Official LRC President Donald J Trump Thread

Ok so March 26 was not a good stand alone day, but there are still some positives.

Italy added a 7th or 8th day to its band of non-growing new cases and daily deaths.

And while around the world daily deaths surged a bit on the 26th, 3 day averages of daily deaths for almost every region were below the daily average growth since I started tracking data 19 days ago. Which implies growth rates have been slowing over time.

The bad news is the US...its high growth rates will start rising global death counts. And France does not seem to have a handle on deaths yet.

But the growth rate is slowing. Here's the broadest way I can show it.

Daily deaths over a five day period.

So the first number is the oldest, showing the change from March 8 til 5 days later. 196%.

The last number is March 21 until 5 days later. 172%.

You can see that the last two days have shown a break in the data - the growth of this thing has slowed. Is still very fast obviously.

196%

204%

253%

193%

227%

217%

267%

198%

259%

200%

192%

220%

176%

172%

Interesting visual look at the data by US county - choose "CDS county-level Map A rate-adjusted 2D map".

https://coronadatascraper.com/#features.json

Yonsinglerct wrote:

Interesting visual look at the data by US county - choose "CDS county-level Map A rate-adjusted 2D map".

https://coronadatascraper.com/#features.json

yeah I wouldn't be the first to point out that the virus has affected blue places far, far more than it has affected trumplandia. WIll help the president.

Although the recession will hurt trumplandia also.

Another nice look at the data.

https://piccolbo.shinyapps.io/covid-19/

The latter has a chart has a tab listing doubling time, 15 day growth projection, and daily growth for states.

Of course, you can use the JSON data from the scraper to create your own visuals as well.

agip wrote:

Yonsinglerct wrote:

Interesting visual look at the data by US county - choose "CDS county-level Map A rate-adjusted 2D map".

https://coronadatascraper.com/#features.json

yeah I wouldn't be the first to point out that the virus has affected blue places far, far more than it has affected trumplandia. WIll help the president.

Although the recession will hurt trumplandia also.

I think it's just a matter of time before it impacts everywhere enough to hurt Trump even within his base. It's going to be hard when he's challenged by his own words like in that ad that was posted pages back.

It is interesting to look at the county maps to see pockets of areas that have been impacted. Small county in AR where 1 in 500 have tested positive, couple of counties in south GA, 82 cases in a county east of Boise, etc.

agip wrote:

ok P - my memory is that you had a long set of dire assertions with the word 'fact' after them...I'll never find it but I'll withdraw if you say my memory is wrong.

According to my memory, P did say "FACT" several times in all caps. However, he did say that these were based on some "if's". That is, these these things will happen "if" we don't do what is needed to gets us off our current trajectory.

The accuracy of P's models are less important than his overall conclusions. P is absolutely correct that we need to shut down the whole country now. We should have shut it down two weeks ago.

Like all exponential threats, the longer you wait, the harder it will be to mitigate the problem. This is true for coronavirus. It is true for the climate crisis.

The questions we need to ask about coronavirus response are:

"Do we want 100,000 dead Americans or do we want 1,000,000 dead Americans?"

"Do we want a recession from shutting down or do we want a depression from not shutting down?"

Seems fairly obvious that both trumpanzees & our number-crunchers view positive tests as a form of “bad news, “ to be spun however they choose.

But it’s not news, it’s just information that people need to survive. You can see why trump would be slow to test.

Fat hurts wrote:

agip wrote:

ok P - my memory is that you had a long set of dire assertions with the word 'fact' after them...I'll never find it but I'll withdraw if you say my memory is wrong.

According to my memory, P did say "FACT" several times in all caps. However, he did say that these were based on some "if's". That is, these these things will happen "if" we don't do what is needed to gets us off our current trajectory.

ok - better said, I'll withdraw if P says my understanding of his post is faulty.

agip wrote:

Yonsinglerct wrote:

Interesting visual look at the data by US county - choose "CDS county-level Map A rate-adjusted 2D map".

https://coronadatascraper.com/#features.json

yeah I wouldn't be the first to point out that the virus has affected blue places far, far more than it has affected trumplandia. WIll help the president.

Although the recession will hurt trumplandia also.

If people living in Trumplandia don't practice social distancing, then the virus will still spread out of control in those areas. It will just happen later.

If you think the virus won't spread in more sparse areas, consider Dougherty county Georgia. It's a fairly isolated county in southwest Georgia. It has a population of 89,500 and already has 164 confirmed cases. They are already shipping patients to alternate hospitals outside the county.

Compare that to the metro Atlanta county where I live. We have over 225,000 in population but only 29 confirmed cases.

Trumplandia will get hit hard because they actually believe Trump's happy talk.

Boris Johnson has it.

Fat hurts wrote:

Boris Johnson has it.

Is he the first head of government to announce a positive test? Prince Charles doesn't count.

I know Bolsonaro allegedly tested negative but circumstantial evidence strongly indicates that he actually had it.

CountChocula wrote:

Fat hurts wrote:

Boris Johnson has it.

Is he the first head of government to announce a positive test? Prince Charles doesn't count.

I know Bolsonaro allegedly tested negative but circumstantial evidence strongly indicates that he actually had it.

Even if Prince Charles did count, he's not even the technical head of state because he is not king yet.

I don't remember any other major head of state who definitely has it. I seem to remember that Merkel has been self-isolating, but I don't think she is positive for the virus.

Joe Blow wrote:

Ciro wrote:

Partisanship aside, this crisis just looks way too big for Trump to handle.

He looks scared, very scared in the moments when he’s not bluffing for the cameras.

https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-donald-trump-arrives-for-a-briefing-on-the-news-photo/1208287364?adppopup=true

In all fairness Joe Biden doesn’t seem up to the task either.

Biden seems better at messaging. And being realistic and truthful.

Here is what Biden wrote in January regarding Trump's preparedness for this:

"To be blunt, I am concerned that the Trump administration’s shortsighted policies have left us unprepared for a dangerous epidemic that will come sooner or later."

Fat hurts wrote:

agip wrote:

yeah I wouldn't be the first to point out that the virus has affected blue places far, far more than it has affected trumplandia. WIll help the president.

Although the recession will hurt trumplandia also.

If people living in Trumplandia don't practice social distancing, then the virus will still spread out of control in those areas. It will just happen later.

If you think the virus won't spread in more sparse areas, consider Dougherty county Georgia. It's a fairly isolated county in southwest Georgia. It has a population of 89,500 and already has 164 confirmed cases. They are already shipping patients to alternate hospitals outside the county.

Compare that to the metro Atlanta county where I live. We have over 225,000 in population but only 29 confirmed cases.

Trumplandia will get hit hard because they actually believe Trump's happy talk.

That's what is going to be interesting about this. One or two people infected in an area can spread it so quickly. Once it has been "contained" in an area, with the exponential spread, it can easily re-infect the area.

We may have to be under social distancing restrictions until we have a vaccine.

Everyone is on a different timeline.

L L wrote:

Joe Blow wrote:

In all fairness Joe Biden doesn’t seem up to the task either.

Biden seems better at messaging. And being realistic and truthful.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HXvXauw9jf8

Here is what Biden wrote in January regarding Trump's preparedness for this:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/01/27/coronavirus-donald-trump-made-us-less-prepared-joe-biden-column/4581710002/

"To be blunt, I am concerned that the Trump administration’s shortsighted policies have left us unprepared for a dangerous epidemic that will come sooner or later."

Well, it's sure as hell not Sanders.

Who else we got?

Cuomo.

Fat hurts wrote:

agip wrote:

yeah I wouldn't be the first to point out that the virus has affected blue places far, far more than it has affected trumplandia. WIll help the president.

Although the recession will hurt trumplandia also.

If people living in Trumplandia don't practice social distancing, then the virus will still spread out of control in those areas. It will just happen later.

If you think the virus won't spread in more sparse areas, consider Dougherty county Georgia. It's a fairly isolated county in southwest Georgia. It has a population of 89,500 and already has 164 confirmed cases. They are already shipping patients to alternate hospitals outside the county.

Compare that to the metro Atlanta county where I live. We have over 225,000 in population but only 29 confirmed cases.

Trumplandia will get hit hard because they actually believe Trump's happy talk.

One thing that is interesting if you look at the county by county map. The ski resort areas in UT, CO, and ID are some of the hardest hit areas.