Official LRC President Donald J Trump Thread

jesseriley wrote:

While the boys bickered, President Pelosi insisted they actually pass some legislation before quitting work Friday. With 90% voting yes, she dragged them through it around 1am.

It’s not called the “emergency socialism-type economic response to coronavirus.” It is that, but it’s called something else.

Mitch sent the Senate home for a 3 day weekend.

agip wrote:

Fat hurts wrote:

Yep. You got it.

but arent' the estimated counts better to go by? I assume that scientists put the estimates together using tried and true methods of extrapolation. Seems that going with the hard count numbers is not the best way to get a picture of the damage of the epidemic.

It's all imperfect data, but it's it's important to compare like with like. Comparing post mortum estimates extrapolated from confirmed cases of H1N1 with confirmed cases of COVID-19 while it hasn't peaked, never mind run its course is an obviously biased perspective.

The better comparison would be with projections of COVID-19 and there are legitimate experts who are convinced that COVID-19 has the potential to be very bad.

P wrote:

Have to ask... wrote:

So you think by 'correcting' someone that you are saving lives?

Look, it's clear you have a firm grasp on math and exponential growth... but like everyone else in the world you do not know the future. You may be right or not... but your predictions are not facts.

You may think you are helping by predicting the apocalypse but in the long run maybe your posts are no better than b wiggins or agips

Reality is better than falsities for dealing with any situation.

One nice thing about this country is that ordinary people have the ability - a rather significant ability - to impact the future. Our elected officials, while notoriously stupid and crooked, do like to hold on to their jobs. A consequence of this is that they actually are rather responsive to direct feedback from their constituents. A dozen phone calls from people who understand what is going on can make the difference between action and delay.

And making those phone calls starts with understanding what is going on.

///

The first step in solving a problem is understanding that you have one.

Well, ok then wrote:

It's all imperfect data, but it's it's important to compare like with like. Comparing post mortum estimates extrapolated from confirmed cases of H1N1 with confirmed cases of COVID-19 while it hasn't peaked, never mind run its course is an obviously biased perspective.

The better comparison would be with projections of COVID-19 and there are legitimate experts who are convinced that COVID-19 has the potential to be very bad.

But agip knows better. Agip has already determined for us that the real fatality fate for COVID-19 is close to that of the swine flu (0.02% fatality rate) even though WHO has a current estimate of 3.4%.

How does agip know better than WHO? Don't worry, he just knows. He has a hunch.

Moscow Mitch, the trumpanzee bi+ch, needs to get back to KY & campaign!

He’s not gonna be the Majority Leader of his own poop at this rate.

P wrote:

Well, ok then wrote:

It's all imperfect data, but it's it's important to compare like with like. Comparing post mortum estimates extrapolated from confirmed cases of H1N1 with confirmed cases of COVID-19 while it hasn't peaked, never mind run its course is an obviously biased perspective.

The better comparison would be with projections of COVID-19 and there are legitimate experts who are convinced that COVID-19 has the potential to be very bad.

But agip knows better. Agip has already determined for us that the real fatality fate for COVID-19 is close to that of the swine flu (0.02% fatality rate) even though WHO has a current estimate of 3.4%.

How does agip know better than WHO? Don't worry, he just knows. He has a hunch.

We’ll never know the real death rate, many people will get COVID and never get tested for it.

Joe Blow wrote:

P wrote:

But agip knows better. Agip has already determined for us that the real fatality fate for COVID-19 is close to that of the swine flu (0.02% fatality rate) even though WHO has a current estimate of 3.4%.

How does agip know better than WHO? Don't worry, he just knows. He has a hunch.

We’ll never know the real death rate, many people will get COVID and never get tested for it.

P is just going to lie and misrepresent me - I don't know why he wants to do that, but just know much of what he says about me is utter garbage and made up.

agip wrote:

Joe Blow wrote:

We’ll never know the real death rate, many people will get COVID and never get tested for it.

P is just going to lie and misrepresent me - I don't know why he wants to do that, but just know much of what he says about me is utter garbage and made up.

Indeed! Providing EXACT QUOTES of agip's is definitely lying and misrepresenting him.

PRECISE QUOTES of agip are "utter garbage and made up."

P wrote:

Have to ask... wrote:

So you think by 'correcting' someone that you are saving lives?

Look, it's clear you have a firm grasp on math and exponential growth... but like everyone else in the world you do not know the future. You may be right or not... but your predictions are not facts.

You may think you are helping by predicting the apocalypse but in the long run maybe your posts are no better than b wiggins or agips

Reality is better than falsities for dealing with any situation.

As long as you realize that only part of what you are posting are facts and the rest are your predictions based on extrapolation.

One thing I have learned in life is that things do change and do not always go in the direction I think they will go... Things could get much much worse or maybe not... My guess (prediction) is that it will be somewhere between where you are predicting and where b wiggins/agip are predicting. Unless you were alive in 1918 you probably have no more experience with this type of situation than anyone else... this is a whole new experience for all of us.

I'll hope for the best and wish the same for you and everyone else!

agip wrote:

Joe Blow wrote:

We’ll never know the real death rate, many people will get COVID and never get tested for it.

As someone who generally respects your contributions to this thread, your persistence in trying to minimize the potential impact of COVID 19 does seem out of character. The experts aren't always right, but it's usually the way to bet.

P is just going to lie and misrepresent me - I don't know why he wants to do that, but just know much of what he says about me is utter garbage and made up.

As someone who generally respects your contributions to this thread, your persistence in trying to minimize the potential impact of COVID 19 does seem out of character. The experts aren't always right, but it's usually the way to bet.

Have to ask... wrote:

.. My guess (prediction) is that it will be somewhere between where you are predicting and where b wiggins/agip are predicting. !

I'm not predicting anything. I'm trying to figure out how to look at divergent numbers out of Asia and Europe and trying to figure out how to approach it.

Just as an aside, the UK approach is fascinating.

They are actively encouraging young people to get the virus. Many fewer shutdowns there. The UK is also pushing hard to keep the elderly out of the virus' path.

UK thinking is that they want an initial wave of next to harmless virus victims to pass...and then forever after those people are immune. THEN they figure the old and vulnerable will get the virus, but there will be room in the hospitals by then to take care of them.

This is different from the Italian strategy of all out virus prevention.

it's weird. Can't wait to see how the different plans are reviewed when it's all over.

Well, ok then wrote:

agip wrote:

As someone who generally respects your contributions to this thread, your persistence in trying to minimize the potential impact of COVID 19 does seem out of character. The experts aren't always right, but it's usually the way to bet.

P is just going to lie and misrepresent me - I don't know why he wants to do that, but just know much of what he says about me is utter garbage and made up.

As someone who generally respects your contributions to this thread, your persistence in trying to minimize the potential impact of COVID 19 does seem out of character. The experts aren't always right, but it's usually the way to bet.

First off, thanks.

Second off, the experts are not all in agreement with P of mass, mass, mass deaths and destruction. The entire UK plan is based on thinking that being infected isn't so bad for anyone under 65, so they are sort of hoping more young people get it yesterday and today.

Third, if I've 'predicted' things, then that was a mistake and I should not have done that. No one should accuse me of 'predicting' anything.

I'm just trying to figure out some things that don't make sense to me.

Namely:

The nations that had this thing a month ago have killed it. China, Japan, South Korea. Why is that not an incredibly important point? It might be that no one else is doing what they did. I do not know.

There are three hotspots: italy, iran, spain. I wonder if it's fair to exclude them from the stats. Because everywhere else the death figures are in the 1-7 per day. Not percent. Total deaths. Will that shoot up with compound interest to 1000 per day? I dunno. I want to know.

I could go on but I'll repeat P's reliance on extrapolation is dangerous. Look at early graphs of any virus. it looks like we'll all be dead in the early days.

and one more pushback on P:

What he is claiming as 'facts' is absurd. he is extrapolating current numbers into the future and saying it is absolutely inevitable, FACT that the lines will continue to go up on that compound math formula.

To my mind any prediction of the future based except hard-proven science...is really irresponsible.

P should continue to interpret the numbers, but he really should stop with calling his projections facts. They arent' facts, not at all.

China, Japan, SK showed us that viral curves, even on this thing, are not inevitably going in the same direction.

They might. We might have a million dead. But for him to call his projection 'fact' is really wrongheaded.

That's a very risky strategy given that we don't know squat about the immunity of people who have had the disease. The last time I read about this topic, researchers were saying that they don't even know for sure if there is much immunity at all. You might be able to catch it twice in a relatively short period.

On the other hand, what they are doing might just work. I guess we are going to find out and the UK could become the model for future pandemics.

But given how the UK's strategy is exactly the opposite of ours, it is monumentally stupid to exempt the UK from the travel ban. The UK is encouraging carriers and they will carry it to us.

P gets off his medication sometimes. My main concern is not the virus per se, as much as that we’ve painted ourselves into a corner with over-reliance on capitalism & under-reliance on our Constitution.

Fat hurts wrote:

But given how the UK's strategy is exactly the opposite of ours, it is monumentally stupid to exempt the UK from the travel ban. The UK is encouraging carriers and they will carry it to us.

Correction, the UK's strategy is not exactly the opposite of ours. We don't exactly have a strategy at all.

They were very proactive. The lesson is that the worst effects can be mitigated, but it is not painless to do so and squandered time can not be recovered.

I don't know what the basis would be to exclude them beyond their not fitting a narrative that this thing can't be that big a deal. That's Trumpian logic.

The problem in those countries is that they were not proactive and that their health care system has been completely overwhelmed. This is what makes the US test shortage so worrying. We have no idea how widespread this has become, but it's pretty clear the number of documented cases are crap and we can't track the spread.

The extrapolation tops out at some point, but where it tops out depends upon what we do. That's the difference between South Korea and Italy.

Agip - can you provide a link or two about the UK’s approach?

Thanks