Will Ayana Break 14 in the 5 Today

trackbot! vdot 29:17.45 10km

Her 10000 was soft, so yes, expect a 13.

VDOT for 29:17.45 10km: 74.9

Equivalent race times based on VDOT:

Marathon: 02:15:00

Half marathon: 01:04:26

15K: 00:44:50

10K: 00:29:15

5K: 00:14:04

3Mi: 00:13:33

2Mi: 00:08:44

3200m: 00:08:40

3K: 00:08:05

1Mi: 00:04:05

1600m: 00:04:03

1500m: 00:03:47

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no, and not because she cant but because she is being hassled so bad for her 10k WR.....i thought about this recently and she will do sit and kick like mo.

mo was a mid pack guy till he got on the disciplined micro dosing of EPO, HGH, THG and whatever else. instead of crushing out the 3k, 5k and 10k records he new better. he new if he crushed them out he would be crucified. so he sits and kicks and has made way more money this way. he almost messed up in that 1500m. the monaco track is 2 seconds faster in the 1500m and everyone knows it, so he really ran a 3:30 which is right in line with gebs 3:31. which means if mo wanted to he could run close to the WR's but wont cause he doesnt want to get popped.

ayana will run 14:20-30's and just crush everyone the last 400m mo style

i agree with spencer wrote:

no, and not because she cant but because she is being hassled so bad for her 10k WR.....i thought about this recently and she will do sit and kick like mo.

She did not sit and kick in the 10000.

She did not sit and kick in the semis.

She will not sit and kick tonight.

Except Ayana is known for her complete lack of a sprint finish. Not a chance she leaves it until the last 400m.

Greg Hill wrote:

After her out-of-this-world WR in the 10 earlier in these Games, and in the way she did it with such amazing splits, it seems she has the ability to be the first woman under 14. However, my two-cent opinion is probably not even worth two cents.

But will she break 14 today? Why would she not? Why would she?

For those of you who are more familiar with her 5,000 ability, what do you think?

Maybe if someone takes it out and she can use a rabbit for the first half, but I don't think that's going to happen... Who would take it?

After that 10k, no one is going to want to lead, they know Ayana is just going to make a huge surge and break before anyone can even think to follow

I say she wins in 14:22

id say probably not.she possibly can break it,but i think she'll run solo,and hard,as she always does,and run somewhere between 14.15,and 14.25.she might even slow it down to a 14.30,provided she's well out in front.it all depends on the heat,and conditions,and also how much the world record in the 10'000 has affected her.it might have taken some of the sting out of her legs.

jeff tallon wrote:

id say probably not.she possibly can break it,but i think she'll run solo,and hard,as she always does,and run somewhere between 14.15,and 14.25.she might even slow it down to a 14.30,provided she's well out in front.it all depends on the heat,and conditions,and also how much the world record in the 10'000 has affected her.it might have taken some of the sting out of her legs.

A bet on a world record is currently even money. Thus you can essentially pick:

WR time: -110

no WR time: -110

I don't see her breaking 14 today since she isn't fresh compared to the 10000m. She might be able to run sub 14 eventually but today probably wont be the day. Depending on the race conditions I think she will run 14:15-14:30 and break the pack around the halfway point of the race. She has to gap them early on otherwise she will be at risk of getting outkicked by runners like Vivian Cheruiyot.

If she does break 14 though.... I'd question her ability to recover so well from setting a WR on top of running a 5000m tempo in the semis....

NOP Skeptic wrote:

Greg Hill wrote:

After her out-of-this-world WR in the 10 earlier in these Games, and in the way she did it with such amazing splits, it seems she has the ability to be the first woman under 14. However, my two-cent opinion is probably not even worth two cents.

But will she break 14 today? Why would she not? Why would she?

For those of you who are more familiar with her 5,000 ability, what do you think?

Maybe if someone takes it out and she can use a rabbit for the first half, but I don't think that's going to happen... Who would take it?

After that 10k, no one is going to want to lead, they know Ayana is just going to make a huge surge and break before anyone can even think to follow

I say she wins in 14:22

FTR, WR is 14:11 and OR is 14:40. She gets the OR but not the WR tonight.

There are 5 women with Season Bests in the 14:3x range, and one with a 14:4x. Then there's everyone else above 15:00*

Mercy Chorono, KEN, 14:31 (PR)

Helen Onsando Obiri, KEN, 14:32 (PR)

Yasemin Can (CHN), 14:37 (PR)

Senbere Tefiri (ETH), 14:35 (PR)

Vivian Cheruiot, KEN, 14:35 (PR 14:22, 2011)

Ababel Yeshanah, ETH 14:42 (PR)

* The Norwegian Grovdal has run a PR of 14:57.

These women are all racing for medals and their tactics are not going to be determined by Ayana who is probably untouchable. I would be surprised if the pace did not go out relatively quick, 14:30 pace. Look for the racers to be running 70s for 2400m before Ayana gets bored and runs away from the silver medal contenders, dropping a 66 followed by 68s. She closes in 67 She finishes in 14:18.

Or they play a sit-and-kick game and drop 75s for 12 laps before ratcheting it down. In this scenario, Ayana also gets bored and runs a 14:33 solo and the pack races to a 14:49 silver medal.

The one thing Ayana will NOT do is sit until the last 400m and then attempt to kick. She can't sprint at all. When she loses a race, it's cuz she hasn't pulled away by the last few laps.

I doubt a world record. She already attempted it a few times and her best was 14:12. She doesn't have a rabbit and she's being lambasted in the media as a doper, so I think that will spook her off from attempting a WR.

Greg Hill - are you the BMX biker or the KC Chief running back?

Vivian Cheruiyot ran 29:32 herself so she is not going to be easy to drop, she may be in close to WR shape herself and if Ayana doesn't drop her then she may get outkicked.

The 10k has probably taken the edge off of Ayana's fitness, so I think she will run well and win, with her usual strategy, and will break the OR, but won't break the WR.

If the pace is not fast enough, then it is possible that someone would outkick her, for example Vivian Cheruiyot, who ran 29:32 a few days ago.

jaybird2 wrote:

Greg Hill - are you the BMX biker or the KC Chief running back?

How about Greg Hill the skier?

where can i watch her 5K and 10K videos? or what Olympic day is it on bbciplayer?

Limmo wrote:

Vivian Cheruiyot ran 29:32 herself so she is not going to be easy to drop, she may be in close to WR shape herself and if Ayana doesn't drop her then she may get outkicked.

I think Cheruiyot was 15 seconds back in 2nd when Ayana ran 14:13.

The race will start in 75 minutes.

Race time alert wrote:

The race will start in 75 minutes.

No.