Official LRC President Donald J Trump Thread

Talk of 2020 election is getting more and more interesting the closer we get to it, but just so everyone is aware...

Mueller is coming.

The clown is done.

agip wrote:

and your reason for declaring wrong all the head to head polling that shows Biden doing the best of all Ds against Trump?

You are the only poster with a worse record than agip...

Flagpole wrote:

Talk of 2020 election is getting more and more interesting the closer we get to it, but just so everyone is aware...

Mueller is coming.

The clown is done.

Often wrong but never in doubt wrote:

You are the only poster with a worse record than agip...

Flagpole wrote:

Talk of 2020 election is getting more and more interesting the closer we get to it, but just so everyone is aware...

Mueller is coming.

The clown is done.

My record is quite good actually. Start with the biggest prediction that Trump would not win the 2016 election without cheating (which I was right about, because he cheated) and then work your way from there. I've been right about just about everything with regard to the investigation and those affected so far, and that will continue. Conspiracy/collusion isn't even off the table yet as the House is still looking into that (though to be fair, I DO accept Mueller's finding there that there wasn't enough evidence to prosecute).

Trump will go to prison unless he dies first or there is more crime that prevents it or space aliens prevent it.

Mueller is coming.

The clown is done.

Often wrong but never in doubt wrote:

agip wrote:

and your reason for declaring wrong all the head to head polling that shows Biden doing the best of all Ds against Trump?

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/should-we-take-these-early-general-election-polls-seriously-no/https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/448447-landslide-polls-spark-angst-these-geniuses-saw-clinton-as-unstoppable

ok, fine, agreed, but remember this from your 538 piece. It points out Trump's main weakness: indies. I'd argue that Biden is far more likely to get indies than is a lefty like warren or sanders. Indies don't like extremes, I think. Indies will likely decide the election. Unless young people decide to vote.

"Trump’s real political problem is self-identified independents and voters who don’t love him or hate him. In the 2018 midterms, independents broke heavily for the Democrats in U.S. House elections (+12), as did voters who “somewhat” disapproved of the president (+29), according to exit polls. In this Quinnipiac survey, all the Democratic candidates had double digit leads over Trump among independents, and those are the numbers that should worry the president and his political team."

agip wrote:

Often wrong but never in doubt wrote:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/should-we-take-these-early-general-election-polls-seriously-no/https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/448447-landslide-polls-spark-angst-these-geniuses-saw-clinton-as-unstoppable

ok, fine, agreed, but remember this from your 538 piece. It points out Trump's main weakness: indies.

Trump is underwater with young people. As is the GOP. The majority of new voters will not be voting for Trump.

Weak Trump wrote:

agip wrote:

ok, fine, agreed, but remember this from your 538 piece. It points out Trump's main weakness: indies.

Trump is underwater with young people. As is the GOP. The majority of new voters will not be voting for Trump.

getting young voters to show up and vote is the holy grail for Ds. The nation leans more left than the electorate. Meaning if young people voted at the same rate as old people, we would not have a right wing government.

But so far, to my knowledge, the young people have refused to vote as they should. Maybe anti-trump sentiment will get them to the booth. I hope so.

Weak Trump wrote:

Trump is underwater with young people. As is the GOP. The majority of new voters will not be voting for Trump.

I agree with that, but I don't think new young voters are going to flock to the polls for Biden...blah...

Often wrong but never in doubt wrote:

Weak Trump wrote:

Trump is underwater with young people. As is the GOP. The majority of new voters will not be voting for Trump.

I agree with that, but I don't think new young voters are going to flock to the polls for Biden...blah...

What you are missing is that young voters who did not vote in 2016 will be older in 2020 and more likely to vote. In other words, as young voters get older they start to vote. And the long term trend has been to more likely vote for democrats. But, I do realize that most political pundits believe that young voters who are very conservative will definitely vote, while non-conservative stay home. But, that is has been rapidly turning since before 2016. The GOP is to blame for thinking that they are appealing to younger voters, when in fact they have ignored them.

Well, maybe it is true that age along will get more people to vote, that is certainly a trend. But there are of course four years of people who were not eligible to vote in 2016 that will be eligible in 2020. And four years of voters who have died. I don't think younger voters are going to be energized and turned out in any appreciable numbers by a centrist, moderate, racists, pro-mass-incarceration, pro-war, pro-big business, pro-welfare reform candidate like Joe Biden, no matter how much he appeals to the agips of the world.

Weak Trump wrote:

What you are missing is that young voters who did not vote in 2016 will be older in 2020 and more likely to vote. In other words, as young voters get older they start to vote. And the long term trend has been to more likely vote for democrats. But, I do realize that most political pundits believe that young voters who are very conservative will definitely vote, while non-conservative stay home. But, that is has been rapidly turning since before 2016. The GOP is to blame for thinking that they are appealing to younger voters, when in fact they have ignored them.

tell it to the African americans who will decide the election in the swing states. Right now they are pretty passionate about Joe Biden. You go tell them they are wrong and you are right about who they should vote for.

Bah, not my job. I would note that Biden's support is really only strong among OLDER African American voters. And their support is not passionate, it is a belief in the electability argument. Wouldn't be the first time you supported the worst general election candidate. That is directly responsible for Trump's presidency and if Biden is the nominee the chances of a Trump reelection goes up enormously.https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/05/joe-biden-winning-big-older-voters/589555/

agip wrote:

tell it to the African americans who will decide the election in the swing states. Right now they are pretty passionate about Joe Biden. You go tell them they are wrong and you are right about who they should vote for.

Often wrong but never in doubt wrote:

Bah, not my job. I would note that Biden's support is really only strong among OLDER African American voters. And their support is not passionate, it is a belief in the electability argument. Wouldn't be the first time you supported the worst general election candidate. That is directly responsible for Trump's presidency and if Biden is the nominee the chances of a Trump reelection goes up enormously.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/05/joe-biden-winning-big-older-voters/589555/

agip wrote:

tell it to the African americans who will decide the election in the swing states. Right now they are pretty passionate about Joe Biden. You go tell them they are wrong and you are right about who they should vote for.

The ONE positive thing that having Trump as a President has done is it has energized WOMEN, not only to run for office but to VOTE. That was clear in 2018 voting, and although it is foolhardy to look at a midterm election and decide that the same will happen at the next Presidential election, this midterm was different from all others as we have a President who is different (more criminal, more lying) from all others before him. Trump lost the overall female vote, and it will be even worse for him this time.

He has a very tough road ahead if he is going to win again in 2020. Of course it has been pointed out to me that I have said he has ZERO chance to win in 2020, so I will stand by that (I was right about that in 2016 with him because he cheated and right in 2012 with Mitt Romney)...with the normal caveats of course...can't be cheating, and space aliens can't make us vote for him.

Often wrong but never in doubt wrote:

I don't think younger voters are going to be energized and turned out in any appreciable numbers by a centrist, moderate, racists, pro-mass-incarceration, pro-war, pro-big business, pro-welfare reform candidate like Joe Biden, no matter how much he appeals to the agips of the world.

Your Trumpet hat seems to be welded on to your skull.

Please try not being so obviously biased in the future. Your comment screams of desperation ... "please don't vote, young people, or else Trump will lose in 2020". Thanks in advance.

You have some reading comprehension problems. I dd not vote for Trump and will not vote for him in 2020 either. I said the Dems were being stupid by nominating Clinton. I was right. Some people want to ignore that the dynamics are very similar and go ahead and nominate Biden. Those are the pro-Trump people. Agip is fine with Trump winning, as long as Dems don't nominate one of those wacky liberals...

Hmmmmmm wrote:

Your Trumpet hat seems to be welded on to your skull.

Please try not being so obviously biased in the future. Your comment screams of desperation ... "please don't vote, young people, or else Trump will lose in 2020". Thanks in advance.

Often wrong but never in doubt wrote:

You have some reading comprehension problems.

Nope. You cannot even read your own comment.

You wrote: I would note that Biden's support is really only strong among OLDER African American voters. And their support is not passionate, it is a belief in the electability argument. Wouldn't be the first time you supported the worst general election candidate. That is directly responsible for Trump's presidency and if Biden is the nominee the chances of a Trump reelection goes up enormously.

To assist your peabrain.

President Trump’s internal polling data from March showed him far behind Joe Biden in key battleground states

Often wrong but never in doubt wrote:

You have some reading comprehension problems. I dd not vote for Trump and will not vote for him in 2020 either. I said the Dems were being stupid by nominating Clinton. I was right. Some people want to ignore that the dynamics are very similar and go ahead and nominate Biden. Those are the pro-Trump people. Agip is fine with Trump winning, as long as Dems don't nominate one of those wacky liberals...

Hmmmmmm wrote:

Your Trumpet hat seems to be welded on to your skull.

Please try not being so obviously biased in the future. Your comment screams of desperation ... "please don't vote, young people, or else Trump will lose in 2020". Thanks in advance.

saying I'd prefer trump to warren or sanders is absurd. It's beyond the pale. I demand satisfaction. spike up, my friend.

but seriously, the dynamics are *not* very similar. Trump is an extraordinarily unpopular person, has the lowest approval ratings of just about any president ever, is under water in all the key states, and the Ds are massively motivated to toss him out.

In 2016 people misunderstood trump, and there was a fluke election.

agip wrote:

saying I'd prefer trump to warren or sanders is absurd. It's beyond the pale. I demand satisfaction. spike up, my friend.

but seriously, the dynamics are *not* very similar. Trump is an extraordinarily unpopular person, has the lowest approval ratings of just about any president ever, is under water in all the key states, and the Ds are massively motivated to toss him out.

In 2016 people misunderstood trump, and there was a fluke election.

Candidate Trump was extraordinarily unpopular. In fact, his approval rating was worse as a candidate. His approval closest to the election was 35% favorable and 62% unfavorable. His favorability ratings were much worse then than they are now, when he is about 10 points underwater.

Often wrong but never in doubt wrote:

agip wrote:

saying I'd prefer trump to warren or sanders is absurd. It's beyond the pale. I demand satisfaction. spike up, my friend.

but seriously, the dynamics are *not* very similar. Trump is an extraordinarily unpopular person, has the lowest approval ratings of just about any president ever, is under water in all the key states, and the Ds are massively motivated to toss him out.

In 2016 people misunderstood trump, and there was a fluke election.

Candidate Trump was extraordinarily unpopular. In fact, his approval rating was worse as a candidate. His approval closest to the election was 35% favorable and 62% unfavorable. His favorability ratings were much worse then than they are now, when he is about 10 points underwater.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/189299/presidential-election-2016-key-indicators.aspx

Since Trump took office, his net approval in

Michigan

has

decreased by 20

percentage points.

Since Trump took office, his net approval in

Wisconsin

has

decreased by 19

percentage points.

Since Trump took office, his net approval in

Pennsylvania

has

decreased by 17

percentage points.

Since Trump took office, his net approval in

North Carolina

has

decreased by 22

percentage points.