Daily Update
Daily case growth (%):
Mar 8: 16.7
Mar 9: 15.8
Mar 10: 15.3
Mar 11: 16.0
Mar 12: 16.6
This means the total number of cases doubles every five days
Daily death growth (%):
Mar 8: 43.1
Mar 9: 34.0
Mar 10: 32.1
Mar 11: 31.0
Mar 12: 29.6
Fatality Rate (Cumulative deaths/cases)
Mar 8: 2.4%
Mar 9: 2.7%
Mar 10: 3.0%
Mar 11: 3.2%
Mar 12: 3.4%
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Q1: Why is case rate rising while death rate is falling?
A1: Good observation. In fact, it is inevitable that over time the case rate and death rate will merge. This just happens to be a period when deaths are rising a whole lot faster than reported cases. Most likely this is due to inadequate testing in such places as the US. It is not so easy to hide a death. Hiding a case is easier - just don't make the test easily available and voilá, the case does not exist!
Q2: So, what do these numbers tell us, overall?
A2: They tell us that we are in seriously deep sh!t UNLESS WE TAKE SERIOUS MEASURES NOW. Staying on our current course will lead to 3 Million cases in the US by the end of next month. The US health care system is not remotely close to being prepared for this.
Hospitals will be turning people away. People who need intubation to survive the worst of it will be told "Sorry, can't help you. Go away and die." Don't believe it? Guess what is happening right now in Italy. This is heading our way, folks UNLESS WE TAKE SERIOUS MEASURES NOW.
Q3: OK, so what are these "Serious measures"?
A3: Cancelling the NBA and NHL seasons was a good start - but only because it sends a very visible signal that these are not ordinary times. Basically the thing to do is to shut everything down. Close all schools. Shut down all public places of gathering. Have anybody who cannot work from home NOT WORK unless they are in an essential industry (public utilities - water, sewage removal, electricity, gas..., food supply chains, medical supply chains, public safety (police, etc))
We COULD drop that 16.6% daily growth rate down to 1 -2 % IF we had the balls to do it. Without such measures we are all going to see some things that we cannot conceive of today and we will all wish we never saw them.
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Sorry to sound a bit more alarmist today. But the numbers are making the near future terrifyingly more clear by the day. The numbers I am providing are correct. The math is undeniable. I do not think that I am exaggerating at this point to say that if any one of you can do anything to influence local or larger policies on this (calling or writing to school districts, elected officials,...) you may well be saving many lives, though you will never have the satisfaction of knowing which ones they were.
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Questions always welcome
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PS - Thanks to the gang here for avoiding posting nonsense on this topic earlier in the day. I hope this is due to people beginning to realize this is very, very serious.