Peak Age for Distance Runners- Surprising (Stats below)

Training Advice/Discussion General

7 years ago 01/18/2017 10:05pm EST

In each event from 800-Marathon, I averaged the ages of the top 10 male runners when they ran their best times.

800- 22

1500- 25

5000- 21

10000- 23

Marathon- 30

As a 26 year old trying to improve on my college times, it looks like I'm past my prime except for the marathon. What does LetsRun think?

800

Rudisha 23

Kipketer 26

Coe 24

Amos 18

Cruz 21

Khamis 20

Koskei 23

Bungei 22

Aman 19

Borza 20

Average- 22

1500

El G 23

Lagat 26

Kiprop 26

Morceli 25

Kiplagat 24

Ngeny 21

Makhloufi 27

Iguider 28

Farah 30

Kwemoi 18

Average- 25

5000

K Bekele 21

Geb 25

Komen 21

Kipchoge 19

Gebremeskel 22

Sihine 21

Gebrhiwet 18

Koech 18

Songok 22

Alamirew 22

Average- 21

10000

K bekele 23

Geb 25

Tergat 28

Kemboi 19

Negera 21

Kogo 20

Koech 28

Tadese 24

Hissou 24

Hassan 22

Average- 23

Marathon

Kimetto 30

Mutai 29

K bekele 34

Kipchoge 31

Mosop 25

Mutai 29

Kiprotich 34

Makau 26

Biwott 30

Geb 35

Average- 30

7 years ago 01/18/2017 10:23pm EST

re: statsman811

That's some pretty leaky statistical reasoning. You're comparing yourself to an unrepresentative pool of only ten runners per event? Why do you think the greatest of all time at those distances are the appropriate comparison group for you? Why do you think your development parallels theirs?

Basically, you're looking at an unrepresentative small sample. Try again with a better sample. Better yet, just look up the published articles on the same topic.

The short answer, though, is that you're probably as capable or more of setting PRs right now as you ever have been or will be. Stop obsessing about being over the hill for, I don't know, 20 years, and go run.

7 years ago 01/19/2017 12:50am EST

re: statsman811

statsman811 wrote:
In each event from 800-Marathon, I averaged the ages of the top 10 male runners when they ran their best times.
800- 22
1500- 25
5000- 21
10000- 23
Marathon- 30
As a 26 year old trying to improve on my college times, it looks like I'm past my prime except for the marathon. What does LetsRun think?

I think you don't understand correlation vs causation. Your logic isn't even self consistent. For example, you are 26. There are several people in your 1500 list that are 26 or older, but yet you claim that you are past your 1500 prime at 26. That's not how averages work. If one person has broken your idea, then your idea is false.

7 years ago 01/19/2017 1:13am EST

re: Hit me baby one more time

I'm not trying to be negative. I'm encpuraging you to ignore all of that and keep training. As your data shows, there is no specific age of decline.

7 years ago 01/19/2017 1:43am EST

re: Hit me baby one more time

Add several years to many of those ages

7 years ago 01/19/2017 1:46am EST

re: HardLoper

HardLoper wrote:
Add several years to many of those ages

Or: do it again for Americans/countries with reliable birth records and you will get an older average and a better comparison for you

7 years ago 01/19/2017 5:49am EST

re: simple answers

simple answers wrote:
That's some pretty leaky statistical reasoning. You're comparing yourself to an unrepresentative pool of only ten runners per event?

The problem with a large sample of ordinary guys, especially for middle distance, is so many guys stop competing after they get out of college or when they decide to move on with life. The "peak" is unlikely to be their physical peak had they stayed at it. Looking at a sample of elite runners who keep competing for years after college age and when they peaked is more likely to show when the physical peak is.

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