Trumpettes are NOT Americans!
Trumpettes are NOT Americans!
cold water wrote:
Quote from the article:
“Come November, I expect Trump to lose the popular vote by up to 16 million ballots. Despite this, he will secure a second term if he wins just 270 of the 538 Electoral College votes. (In 2016, he won 304.) Suddenly, his approval rating of 43 per cent doesn't seem quite so fatal.”
Worth reading the whole thing. Can anyone explain why this take is wrong?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8393339/Can-Americas-divisive-President-survive-Novembers-election-Reporter-says-hes-set-win.html
That take is not wrong. The election is a coin toss at this point.
seattle prattle wrote:
P wrote:
I'm with Racket on this one. I hope all Americans are very nervous about the results of November's election. I sure am.
With the PPP expiring in August, unemployment will likely spike quite a bit going into the election, and that's got to be a major negative for Trump - one that promises to play out painfully slowly.
The PPP loan program ends June 30th, but companies have until December 31st to rehire workers. There's still funds available after the second round was approved so I presume most businesses that needed a loan have been able to get it by this point. Furloughed workers are coming back and many service industry jobs are actively hiring to meet demands they're seeing.
And anyone suggesting the unemployment numbers from BLS have ever been "fudged" should be laughed heavily and then dismissed.
Meanwhile FOX is almost openly arguing that killing black people is good for the country. They were gloating about historical market returns one week after various notorious slayings of black people. Not to mention the blatant racism and dog whistling, for example always calling President Obama “Hussein” to stir anti-Muslim associations, declaring that immigrants make our country poorer, dirtier and more dangerous, calling white supremacy a conspiracy theory, calling protesters “violent thugs”, a clear anti-black association, and on and on. They feed on division and hate.
agip wrote:
Smorbun wrote:
Yes. That's what he was talking about. If you ever think even for a second that Trump said something helpful or correct in any way, I advise you to do some research, because he is always wrong and never helpful.
It’s not at all what Trump was talking about.
Dems, please please please do not become what you loathe. Do not pass on false information.
Do not lie like Trump lies.
Smorbun is either lying or is misinformed.
Ok agip (and others), haven't been here in awhile but wanted to comment on this one-
Interestingly (surprisingly to some like "Rigged" I am sure), when I read about this controversy, I assumed/believed (like agip) that the media and dems blew it by attributing, disingenuously, Trump's contention that it was a "great day for George Floyd" to the jobs report. This was because:
A) I thought, I suppose again surprisingly, that there was 'no way Trump is THIS stupid, THIS racist, THIS tone deaf, THIS idiotic. No way.' I know, I know, I should know better. But I continue for some reason to assume he is not 100% insane and racist and stupid.
B) I only saw the immediate context of the quote, dealing with a need for "Equal justice under the law" and that this " must mean that every American receives equal treatment in every encounter with law enforcement regardless of race, color, gender or creed. They have to receive fair treatment from law enforcement. They have to receive it. We all saw what happened last week. We can’t let that happen." Ok, I said, THAT is what he talking about. SHAME on the media for screwing this up! (is what I thought).
But then I said.....wait a second, could they have blown it that badly?
Nope. Read the whole speech.
https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts/donald-trump-press-conference-transcript-on-jobs-reportRead the immediate context. WHY would this be a great day for George Floyd? What happened on this day that would make him think it was a "great day for our country" and " a great day for him" ? NOTHING that I can think of. Because Trump said something nice about a need for equal justice? Words are cheap, so nope. Did he just sign some big bill that would help in that goal of "equal justice" ? Nope, he was signing the "Paycheck Protection Program Flexibility Act." Were new charges brought in the case against the officers who killed him ? Again, no, that was the day before (and Trump referenced nothing about that anyway).
So WHAT was sooooo "GREAT" about this day that would make George happy? Nothing. The ONLY possibility is- the great jobs report that Trump just spent the preceding TWENTY minutes talking about, and how "GREAT" it was for the country and the world....and everyone. He also talks about how great this recovery is for "race relations".
So WHY did Trump say that "Hopefully George is looking down right now and saying, “This is a great thing that’s happening for our country.” This is a great day for him. . ??? Because the economy got some good news, and this would help everyone, and help race relations, and help blacks. Yes, that is absolutely what he was trying to say.
IN.....SANE.
Has he drained the swamp yet?
https://www.yahoo.com/huffpost/crew-mark-short-covid-19-pharma-stocks-125812728.html
Thanks, Racket. Additionally, i believe i saw something on the news last night that referenced a 24 week extension to the PPP program.
In any respect, good to know the much needed benefits will not be ending too abruptly.
Tyrone ReXXXing wrote:
agip wrote:
It’s not at all what Trump was talking about.
Dems, please please please do not become what you loathe. Do not pass on false information.
Do not lie like Trump lies.
Smorbun is either lying or is misinformed.
Ok agip (and others), haven't been here in awhile but wanted to comment on this one-
Interestingly (surprisingly to some like "Rigged" I am sure), when I read about this controversy, I assumed/believed (like agip) that the media and dems blew it by attributing, disingenuously, Trump's contention that it was a "great day for George Floyd" to the jobs report. This was because:
A) I thought, I suppose again surprisingly, that there was 'no way Trump is THIS stupid, THIS racist, THIS tone deaf, THIS idiotic. No way.' I know, I know, I should know better. But I continue for some reason to assume he is not 100% insane and racist and stupid.
B) I only saw the immediate context of the quote, dealing with a need for "Equal justice under the law" and that this " must mean that every American receives equal treatment in every encounter with law enforcement regardless of race, color, gender or creed. They have to receive fair treatment from law enforcement. They have to receive it. We all saw what happened last week. We can’t let that happen." Ok, I said, THAT is what he talking about. SHAME on the media for screwing this up! (is what I thought).
But then I said.....wait a second, could they have blown it that badly?
Nope. Read the whole speech.
https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts/donald-trump-press-conference-transcript-on-jobs-reportRead the immediate context. WHY would this be a great day for George Floyd? What happened on this day that would make him think it was a "great day for our country" and " a great day for him" ? NOTHING that I can think of. Because Trump said something nice about a need for equal justice? Words are cheap, so nope. Did he just sign some big bill that would help in that goal of "equal justice" ? Nope, he was signing the "Paycheck Protection Program Flexibility Act." Were new charges brought in the case against the officers who killed him ? Again, no, that was the day before (and Trump referenced nothing about that anyway).
So WHAT was sooooo "GREAT" about this day that would make George happy? Nothing. The ONLY possibility is- the great jobs report that Trump just spent the preceding TWENTY minutes talking about, and how "GREAT" it was for the country and the world....and everyone. He also talks about how great this recovery is for "race relations".
So WHY did Trump say that "Hopefully George is looking down right now and saying, “This is a great thing that’s happening for our country.” This is a great day for him. . ??? Because the economy got some good news, and this would help everyone, and help race relations, and help blacks. Yes, that is absolutely what he was trying to say.
IN.....SANE.
Yeah, some people have defended Trump by pointing out that he didn't directly say that Floyd would have been happy about the jobs report, but the entire speech was a victory lap over the report, there was no other good news and his comments about Floyd can only be interpreted as being inappropriate.
Obviously, someone mentioned to Trump that he should discuss the Floyd sitituation, but he didn't want anything negative to rain on his parade.
Tyrone ReXXXing wrote:
agip wrote:
It’s not at all what Trump was talking about.
Dems, please please please do not become what you loathe. Do not pass on false information.
Do not lie like Trump lies.
Smorbun is either lying or is misinformed.
Ok agip (and others), haven't been here in awhile but wanted to comment on this one-
Interestingly (surprisingly to some like "Rigged" I am sure), when I read about this controversy, I assumed/believed (like agip) that the media and dems blew it by attributing, disingenuously, Trump's contention that it was a "great day for George Floyd" to the jobs report. This was because:
A) I thought, I suppose again surprisingly, that there was 'no way Trump is THIS stupid, THIS racist, THIS tone deaf, THIS idiotic. No way.' I know, I know, I should know better. But I continue for some reason to assume he is not 100% insane and racist and stupid.
B) I only saw the immediate context of the quote, dealing with a need for "Equal justice under the law" and that this " must mean that every American receives equal treatment in every encounter with law enforcement regardless of race, color, gender or creed. They have to receive fair treatment from law enforcement. They have to receive it. We all saw what happened last week. We can’t let that happen." Ok, I said, THAT is what he talking about. SHAME on the media for screwing this up! (is what I thought).
But then I said.....wait a second, could they have blown it that badly?
Nope. Read the whole speech.
https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts/donald-trump-press-conference-transcript-on-jobs-reportRead the immediate context. WHY would this be a great day for George Floyd? What happened on this day that would make him think it was a "great day for our country" and " a great day for him" ? NOTHING that I can think of. Because Trump said something nice about a need for equal justice? Words are cheap, so nope. Did he just sign some big bill that would help in that goal of "equal justice" ? Nope, he was signing the "Paycheck Protection Program Flexibility Act." Were new charges brought in the case against the officers who killed him ? Again, no, that was the day before (and Trump referenced nothing about that anyway).
So WHAT was sooooo "GREAT" about this day that would make George happy? Nothing. The ONLY possibility is- the great jobs report that Trump just spent the preceding TWENTY minutes talking about, and how "GREAT" it was for the country and the world....and everyone. He also talks about how great this recovery is for "race relations".
So WHY did Trump say that "Hopefully George is looking down right now and saying, “This is a great thing that’s happening for our country.” This is a great day for him. . ??? Because the economy got some good news, and this would help everyone, and help race relations, and help blacks. Yes, that is absolutely what he was trying to say.
IN.....SANE.
I don't think it's really possible to produce meaningful context for 99% of what Trump says due to his 3rd grade vocabulary coupled with the public speaking skill of a spaghetti noodle. Deconstructing meaning from what he says is therefore ultimately a fool's errand.
To me, this is just #1516803564381564681530685112 on the list of retarded things he's said. Not much of a news event in my opinion
Racket wrote:
Tyrone ReXXXing wrote:
Ok agip (and others), haven't been here in awhile but wanted to comment on this one-
Interestingly (surprisingly to some like "Rigged" I am sure), when I read about this controversy, I assumed/believed (like agip) that the media and dems blew it by attributing, disingenuously, Trump's contention that it was a "great day for George Floyd" to the jobs report. This was because:
A) I thought, I suppose again surprisingly, that there was 'no way Trump is THIS stupid, THIS racist, THIS tone deaf, THIS idiotic. No way.' I know, I know, I should know better. But I continue for some reason to assume he is not 100% insane and racist and stupid.
B) I only saw the immediate context of the quote, dealing with a need for "Equal justice under the law" and that this " must mean that every American receives equal treatment in every encounter with law enforcement regardless of race, color, gender or creed. They have to receive fair treatment from law enforcement. They have to receive it. We all saw what happened last week. We can’t let that happen." Ok, I said, THAT is what he talking about. SHAME on the media for screwing this up! (is what I thought).
But then I said.....wait a second, could they have blown it that badly?
Nope. Read the whole speech.
https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts/donald-trump-press-conference-transcript-on-jobs-reportRead the immediate context. WHY would this be a great day for George Floyd? What happened on this day that would make him think it was a "great day for our country" and " a great day for him" ? NOTHING that I can think of. Because Trump said something nice about a need for equal justice? Words are cheap, so nope. Did he just sign some big bill that would help in that goal of "equal justice" ? Nope, he was signing the "Paycheck Protection Program Flexibility Act." Were new charges brought in the case against the officers who killed him ? Again, no, that was the day before (and Trump referenced nothing about that anyway).
So WHAT was sooooo "GREAT" about this day that would make George happy? Nothing. The ONLY possibility is- the great jobs report that Trump just spent the preceding TWENTY minutes talking about, and how "GREAT" it was for the country and the world....and everyone. He also talks about how great this recovery is for "race relations".
So WHY did Trump say that "Hopefully George is looking down right now and saying, “This is a great thing that’s happening for our country.” This is a great day for him. . ??? Because the economy got some good news, and this would help everyone, and help race relations, and help blacks. Yes, that is absolutely what he was trying to say.
IN.....SANE.
I don't think it's really possible to produce meaningful context for 99% of what Trump says due to his 3rd grade vocabulary coupled with the public speaking skill of a spaghetti noodle. Deconstructing meaning from what he says is therefore ultimately a fool's errand.
To me, this is just #1516803564381564681530685112 on the list of retarded things he's said. Not much of a news event in my opinion
I think Trump was actually celebrating, for an instant, BLM. Celebrating a focus on equality and justice.
It's crazy but that's what I think Trump was referring to when he thought Floyd would be happy.
Trump is a sales guy and he knows how to play a room.
agip wrote:
Racket wrote:
I don't think it's really possible to produce meaningful context for 99% of what Trump says due to his 3rd grade vocabulary coupled with the public speaking skill of a spaghetti noodle. Deconstructing meaning from what he says is therefore ultimately a fool's errand.
To me, this is just #1516803564381564681530685112 on the list of retarded things he's said. Not much of a news event in my opinion
I think Trump was actually celebrating, for an instant, BLM. Celebrating a focus on equality and justice.
It's crazy but that's what I think Trump was referring to when he thought Floyd would be happy.
Trump is a sales guy and he knows how to play a room.
That's my read, too. Great day for America for several reasons, and I (Trump) have made it so, so vote for me. And yes, unproductive to try to decipher his jumbled messages, and i contend, purposely so.
And just like that, NOBODY is dying from coronavirus in NYC anymore. Has this been fact-checked by Twitter? ???
cold water wrote:
Quote from the article:
“Come November, I expect Trump to lose the popular vote by up to 16 million ballots. Despite this, he will secure a second term if he wins just 270 of the 538 Electoral College votes. (In 2016, he won 304.) Suddenly, his approval rating of 43 per cent doesn't seem quite so fatal.”
Worth reading the whole thing. Can anyone explain why this take is wrong?
I you parse the quoted text, it's two plausible statements, but they are aren't plausibly connected.
"“Come November, I expect Trump to lose the popular vote by up to 16 million ballots." says he may lose the popular vote by about 12.5 percentage points. This is reasonable given that's he's about 10 points down in popular polling.
"Despite this, he will secure a second term if he wins just 270 of the 538 Electoral College votes. " This is the definition of what it takes to win the electoral college, so is true by definition.
What the author doesn't say is that Trump will lose by 16 million votes and still win the electoral college, that is be underwater about 6 times the 2016 margin and still eke out a victory. That may be mathematically possible under some contrived scenario, but not in any scenario that can reasonably happen.
kibitzer wrote:
cold water wrote:
Quote from the article:
“Come November, I expect Trump to lose the popular vote by up to 16 million ballots. Despite this, he will secure a second term if he wins just 270 of the 538 Electoral College votes. (In 2016, he won 304.) Suddenly, his approval rating of 43 per cent doesn't seem quite so fatal.”
Worth reading the whole thing. Can anyone explain why this take is wrong?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8393339/Can-Americas-divisive-President-survive-Novembers-election-Reporter-says-hes-set-win.htmlThat take is not wrong. The election is a coin toss at this point.
Trump's approval rating continues to drop and is now down to 41.6. Since the beginning of April his approval rates have dropped and his disapproval rates have sky rocketed. Its a very strong pattern and Republicans are scared.
Well, now The Gap stands at over twelve percentage points. Approval rating holding pretty firm around 42%, though.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/
corona trump wrote:
kibitzer wrote:
That take is not wrong. The election is a coin toss at this point.
Trump's approval rating continues to drop and is now down to 41.6. Since the beginning of April his approval rates have dropped and his disapproval rates have sky rocketed. Its a very strong pattern and Republicans are scared.
Trump has won no head to head polls vs. Biden. This is unprecedented in the modern polling era and shows what a weak candidate Trump is.
Monkeys typing wrote:
cold water wrote:
Quote from the article:
“Come November, I expect Trump to lose the popular vote by up to 16 million ballots. Despite this, he will secure a second term if he wins just 270 of the 538 Electoral College votes. (In 2016, he won 304.) Suddenly, his approval rating of 43 per cent doesn't seem quite so fatal.”
Worth reading the whole thing. Can anyone explain why this take is wrong?
I you parse the quoted text, it's two plausible statements, but they are aren't plausibly connected.
"“Come November, I expect Trump to lose the popular vote by up to 16 million ballots." says he may lose the popular vote by about 12.5 percentage points. This is reasonable given that's he's about 10 points down in popular polling.
"Despite this, he will secure a second term if he wins just 270 of the 538 Electoral College votes. " This is the definition of what it takes to win the electoral college, so is true by definition.
What the author doesn't say is that Trump will lose by 16 million votes and still win the electoral college, that is be underwater about 6 times the 2016 margin and still eke out a victory. That may be mathematically possible under some contrived scenario, but not in any scenario that can reasonably happen.
Thanks I hadn’t spotted the obvious slight of hand.
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
And just like that, NOBODY is dying from coronavirus in NYC anymore. Has this been fact-checked by Twitter? ???
https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-coronavirus-deaths-confirmed-covid-de-blasio-20200604-a5dfx2l6hvgwlll4vou67zrqla-story.html
“Just like that” - it’s probably the first day in over three months.
Stop embarrassing yourself all of the time.
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
And just like that, NOBODY is dying from coronavirus in NYC anymore. Has this been fact-checked by Twitter? ???
https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-coronavirus-deaths-confirmed-covid-de-blasio-20200604-a5dfx2l6hvgwlll4vou67zrqla-story.html
Just like that huh?
Monkeys typing wrote:
cold water wrote:
Quote from the article:
“Come November, I expect Trump to lose the popular vote by up to 16 million ballots. Despite this, he will secure a second term if he wins just 270 of the 538 Electoral College votes. (In 2016, he won 304.) Suddenly, his approval rating of 43 per cent doesn't seem quite so fatal.”
Worth reading the whole thing. Can anyone explain why this take is wrong?
I you parse the quoted text, it's two plausible statements, but they are aren't plausibly connected.
"“Come November, I expect Trump to lose the popular vote by up to 16 million ballots." says he may lose the popular vote by about 12.5 percentage points. This is reasonable given that's he's about 10 points down in popular polling.
"Despite this, he will secure a second term if he wins just 270 of the 538 Electoral College votes. " This is the definition of what it takes to win the electoral college, so is true by definition.
What the author doesn't say is that Trump will lose by 16 million votes and still win the electoral college, that is be underwater about 6 times the 2016 margin and still eke out a victory. That may be mathematically possible under some contrived scenario, but not in any scenario that can reasonably happen.
I think the author just wanted to highlight that it’s the electoral college votes that matter, by saying it just takes 270 to win regardless of general vote count. If you assume virtually impossible razor thin general vote outcomes across all states with trump coming out ahead, yeah I am sure there could be a gap of +10million general votes. That is just fantasy land stuff though - another 1 percent bigger gap in the general vote against trump, assuming some reasonable distribution of those votes across the board, would likely secure his loss.