support.
I just think his base his too small and people are highly, highly motivated and enthusiastic to vote him out.